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February 2014 Observations and Discussion

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

I saw you mention a possible brief shift to a +PNA during this time period. Until I start seeing in with the GFS Ensembles, I won't believe it. But how disappointing would that be!

 

One of the mets on American posted that. Models are really struggling right now.

 

From Chicago Storm on American:

 

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/560/l6d3.jpg

 

 

"Original main disturbance is the nonsense in the Mid-Atl."

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Niko
Niko

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such

Tom
Tom

Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs.  This could become a monster.  Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system.  Snow ratios w

Tom
Tom

Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard???    

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

It would make sense for high pressure and cold to surpresses this storm. Cold air has dominated this entire winter, why not keep it going?

Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad.

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad.

I wasn't saying that's what I wanted. I'm saying the cold has been dominant this year and wouldn't surprised me if it kept being that way. I want a warm up and more moisture, which is why a change to a -PNA has me excited, unless it's just gonna go back positive when a storm like this develops!

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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I wasn't saying that's what I wanted. I'm saying the cold has been dominant this year and wouldn't surprised me if it kept being that way. I want a warm up and more moisture, which is why a change to a -PNA has me excited, unless it's just gonna go back positive when a storm like this develops!

Gotcha. High Pressures are never fun when they're smack dab over top of ya. I totally agree with what you're saying. I'm all for those monster "spring-like" storms, with severe wx and intense blizzards on the backside. Definitely ready for February, usually the transition month to storms like that.

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Gotcha. High Pressures are never fun when they're smack dab over top of ya. I totally agree with what you're saying. I'm all for those monster "spring-like" storms, with severe wx and intense blizzards on the backside. Definitely ready for February, usually the transition month to storms like that.

We can only hope so. I want a bowling ball track that nails everyone on the Plains and GL forums!

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

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Looks like yet another miss. Models habeen showing a surpressed storm with great consistency for a day now. Still some time left though I guess.

 

So long to go. It's nothing new. Did you really expect to see what you saw the other day? That was pretty nice I will tell you that but goes to show you.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
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00z GGEM takes SLP right over NYC...almost impossible with a SE Ridge...

The map you posted of the ggem doesn't really show a se ridge though. The high is way off the coast of Pennsylvania to the east and the other high is over North Dakota to the north. I'm not liking our chances here in Nebraska at least.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Not sure if you're serious haha but drought is killing us in the Plains, and I'm pretty sure if that keeps up that will essentially affect you guys too if it gets really bad.

Low snowfall in winter doesn't automatically mean we're in devastating drought. The avg qpf here is about 2.5" total for Dec to Feb. We've had about 5" of snow here in Omaha this winter which is about 10" below avg. In the winter you have way less evaporation due to low temps low sun angle and a lot of moisture running off due to frozen ground. People always overestimate the effect of low snowfall in the winter. That's why all of eastern Nebraska is only at a D0 on the drought monitor. If we get no moisture in April and May then things will go downhill fast

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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why is everyone talking about a SE ridge all the time. There isnt a SE ridge. They just got nailed with a winter storm. A lot of wishcasting going on. This SE ridge better happen fast if we're gonna get this storm.

It is forecasted to make an appearance

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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why is everyone talking about a SE ridge all the time. There isnt a SE ridge. They just got nailed with a winter storm. A lot of wishcasting going on. This SE ridge better happen fast if we're gonna get this storm.

The PNA is forecasted to go negative soon, which would mean a SE Ridge would be in place. You are correct, there is currently not one is place, but the PNA is positive right now and dipping towards negative, which would support a SE ridge being put in place. The strength and influence on the storm could be a little wish casting on our part, but that fact that we believe there will be a SE ridge is supported.

 

That's why the DVN mentioned the models could be struggling, because the U.S is going under a pattern change. AO/NAO are going neutral/positive and PNA is supposed to go negative, and models often struggle when changes like this are occurring. Not saying the models will be wrong for sure, but it's not set in stone yet.

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

You can see how important that high is to the west on these two frames of the GGEM:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_27.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_28.png

 

 

That thing cuts more NNE compared to ENE if that high to the west is weaker or pushed off more to the west. That's why it's going to be very important to see how the models handle that big high.

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Money Proficient

Money

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UKMET is much weaker with the high than the GGEM. 18 MB weaker to be exact. Ukie has a 1042 H in Canada in about the same spot while GGEM has 1060. UKMET would be a more northern solution if it went out farther based on the maps here:

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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As Money said, baby steps NW trend...still showing a monster

 

It has more potential to keep on going too. NAO will be near +1 by then. 

 

Rather get a couple good systems with wetter snow vs. these dinky 1-3" powder events that compact down right away.

 

Just to show how much moisture the GGEM is showing through 174 hours.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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