February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Scott26]

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet

[Geos]

Another week to go with that one above^. Models are too all over the place to start a thread for that one yet.

 

@ East Dubzz. That quite the snowfall depth. I shovel my porch partially... later on I'll post a few pictures from here.

[gabel23]

Yeah, it's been freezing over here this year! Right now it's because we have one of the deepest snowpacks I've seen in my life, with maybe our record breaking 07-08 year being the exception. 

 

Here is a picture of all the accumulated snowfall on my deck:

 

Very impressive! What's your snow depth?

[East Dubzz]

Very impressive! What's your snow depth?

I haven't measured mine in a while. Dubuque has around 7-8" snow depth I think, or at least that. Mine is a little more because I get a lot of shade during the sunny days, I would say I have a good 10" at least in most places.

[DominicR]

GFS hammers MO/IL and good chunk of IN with day 7-8 storm. Chicago does well but sharp cut-off with northern burbs but this actually a solid wound up system!

[james1976]

gotta love that big H. bring back the clipper train here in northern iowa.

[East Dubzz]

Predicted low of -10 tonight. Already down to 1.

[Geos]

Predicted to hit -4° here tonight. 11° currently.

 

Couple pics from yesterday.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Down to -2 here now, and that's with a 7pmh wind still, so Radiational cooling hasn't even had that big of an effect yet. We may just get colder than -10.

[East Dubzz]

Down to -2 here now, and that's with a 7pmh wind still, so Radiational cooling hasn't even had that big of an effect yet. We may just get colder than -10.

Winds still at 7 mph, but the temp dropped to -7!!

[Tom]

ORD down to 1F, dropping like a rock...would like to see a sub zero night to tack on to this winter season.

 

Edit: TWC must be on crack, their readings always seem off.  Temp only at 8F.

[Geos]

Hit +2° here, but now back up to +5°.

[james1976]

Predicted to hit -4° here tonight. 11° currently.

 

Couple pics from yesterday.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-97812900-1391386714.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-89914500-1391386724.jpg

love these pics!

[winterfreak]

Friday storm doing a dissapearing act on the GFS.

[midwest buildit]

i don't even see anything on the models for this weekend..

[DominicR]

06z GFS back north again and then does a transfer. Good hit for MO/C IL. Some of same places getting hit tommorow.

[Geos]

love these pics!

 

On average the snow depth is 11". But it is high as 15-16" and low as 4".

 

Already a 13° temperature rise.

[Tony]

I'm not sure what the outcome of this weekends storm will be and I hope I am very wrong but my hunch tells me we will miss out on this as well. The systems seem to be riding the southern route and then blowing up on the east coast. Looks like a snowy period showing up on the models but that nasty High just keeps pushing these south of us.

[Tom]

Very impressive radiational cooling last night in the western suburbs.  Sterling, IL got down to -27F!  ORD reached -4F.

[Tom]

It would have been nice to get a bomb around are region this weekend.  To bad the models have lost it and are now bringing it on the east coast.  Still got time to see how this develops but signs are pointing the other way around.

[East Dubzz]

It would have been nice to get a bomb around are region this weekend. To bad the models have lost it and are now bringing it on the east coast. Still got time to see how this develops but signs are pointing the other way around.

Signs also pointed for this upcoming storm to go further north, and look how that turned out...

[Tom]

00z Euro Ensembles showing signs of nasty cold coming down into the Lower 48 mid month after a temporary relief.

 

 

[Tony]

There are some METS on Americanwx chiming in on this storm which is always a plus and a learning experience as well. They are pretty much saying in a nutshell that they believe that the slp is to far east. Here are some exerps from their posts:

 

"Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount"

"Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough"

 

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

 

"You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low"

 

"Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement"     
 

 

"When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others"

[james1976]

There are some METS on Americanwx chiming in on this storm which is always a plus and a learning experience as well. They are pretty much saying in a nutshell that they believe that the slp is to far east. Here are some exerps from their posts:

 

"Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount"

"Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough"

 

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

 

"You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low"

 

"Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement"     

 

 

"When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others"

interesting stuff.

[Geos]

Definitely looking warmer next week. EURO Day 7-9.

 

 

If this happens than a lot of snow pack is going to get eaten up. Could complicate any further cold outbreak afterwards.

 

EDIT: 12z EURO has widespread area of 10-20° above normal across the Midwest by next Wednesday.

