February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Heh- there's actually a lot of quality members over there, it's just I'm not sure why some people believe the south track will remain. Models will adjust north, I have no doubt about that.

Hopefully north enough to hit Iowa 

[Tom]

Right Dominick, we could have another week in Chicago where it could dump 20" of snow.  Crazy wx pattern we are having this year.  I always dreamt of a pattern like this when I was a kid, I used to ask my parents all the time how the winters were in the late 70's and now we are in the midst of an incredible winter season.  The pictures in the old family albums had mounds of snow in the city neighborhoods and temps were just as brutal like all the subzero nights we have had so far this season.  My parents are visiting from AZ this weekend and I could just see it in their faces how bad it has been these past few days.

[tim the weatherman]

i think that chicago will be in a sweet spot that we get 20+inches of snow that the storm track will stay the same and go through so il.

[East Dubzz]

i think that chicago will be in a sweet spot that we get 20+inches of snow that the storm track will stay the same and go through so il.

 

[DominicR]

i think that chicago will be in a sweet spot that we get 20+inches of snow that the storm track will stay the same and go through so il.

 

Does someone have a hot dog for him lol.

[6789]

Any estimates of snow now are shots in the dark. I think the most important part, like everyone said last night, was that it's continually showing a fairly significant storm. While there maybe dramatic shifts in the track and amount of snow, as of now, I am happy if it continues to show a big storm, until late this weekend. 

[james1976]

i think that chicago will be in a sweet spot that we get 20+inches of snow that the storm track will stay the same and go through so il.

LOL

[Tom]

00z GFS slowing and digging the big system deep down in TX @ 165HR...

[Money]

suppressed city on the GFS.

[DominicR]

Not surprised.

[Money]

GGEM looks interesting at HR 144

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

 

Any thoughts on that by looking at the B/W maps? 

[East Dubzz]

I don't buy the 00z GFS at all if the PNA does indeed go negative. No way that happens.

[East Dubzz]

GGEM looks interesting at HR 144

 

 

Any thoughts on that by looking at the B/W maps? 

I see high pressure over the East Coast and no real dominant high pressure to the north.

[DominicR]

Long week ahead.

[Tom]

Anytime storms dig that far south into 4 Corners region, they mean business if the eject out into the Midwest/GL

[DominicR]

Anytime storms dig that far south into 4 Corners region, they mean business if the eject out into the Midwest/GL

 

Bingo. Right now just guessing game with models.

[East Dubzz]

Now that is a strong high pressure up north...idk about that!

[winterfreak]

Haven't taken a peek at the GFS yet. What's it look like? On other maps it sure looks like it's digging pretty far south. Depends on where it ejects.

[Scott26]

I don't buy the 00z GFS at all if the PNA does indeed go negative. No way that happens.

yup definitely not supportive of a east coast storm that's for sure

[Money]

For example. 12z GGEM had a 1037 high over Ohio. 0z GGEM same time period has a 1033 H over New York. This thing would def eject out and go farther NW looking at the B/W maps. I guess we'll see in a bit when the full run is up.

[Money]

0z GFS at HR 144 has a 1032 H over WI/MN/IA while lacking a H to the east and south.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

GGEM is gonna be SE a little still. Strong blocking to the north and that SE ridge dissipates. 

[Tom]

00z GGEM goes overboard with the snow...this storm has the potential to become an all out Blizzard.  Arctic High in the Plains, Open Gulf, SE ridge and your in business.  Just need this thing to spin up and phase a little better.

 

 

[Tom]

00z GGEM takes SLP right over NYC...almost impossible with a SE Ridge...

[winterfreak]

Looks like my whole state gets slammed. That would be rather remarkable for many.

[East Dubzz]

00z GGEM takes SLP right over NYC...almost impossible with a SE Ridge...

[East Dubzz]

I think the GGEM want to take more of a NW track, but that high up north won't allow it. It's almost like it's trying to avoid the high up north and the SE ridge, which I guess is plausible if the high up north really is that strong. 

[Money]

UKMET at HR 144 has a much weaker H out in Canada. 

[East Dubzz]

UKMET at HR 144 has a much weaker H out in Canada. 

I really think that's the deciding factor in this storm. At least where it will track.

[Money]

Yeah, check out the high strength and placement

 

UKMET HR 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144

 

GGEM HR 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, check out the high strength and placement

 

UKMET HR 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144

 

GGEM HR 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

Looks much better. I like our chances of that HP being overdone and this thing going further NW.

[MarcusBeier]

WOW

 that is snow porn for SEMI!!

[East Dubzz]

Oh my goodness. The 00z Euro gives surpressed a new meaning. Wow oh wow! If that happens, I'll go do naked snow angels. Id be in too much shock to even feel it!

[Tom]

Tell me about it!  Supression depression...hahaha.  Keeps the system near the Gulf Coast...lol

[Money]

lol at the snow map.

 

20+ for Ark. 8-12 in Texas

[East Dubzz]

It nails Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and most of Tennessee. 1-2 feet in these states! Could you imagine what that would do to areas down there!

[Money]

One inch of snow shuts down areas down in the South. 2 feet would be...

[East Dubzz]

One inch of snow shuts down areas down in the South. 2 feet would be...

I saw you mention a possible brief shift to a +PNA during this time period. Until I start seeing in with the GFS Ensembles, I won't believe it. But how disappointing would that be!

[Jaycee]

Hope this thing turns in to a bowling ball and plows all of us rather than everyone down south. They don't even want it probably! Give it to us folks up here. Probably a little too far NW up in Nebraska for this system unfortunately , d*** high pressure, you're ruining my life!

 

 

00z GFS... please don't do this again. Looks wayy too familiar. Where is this SE Ridge man?!?!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif