September 2014 observation and discussions

[Geos]

60s on Lake Michigan are getting pushed to the eastern shoreline. Only other warm area is Green Bay.

 

[Tom]

Low/mid 70's for the next 10 days, with a possible 80 here or there, is Primo if you ask me.  This may be the tale sign of the atmosphere giving us a breather before the new LRC pattern sets up in October.

[Niko]

Low/mid 70's for the next 10 days, with a possible 80 here or there, is Primo if you ask me.  This may be the tale sign of the atmosphere giving us a breather before the new LRC pattern sets up in October.

Really looking forward to some warmer air Tom. It will feel great. 

[james1976]

GFS all about a zonal flow for the rest of the month. Super boring. But id rather have that now and hopefully transition to a cold/active pattern in October.

[Tom]

GFS all about a zonal flow for the rest of the month. Super boring. But id rather have that now and hopefully transition to a cold/active pattern in October.

I say, enjoy it while you can buddy.  Before you know it, Winter is around the corner.  I like these cool nights and somewhat warm afternoons.  Still trying to soak up some Vitamin D this year before its too cold outside.  Might have 2 more nice weekends on tap this week and next.  Looking forward to it.  Plus, people still have some time to let their gardens continue to grow.

[gabel23]

I say, enjoy it while you can buddy.  Before you know it, Winter is around the corner.  I like these cool nights and somewhat warm afternoons.  Still trying to soak up some Vitamin D this year before its too cold outside.  Might have 2 more nice weekends on tap this week and next.  Looking forward to it.  Plus, people still have some time to let their gardens continue to grow.

I need to dig some potatoes, I planted 152 hills in late May. With the wet summer we have had I'm interested in seeing how they did. My other part of the garden really thrived this summer! The growing is done now it's all about product; also the equinox is coming in a couple days so bring on the shorter days.

[Geos]

I'm already missing the decreasing daylight. I want to get a couple projects done outside before the 50s and 40s become more common for highs.

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous today..abundant sunshine after a cold morning low of 38F IMBY. Brrrrrrr.

 

Tomorrow should be active with thunderstorms in the pm hour as a coldfront passes over my area. Temps near 80F if you can believe that. Next week It warms into the 70s with tons of sun. I enjoy having nice weather in September and prefer it that way. Once October rolls on in, then, im ready for cold and snowshowers. 

[Tom]

Some small storms starting to fire along the cold front.  Looking meager ATM, but latest HRRR has some real development over the next few hours.

[tim the weatherman]

been hearing that a tornado warning has been issued for southren porter county in nw indiana.

[Geos]

Had a 20 minute downpour earlier today. Soaked everything pretty good - 0.30".

 

Managed to get to 75° today and that was it. Thinking the 80s could be done with for this year.

[Tom]

00z GFS wants to open the 1st week of October more or less like its mid and late November...its only 1 run, but the 12z Euro Control yesterday was showing a major early season arctic shot.  It's hard to dismiss this potential given the pattern we have been in.

[Geos]

Back to the clouds and cool weather. Nice storm really early in the day. Picked up 0.88" between the two complexes in the last 24 hours.

Might head to the lakefront as see what the waves are like today.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Yep, cool showery day so far. Month has been interesting as far as September typically goes. A lot of 50s and 80s this month. Next week looks like a string of ideal weather though.

[Tom]

I have been paying attention to the western pacific and both the GFS and Euro are showing a lot of activity in terms of Typhoon activity near Japan over the next 2 weeks.  Last week I mentioned there was the possibility of 2 Typhoons hitting Japan and that seems to be on track.  The one hitting China today and tomorrow weakens and then tries to redevelop into a solid storm system near Japan by Wednesday.  This system isn't as impressive anymore as it was which may translate to a meager cool down sometime around Oct 1-3.  However, the pattern setting up over the next 10-15 days near East/Asia is turning stormy.  There may in fact be 2 more strong Typhoons that hit the region.  Conditions are favorable to develop strong Typhoons with a large body of warm water to the east of China where the systems will be developing and there isn't much wind shear as well.  Target date for the next Typhoon would be Sept 29th/30th (could be a powerful one.)

 

If these systems do develop and hit near Japan, this will then obviously have an impact to our weather here.  The models will flip back and forth around here, but sometime around Oct 7th and beyond I am expecting the pattern to turn cold/stormy.  Let's see if testing this theory holds together.

[Tom]

12z GFS is looking colder 1st week of October...East Asian Theory coming into play???  00z Euro Control showed this potential last night.

[Tom]

Haven't seen a map like this in years it seems!  It may be this year's version of an "Indian Summer" even though technically its not.

[Tom]

Run after run, both the GFS and Euro Ensembles are showing the Typhoon train hitting East/Asia.  The one towards the end of the month looks big on both models.  We probably will start seeing the models adjusting down the road to a cooler pattern.  12z Euro Ensembles turning that way, although its westward bias of holding back energy and troughs farther west, expect to correct more central U.S. based trough.  AO/NAO turn negative as we head into October as well.

[Geos]

Another cooler than average day today. Cloudy with a few passing light showers today.

 

4km NAM really chilling it off around eastern WI and northern IL later tonight!

 

 

Seeing more color in the trees everday now.

 

This Maple is a little early. Downtown Kenosha

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think most of SE Wisconsin will dip into the 30s, already down to 55F in MKE.

[Geos]

Already 54° here. Definitely should hit 40° tonight.

These cool nights are really speeding up the color.

