January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 48/35 average at SLE this month is only 1.1 degrees above average. Shows you how awful the 1981-2010 norms were. If we ever have a classic cold January it will have an off the charts negative departure from the 30 year norm....

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does show Seattle and the stadium in the rain shadow from 1-4 p.m. tomorrow.    

 

Game starts at 12... and there is rain shown from 10-1 on the same run.    So looks like maybe some vigorous showers to start the game and then some sun breaks in the second half.

 

http://s11.postimg.org/he7c6hqs2/nfc.jpg

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Dude... I lived in San Diego for 12 years.   I know the deal.

 

FOLLOW ALONG... Fred said he does not like the fact that days are getting longer and brighter and he said its all downhill until October.     I said that I DO like seasons here.    THE NORMAL SEASONS OF THE PNW.   

 

Why do i have to to move to a place with no seasons and nothing but sun because I like our seasons here??   Short winter days and long, sunny summer days.  

 

You are either not reading or very dense.     People who like dark all year long should move to Juneau.   That is not normal here.   I will take our normal weather.   Looking forward to summer now!

 

(for the record... I am not angry but just have no idea what you are talking about and trying to be crystal clear for you)  

 

Que the a**-hattery--"You are either not reading or very dense."

 

I didn't address you in that manner--I was just engaging you in a bit of friendly banter.  But I've learned my lesson again.  So, go stick your head in a box.

[MossMan]

For me, as soon as mid March comes along I am done with winter and just want dry, sunny and warm until mid October with an occasional thunderstorm mixed in and perhaps a heatwave or two as well. I do think we will see snow next month however, perhaps even a big event! And we always have sloppy snow in March no matter what it seems like.

[TT-SEA]

Que the a**-hattery--"You are either not reading or very dense."

 

I didn't address you in that manner--I was just engaging you in a bit of friendly banter.  But I've learned my lesson again.  So, go stick your head in a box.

 

 

1) Fred said he does not like our normal seasonal weather... he wants short, dark days all year long and he does not like what will happen between now and October.

 

2) I said that I like seasons here.

 

3) You said I should move to San Diego and that you agree with Fred.

 

Makes perfect sense!

[Jesse]

Looks like it could get rather warm later this evening once the southerlies kick in.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1) Fred said he does not like our normal seasonal weather... he wants short, dark days all year long and he does not like what will happen between now and October.

 

2) I said that I like seasons here.

 

3) You said I should move to San Diego and that you agree with Fred.

 

Makes perfect sense!

 

And all week long you've been talking about how nice and sunny it's been--even when you know that's not particularly interesting in a weather forum.  You work soooooo hard at being right all the time.  Perhaps you should learn to play well with others first.  But what do I know--I'm not here to judge.

 

I know this for sure, frendly banter between us won't happen for a while, if ever, because it violates the 11th Commandment--no good deed goes unpunished.

[TT-SEA]

And all week long you've been talking about how nice and sunny it's been--even when you know that's not particularly interesting in a weather forum. You work soooooo hard at being right all the time. Perhaps you should learn to play well with others first. But what do I know--I'm not here to judge.

 

I know this for sure, frendly banter between us won't happen for a while, if ever, because it violates the 11th Commandment--no good deed goes unpunished.

 

I have barely posted at all this week... when I did I was recognizing the weather that was actually happening as being pleasant.  At times in response to people complaining about fog.

 

Can't win... I have not complained at all about anything this entire winter. Not once about rain. And if I try to be positive about the tangible weather then you claim I am trying to be right?

 

None of this makes any sense. There is very little else to talk about other than the current weather and there were some nice days this week. Sorry about that.

[ShawniganLake]

The euro is not horrible. Obviously we need the ridge to retrograde a little further but it's closeish to being okay.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF says the possible cold snap is on again.  There have been a minority of very cold GFS ensemble members as well.  The ensemble mean shows a massive area of above normal heights over Alaska and the Aleutians late in week two.  That would normally be favorable for us, but this season has been unreliable in that regard.

[snow_wizard]

The euro is not horrible. Obviously we need the ridge to retrograde a little further but it's closeish to being okay.

 

I think it's actually better than that.  The surface pressure maps indicate a good reinforcement on it's way at the end of the run that would probably dig toward us.

 

The 500mb maps show much of the block centered at 150W while the bottom part of the block is still being forced westward.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I have barely posted at all this week... when I did I was recognizing the weather that was actually happening as being pleasant.  At times in response to people complaining about fog.

 

Can't win... I have not complained at all about anything this entire winter. Not once about rain. And if I try to be positive about the tangible weather then you claim I am trying to be right?

 

None of this makes any sense. There is very little else to talk about other than the current weather and there were some nice days this week. Sorry about that.

 

I agree with everything in this post--except I didn't appreciate being called dense.  You didn't say anything negative about the weather itself--you noted it was nice up there and I'm sure it was.  And I didn't say anything about you being negative this winter--I recall very little of negativity--history suggests you tend to do it when the board gets worked up over incoming snow--by showing the various ways it won't snow.  I don't know if it's because you're trying to turn over a new leaf or because we've had no winter weather to speak of this year--but it really doesn't matter either way.

 

Fact is I just thought a little friendly discussion with you would be interesting and fun since you were here and I knew of your history in San Diego.   I simply didn't expect you to attack my intelligence.  It seems a bit short sighted and unfriendly.

[ShawniganLake]

I think it's actually better than that. The surface pressure maps indicate a good reinforcement on it's way at the end of the run that would probably dig toward us.

Yea could be. The thing is that whenever a cold shot shows up in the models, it seems to end up being the default, ridge slightly too close setup. Obviously things could and will likely change, but it sure would be nice to see something drop down slightly farther west for a change.

[Phil]

The 12z ECMWF says the possible cold snap is on again. There have been a minority of very cold GFS ensemble members as well. The ensemble mean shows a massive area of above normal heights over Alaska and the Aleutians late in week two. That would normally be favorable for us, but this season has been unreliable in that regard.

I think it's kind of funny, actually, that the one time you guys actually need a -NAO, it doesn't show up for work. Lol

[TT-SEA]

I agree with everything in this post--except I didn't appreciate being called dense.  You didn't say anything negative about the weather itself--you noted it was nice up there and I'm sure it was.  And I didn't say anything about you being negative this winter--I recall very little of negativity--history suggests you tend to do it when the board gets worked up over incoming snow--by showing the various ways it won't snow.  I don't know if it's because you're trying to turn over a new leaf or because we've had no winter weather to speak of this year--but it really doesn't matter either way.

 

Fact is I just thought a little friendly discussion with you would be interesting and fun since you were here and I knew of your history in San Diego.   I simply didn't expect you to attack my intelligence.  It seems a bit short sighted and unfriendly.

 

 

Pretty dense to tell someone they should move to San Diego for commenting how on they like the seasonal variety here with short winter days and long, sunny summer days... in other words normal PNW weather.    How does that make sense?

 

I am the one defending our normal weather... why should I move to San Diego?       

[Parksvillewx]

I like the 12z Euro. The last 2 frames are nice and at least its something to watch.

[TT-SEA]

I was referring to sun angle. I love it when it hangs low in the sky. A sunny day in mid December is kind of enjoyable with world basked in a golden glow.

 

Yes... that is nice.   Enjoy the seasons!

 

No need to dread a beautiful summer ahead.   That is part of our climate as well.   

[stuffradio]

I think it's kind of funny, actually, that the one time you guys actually need a -NAO, it doesn't show up for work. Lol

It's not that funny to me.

[ShawniganLake]

Quite a potent system looking to develop offshore today.  In my area, seems like we might expect winds gusting in to 45mph range early tomorrow morning.  If the center comes ashore about 100 miles farther south than modelled, it could be stronger.  Looks similar to the storm in early November that knocked out power for 2 days here. 

[epiceast]

I like the 12z Euro. The last 2 frames are nice and at least its something to watch.

It does look nice, maybe better snow opportunities than our copious blocking opportunities provided this winter. Seems like the ridge will balloon into Alaska in the next 48 hours before disappearing, I bet hour 264 would remind everyone of Nov '10 event. Lots of different flow perturbations over PNW, so at least snow is likely. I bet the cold crew headed by Jim & Tim will be here to ruin everyone's parade soon enough though.

[snow_wizard]

Wow the 48/35 average at SLE this month is only 1.1 degrees above average. Shows you how awful the 1981-2010 norms were. If we ever have a classic cold January it will have an off the charts negative departure from the 30 year norm....

 

That is the one good thing about the normal being so high now.  Something like Jan 1950 would look pretty insane.

[snow_wizard]

I think it's kind of funny, actually, that the one time you guys actually need a -NAO, it doesn't show up for work. Lol

 

It is pretty ridiculous alright.  I totally agree a neg NAO would have resulted in us getting blasted earlier this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everything has been to splitty and muddled with the 500mb configurations. Thats why an Aluetian high this year won't mean much. They'll be some split cut off low about 500 miles offshore in the middle of the ridge ******* everything up.

[snow_wizard]

I like the 12z Euro. The last 2 frames are nice and at least its something to watch.

 

It has been good 3 of the past 4 runs.  It could be onto something.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Pretty dense to tell someone they should move to San Diego for commenting how on they like the seasonal variety here with short winter days and long, sunny summer days... in other words normal PNW weather.    How does that make sense?

 

I am the one defending our normal weather... why should I move to San Diego?       

 

There it is again.  For some reason,you just don't seem to understand how to communicate in ways that don't challenge intelligence of others since you don't seem to understand the difference between friendly banter and challenges to your way of thinking.  To suggest a comment is dense continues to demonstrate that you don't know how to play well with others.  You can twist the words of other posters if you wish, but not mine.  As I previously noted, no good deed goes unpunished.

 

Let's do each other a favor.  You stay off my posts and I'll stay off yours.  That should not be hard for either of us to do.  No need to reply to this unless you have the overwhelming need to get in the last word. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It has been good 3 of the past 4 runs.  It could be onto something.

 

I hope you're right!  Try as I might, I'm just not seeing it consistently in any of the models--but they could be playing catchup.

[epiceast]

It has been good 3 of the past 4 runs.  It could be onto something.

How about other models? Any support outside of the ensemblies?

[snow_wizard]

Everything has been to splitty and muddled with the 500mb configurations. Thats why an Aluetian high this year won't mean much. They'll be some split cut off low about 500 miles offshore in the middle of the ridge ******* everything up.

 

You really have no way of knowing that.

[snow_wizard]

How about other models? Any support outside of the ensemblies?

 

There have been some excellent ensemble members on both the GFS and Canadian ensembles.  Just saying a cold snap is still a possible outcome.

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian Ensemble isn't good.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015011712/gem-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

[TT-SEA]

There it is again.  For some reason,you just don't seem to understand how to communicate in ways that don't challenge intelligence of others since you don't seem to understand the difference between friendly banter and challenges to your way of thinking.  To suggest a comment is dense continues to demonstrate that you don't know how to play well with others.  You can twist the words of other posters if you wish, but not mine.  As I previously noted, no good deed goes unpunished.

 

Let's do each other a favor.  You stay off my posts and I'll stay off yours.  That should not be hard for either of us to do.  No need to reply to this unless you have the overwhelming need to get in the last word. 

 

 

Not twisting words.   You directly said that in response to me saying that I like the seasons here.   Your comments were out of context with the discussion.   You should have been telling Fred to move if he does not like our seasons!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You really have no way of knowing that.

 

I don't, but that has been what we've had so far by and large.

 

Wish my rain gauge hadn't broken, it is pouring out there today.

[richard mann]

The 12z ECMWF says the possible cold snap is on again.  There have been a minority of very cold GFS ensemble members as well.  The ensemble mean shows a massive area of above normal heights over Alaska and the Aleutians late in week two.  That would normally be favorable for us, but this season has been unreliable in that regard.

With looking at the fuller more hemispheric perspective, 3-hourly, I'd been noticing a somewhat better leaning toward cold settling over Alaska a bit better than it a has been.

 

— Not very well at all over the past month or so. Things cold over Northern Asian, basically skipping over the polar region moving to Central and Eastern Canada.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-wv-48  (6 days.)

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-ir-48

[ShawniganLake]

With looking at the fuller more hemispheric perspective, 3-hourly, I'd been noticing a somewhat better leaning toward cold settling over Alaska a bit better than it a has been.

 

— Not very well at all over the past month or so. Things cold over Northern Asian, basically skipping over the polar region moving to Central and Eastern Canada.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-wv-48  (6 days.)

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-ir-48

What does this mean for the PNW, in your view?

[richard mann]

More primarily, change. 

 

More basically, with cold north setting up at all nearer to us, more chance for its making it here from other than east of the Canadian Rockies—the if more typically cherished and hoped for "retrograde". 

 

— Main and more primary cold's dropping more southward, either more directly or from the NW more.

 

The main cold that we're getting right now and have been, has been from all the way across the Pacific—and not, from more Northeastern Asia.  And so with its lose in general density ....

[ShawniganLake]

It has been good 3 of the past 4 runs.  It could be onto something.

It is slightly more encouraging that it has been showing up on the euro with some consistency, maybe the other models will come around. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is slightly more encouraging that it has been showing up on the euro with some consistency, maybe the other models will come around. 

I agree, There has not been any consistency that stands out to me yet but the models have been showing some promise. Not necessarily that we will get something major but enough to give us legit cooler weather with the potential for snow. I honestly encouraged by some of the longer range 'glimmers of hope' but only about 35.34557432% confident that it means snow for us.  -- As Jim and some others have shared there is some positive signs (ensembles and runs) but at this point it does not mean it is even close to verifying.  Like Tim said, "we have something to watch..." Which is good news.

[TT-SEA]

You're not doing yourself any favors, drop it.

Yeah... I am the one at fault.

[luvssnow_spokane]

In other news... Wind Advisory has been issued for tonight

 

IN ADDITION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND. GFS RUNS OVERNIGHT SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW NEAR 45N AND 132W...DEEPENING AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND BY ABOUT 12Z SUN. NAM
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
AND A MORE EASTERLY TRACKS. ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG 60 TO 75 KT 925
MB WINDS OVER THE OREGON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST. THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL HELP WINDS
ALONG THE COAST TO RISE LATE THIS EVENING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS REACHING
50-55 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z SUN
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COASTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND A WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE PERIOD FROM 06Z TO 20Z SUN IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

 

I get long range tunnel vision and I often miss this stuff.. lol! Nothing epic here but more than I anticipated.

[ShawniganLake]

Quite a potent system looking to develop offshore today.  In my area, seems like we might expect winds gusting in to 45mph range early tomorrow morning.  If the center comes ashore about 100 miles farther south than modelled, it could be stronger.  Looks similar to the storm in early November that knocked out power for 2 days here.

The NAM is the furthest south with the low, bringing it into central Vancouver Island.  That would likely mean power outages for southern Vancouver Island.  The WRF is closer to North/central Vancouver island, which would bring the strongest winds north of here.