February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[The Snowman]

For anyone interested, made a post on my blog about this storm. Lots of things favoring the northward track over the southern one.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/01/february-4-6-potentially-significant.html

[East Dubzz]

East Dubzz, the AO wont dictate if this storm becomes a monster. Phasing is the key and if it goes neg tilt. AO can also dictate storm track but that's primarily for those in the Plains.

I guess my thought was that if the AO was negative it would surpresses it more and keep it weaker. Geos kind of explains my thinking with what I was trying to say, I just used poor wording with what I was trying to say.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I guess my thought was that if the AO was negative it would surpresses it more and keep it weaker. Geos kind of explains my thinking with what I was trying to say, I just used poor wording with what I was trying to say.

 

The AO/NAO matter moreso when combined with a favorable/unfavorable PNA.  In this case we have a favorable one for a SE Ridge and amplification of a storm it looks like.

[tim the weatherman]

if we get a high over the dakotas and a southeast ridge that means that chicago is in the sweet spot for this monster storm to hit with a blizzard.

[East Dubzz]

Okay that makes sense.

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_30.png

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_31.png

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_32.png

[winterfreak]

Euro is way to far south. Really healthy looking storm though.

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_33.png

 

 

Total QPF through HR 192

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_33.png

 

 

This has classic NW trend written all over it as we get closer.

[Money]

Regardless of where this goes, this will produce a foot+ of snow somewhere with this wide open gulf. 

[Geos]

 

 

 

Total QPF through HR 192

 

 

 

 

This has classic NW trend written all over it as we get closer.

 

I definitely think it will. SE ridge, rising NAO should do it.

[Scott26]

Regardless of where this goes, this will produce a foot+ of snow somewhere with this wide open gulf. 

Yup 12Z was a pretty big shift north from the 0Z so we're in good shape for even more of a NW trend as we get closer. I still see this as more of a Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit storm similar to what the 12Z GFS showed.

[DominicR]

Agree Scott. That one big looking storm coming in from s/w.

[gosaints]

Basically any track is on the table.  This thing is way out

[Tony]

I could be wrong but where the baroclinic zone sets up shop will be huge as to who gets the brunt of this storm. I could not tell on the Euro if this went negative tilt but that will play a factor as well. Add into a wide open GOM and this is going to go BOOM and bury alot of cities along the way and hopefully Chitown is its path.

[East Dubzz]

Come on, you in Chicago already had a huge storm this year, can't you at least share some of this one!? Lol

[Tony]

Come on, you in Chicago already had a huge storm this year, can't you at least share some of this one!? Lol

You will be included in the path of one of the places getting burried!

[winterfreak]

Yeah Chicago has had its fair share.

[Tony]

February is going to be a crazy month so there will be plenty of "spread the wealth" storms so no need to worry.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Come on, you in Chicago already had a huge storm this year, can't you at least share some of this one!? Lol

 

I think you have a shot at this, though you're definitely on the NW side of the likely solutions that could take place.

[East Dubzz]

I think you have a shot at this, though you're definitely on the NW side of the likely solutions that could take place.

Yeah I agree. I mean I don't need to be in the sweet spot (although that would be great), but I would like to get a nice storm out of this. Asking for 6" out of a storm this big isn't too much to ask, is it?

 

That said, it's still a week out. A week!!! We've seen models do crazy things within a day of the storm, who knows how this could unfold!

[Tom]

I'd like to see this storm go neg tilt, we haven't had a big one yet so far this season that went neg.  Chicago's NYE storm was a long duration event and the following system was pretty much the same thing but had more LES.  It would be nice to see a bomb of a storm that would spread the wealth a lot more this time around.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

[winterfreak]

Looks like another doozy for Chicago. Sigh.

[gosaints]

As is depicted negative tilt is out of the question.  Need the northern stream wave to slow down for that to happen.  Who knows could easily happen, but also could see the northern piece speed even more and then we get a sheared out piece of crap.  

[Tony]

I'm guessing the 18z gfs was a bad run as it is very quiet in here.

[East Dubzz]

18z was terrible for everyone on here. Still a week out, we're likely going to see some major changes.

[Tom]

Ya, it was farther south and a looked like a sheared wave.  LOT saying that there will be corrections in the coming days and they expect strengthening and the sweet spot to be near our area.