[Tony]

There are some METS on Americanwx chiming in on this storm which is always a plus and a learning experience as well. They are pretty much saying in a nutshell that they believe that the slp is to far east. Here are some exerps from their posts:

 

"Agreed. At least it's very apparent that the GFS is erroneously jumping the surface low center to the warm sector convection instead of tucked in closer to the midlevel trough hundreds of miles away over the OV as it should. This will make it easier to discount"

"Even the RGEM to an extent tries to do what the GFS is doing, the difference being it starts the low much further north and in a more correct location with regards to the upper level trough"

 

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

 

"You can see it as you tick through the hours, once the convection weakens the RGEM refocuses back at the main low"

 

"Yup, that's clear to see there, so it's conceivable that even the RGEM, while much better than the GFS, might be too far southeast at least initially with the slp placement"     

 

 

"When a storm system taps pacific moisture it almost always overperforms. Check out the huge moist plume from the south/central Pacific on water vapor. That would suggest that the models with the higher QPF totals might be more representative than the others"

Sorry guys but this is for the upcoming storm and not for this wekend. I will move it to the correct thread.

[Niko]

WOW.......Euro buries the East Coast with next weekend's storm. Thats a 18"+ storm and an all out massive blizzard. Most cities will be paralyzed under feet of snow.

 

[Geos]

WOW.......Euro buries the East Coast with next weekend's storm. Thats a 18"+ storm and an all out massive blizzard. Most cities will be paralyzed under feet of snow.

 

 

Yeah I'm seeing 28-30" from Philadelphia to Cape Cod.

 

I think things are winding down this far north and west for awhile. 

[Tony]

We all know how models have performed and Euro has shown big storms for the east coast only to take it away a couple days later.

[Tony]

Wrong thread again

[jaster220]

We all know how models have performed and Euro has shown big storms for the east coast only to take it away a couple days later.

 

True, but that was like Nov or early Dec. This IS the time of year that climo would favor them scoring. Plus, our bottle of "NW trend" is running low..

[Sleather]

You know, on wunderground, the GFS shows lots of activity around the 18th-19th.... for the Great Lakes area. Long, long time from now though.

[Tom]

18z GFS coming back north for this weekend's system....

[Tony]

18z GFS coming back north for this weekend's system....

Hopefully to stay this time around

[Geos]

Low is way down in Louisiana though.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'm happy to hear about it geos. I hate to say it, but I'm ready for a torch. 40s with light winds would feel like heaven, but we probably won't see that until April LOL.

[Tom]

No big warm ups in sight, models are beginning to pick up on Greenland Blocking in 1-2 week range.  This may be the first time that a dominant -NAO will be in the works this winter.  If that happens, we could have a cold March as well.  Been waiting for this so called "hand off" teleconnection wise was going to happen.  Euro also trending colder in long range.  It'll be interesting if we ever do get into a prolong warm period, might not happen till later in March if Blocking develops.

[Sleather]

No big warm ups in sight, models are beginning to pick up on Greenland Blocking in 1-2 week range.  This may be the first time that a dominant -NAO will be in the works this winter.  If that happens, we could have a cold March as well.  Been waiting for this so called "hand off" teleconnection wise was going to happen.  Euro also trending colder in long range.  It'll be interesting if we ever do get into a prolong warm period, might not happen till later in March if Blocking develops.

Better warm up in later March! I'm sitting on Bonita Springs Beach then...

[Geos]

No big warm ups in sight, models are beginning to pick up on Greenland Blocking in 1-2 week range.  This may be the first time that a dominant -NAO will be in the works this winter.  If that happens, we could have a cold March as well.  Been waiting for this so called "hand off" teleconnection wise was going to happen.  Euro also trending colder in long range.  It'll be interesting if we ever do get into a prolong warm period, might not happen till later in March if Blocking develops.

 

Might want to look at the EURO for next week. It isn't cold Tuesday - 240 hours! In fact it would mean mid 40s for this area if it becomes true. The blocks in March usually don't act quite the same as December - February.

 

GFS isn't in complete agreement, but it does get it above freezing next week. 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Might want to look at the EURO for next week. It isn't cold Tuesday - 240 hours! In fact it would mean mid 40s for this area if it becomes true. The blocks in March usually don't act quite the same as December - February.

 

GFS isn't in complete agreement, but it does get it above freezing next week. 

 

EURO_240hr.jpg

Holy smokes!!!! That's looks warm, it's about time!!! That said, it would probably cause se bad fog around here for a couple days..