[Tom]

Already 54° here. Definitely should hit 40° tonight.

These cool nights are really speeding up the color.

With a light wind tonight, lake warming shouldn't be an issue for you to drop low tonight.  I'm heading out on the Chain tomorrow morning to try and catch some Muskey and Walley.  We heard ppl are pulling in some 40"rs now.  Should be ideal conditions tomorrow.  My buddy caught a 48.5" Muskey last weekend on a small lake in S Wisco.

 

Geo's, did you check out the western Pacific Typhoon train on the GFS???  There could literally be a storm that hits Japan every 5 days from the 30th and beyond.  This could translate to a very active pattern in our region in October.  That warm body of water east of China and NE of the Philippines is ripe for development.

[Geos]

With a light wind tonight, lake warming shouldn't be an issue for you to drop low tonight.  I'm heading out on the Chain tomorrow morning to try and catch some Muskey and Walley.  We heard ppl are pulling in some 40"rs now.  Should be ideal conditions tomorrow.  My buddy caught a 48.5" Muskey last weekend on a small lake in S Wisco.

 

Geo's, did you check out the western Pacific Typhoon train on the GFS???  There could literally be a storm that hits Japan every 5 days from the 30th and beyond.  This could translate to a very active pattern in our region in October.  That warm body of water east of China and NE of the Philippines is ripe for development.

 

Yeah I see the lows on the map that far out. That would keep the troughs coming into our region if that were to happen!

[Tom]

D**n, it got down to 34 in Wonder Lake and Alden in Mc Henry county!  Wasn't expecting it that cold this morning.  Definitely a bit nippy out there this morning.  It's going to be one of the best stretches of superb Fall weather that I can remember since 2012.

[Geos]

D**n, it got down to 34 in Wonder Lake and Alden in Mc Henry county!  Wasn't expecting it that cold this morning.  Definitely a bit nippy out there this morning.  It's going to be one of the best stretches of superb Fall weather that I can remember since 2012.

 

Yeah - impressive. Burlington was at 33° this morning. The airport where the temperature is taken is in a bowl shaped area - like Aurora Regional airport is.

 

41° here for a low. Heavy dew was over everything this morning.

[james1976]

Sure is great weather and looks to stay this way for a while. But man.....sure is boring with nothing to track!

[Geos]

Yeah fairly boring weather. A lot of times it is this time of year. "The calm before the storm". Should get active once we get into October, which is only 8 1/2 days away now!

 

Mid 60s right now, which is still a little below normal.

[james1976]

12z GFS continued boredness.

[Geos]

12z GFS continued boredness.

 

Sooner or later the Autumn storms will start blowing up in the Pacific and making their way across the country. More likely in October though.

[Meichel]

12z GFS continued boredness.

 

Shhhh. Don't wake it up. I need to make hay this week. Figuratively. (I'm painting outside.) Gotta bank some $$$ to get my plow ready early this year.

[Tom]

12z GFS continued boredness.

Enjoy it while it lasts, changes are coming as we head into October...this weather reminds me of AZ when I'm there in the Spring, warm days, cool nights...

[Tom]

00z GFS is sniffing out the colder longer range pattern and bringing the coldest air of the season into the region right around Oct 3rd and beyond.  I think this model scores a coup and the Euro may follow (which is odd to say).  Although, today's run on the Euro ensembles are showing a much different tune Day 10-15.

[Tom]

Wow, insane monster trough on the 12z GFS as we roll into October!  What a way to introduce the start of the new LRC pattern this year!  Fits the pattern setting up in the western Pacific with the Typhoon train and correlates well with the East Asian Theory.  Early Freezes are in the cards for the mid section of the nation.  GFS has sniffed out this pattern, unlike the Euro which is usually the one leading the way.

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing the monster trough in early October...

[james1976]

Wow, insane monster trough on the 12z GFS as we roll into October!  What a way to introduce the start of the new LRC pattern this year!  Fits the pattern setting up in the western Pacific with the Typhoon train and correlates well with the East Asian Theory.  Early Freezes are in the cards for the mid section of the nation.  GFS has sniffed out this pattern, unlike the Euro which is usually the one leading the way.

Indeed.....I was happy when looking at today's 12z run.

[james1976]

Some -10 850s showing up in upper midwest on this run.

[Tom]

12z Euro run looking colder in the 8-10 day range now...

 

@ James, that was an insanely cold run, probably too cold, but you never know with the new pattern setting up.

[Geos]

If I'm seeing it right there is a nice snowstorm in the northern Prairie Provinces on the 2nd and 3rd on the 12z GFS.

 

Yep... I am seeing it right!

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=24&model_init_hh=12&fhour=192&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Not this region, but Finland is experiencing early snowfall.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/thick_snowfall_covers_eastern_finland/7486834

[Tom]

If I'm seeing it right there is a nice snowstorm in the northern Prairie Provinces on the 2nd and 3rd on the 12z GFS.

 

Not this region, but Finland is experiencing early snowfall.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/thick_snowfall_covers_eastern_finland/7486834

You stand correct, now both the Euro and GFS are seeing that system in Canada that dumps anywhere from 3-10" of snow up there.  The 12z Euro run showing a huge High building in its wake that has "eye's" for the U.S. towards the end of its run.

[Geos]

Onshore flow kept temps in check up this way today. High 69°. At the end of the day the sky was filled with all kinds of mid and high levels clouds. Taken near the stateline at about 5:30.