[The Snowman]

Highly doubting those far south solutions. Model aren't recognizing the -PNA yet- give it time, they'll adjust.

[East Dubzz]

Highly doubting those far south solutions. Model aren't recognizing the -PNA yet- give it time, they'll adjust.

Pretty fun seeing you go at it with the posters over on Accuweather. I'm assuming that's you over there at least. I just don't see the far southern solution happening, and they should have their doubts, because honestly, when a model shows you in the jackpot zone this far out, that's usually not good.

[Geos]

JB thinks next week's storm will be a cutter. 

 

Also was showing the EPO goes positive late next week.

[midwest buildit]

Skilling:

 

 

I dont understand how this is the 5th snowiest winter, are we talken to date or total annual. cause according to this from noaa, theres a whole lot more high snow totals than like that pic above that skilling is showing.

 

am i confused or looking at it the wrong way?

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_seasonal_snow

 

 

Yes, based on the graphic, it is the 5th snowiest winter for Chicago to date.

 

did you go to the noaa site and see the season snow totals? there seem to be quite a few missing from skillings graphic..again,what am i missing?

[Money]

Pretty fun seeing you go at it with the posters over on Accuweather. I'm assuming that's you over there at least. I just don't see the far southern solution happening, and they should have their doubts, because honestly, when a model shows you in the jackpot zone this far out, that's usually not good.

 

That site is so full of weenies. They always think a storm is going to go SE. NW trends more often than not wins in these situations. Wide open gulf, SE ridge that will probably be underdone, blocking that will probably be overdone in the long range (just like we saw from this upcoming storm system) a strong SW system etc. These are storms that are often underdone by models and usually trend stronger/north as we get closer.  

[Geos]

That site is so full of weenies. They always think a storm is going to go SE. NW trends more often than not wins in these situations. Wide open gulf, SE ridge that will probably be underdone, blocking that will probably be overdone in the long range (just like we saw from this upcoming storm system) a strong SW system etc. These are storms that are often underdone by models and usually trend stronger/north as we get closer.  

 

NAO is staying positive, I don't know why they're talking about this storm heading towards them. In fact I think it's going to get quite mild on the East Coast next week.

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS PNA:

12z Euro PNA:

Both are and having been showing a pretty strong dip into the negative territory, but the Euro does have a -AO around this time period too, which would support the track it's showing. I think the PNA will be well negative and like you said Money, a stronger SE ridge in place than what it's showing. And most of the GFS ensembles showing a neutral or positive AO/NAO, which like Goes said, would not support a track that far SE either. I think signs definitely point in our favor, they just don't want to admit that over there. They would rather hold on to model runs a week out.

[tim the weatherman]

going to be a kc to chi special like tom said

[Tom]

Those ppl on the east coast are just hoping and praying for this storm to transpire.  Almost all the 500mb ensembles are indicating a east coast ridge and there is no way a storm will take a SE track.  Today all the models bounced back NW and I expect this to happen as we get closer to the storm period.  Remember, the LRC pattern we are cycling back into is going to be similar to the pattern we had in December (predominant SE Ridge).  The Feb 4-5th storm will be a "Cutter" and all I have to say is...LRC...it has done extremely well matching up systems this winter (esp the rain storm we got that dumped over 1" of rain a few weeks back).  I called it tracking through N IL and what did it do, it tracked up through N IL and brought warm dewpoints and torrential rains that nearly whiped out all of our beautiful snow pack from the 2 big snow storms during the 1st week of January.

 

The system this Fri/Sat is taking nearly an identical track it took in Cycle 2 of the LRC and the storm for Feb 4-5 should take something similar just a bit more south through S IL I'm thinking.

[The Snowman]

Pretty fun seeing you go at it with the posters over on Accuweather. I'm assuming that's you over there at least. I just don't see the far southern solution happening, and they should have their doubts, because honestly, when a model shows you in the jackpot zone this far out, that's usually not good.

Heh- there's actually a lot of quality members over there, it's just I'm not sure why some people believe the south track will remain. Models will adjust north, I have no doubt about that.

[DominicR]

Heh- there's actually a lot of quality members over there, it's just I'm not sure why some people believe the south track will remain. Models will adjust north, I have no doubt about that.

 

Time to stock up and hide from the real world This is a once in a lifetime deal Chicago.