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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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Well it's a new year so I might as well start the new thread.

 

Will it snow, rain, cold, inversion, cloud, clear, fog, wind in the new year? Probably.

 

Will the weather fanatics of The Weather Forums be satisfied? Never!

 

Good luck to all in the new year, may it be successful and prosperous (and snowy), and let's try to keep a civil and open forum.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

(Repost)

 

I'm sure I'll jinx it merely by mentioning it, but there's a small chance for some light flurries tomorrow night with that little clipper coming in from the NW. Borderline setup and 925mb temps are probably too warm, but the timing of it and lack of onshore flow may help. Not much but at least it's something to watch.

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2014 Weather Summary for lowly Bay View, WA (Station records starting January 2008):

 

Temperature:

Avg: 52.3

Avg Max: 60.2

Avg Min: 44.5

Max: 84.6

Min: 19.1

Max-Min: 61.9

Min-Max: 33.2

Subfreezing lows: 36

Subfreezing Highs: 0

Lows below 20: 4

Highs above 80: 14

 

Precipitation:

Total: 43.97" (wettest year by almost 3")

Wettest Day: 1.39"

Days over 1": 5

Days of Precipitation: 150

Total Snow: 3.2"

Snow Days: 4

 

Other:

Highest Wind Gust: 35mph

Avg Wind Speed: 0.9mph

Days of Thunder: 3

 

Other than the lack of snow and lack of thunderstorms up here, it was a pretty outstanding year.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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(Repost)

 

I'm sure I'll jinx it merely by mentioning it, but there's a small chance for some light flurries tomorrow night with that little clipper coming in from the NW. Borderline setup and 925mb temps are probably too warm, but the timing of it and lack of onshore flow may help. Not much but at least it's something to watch.

 

Euro doesn't show precip coming in until about 10 am on Friday, but after that it does show possible potential. Looks like 850mb temps are around -2 to -4 and surface temps will be in the mid 30's so it's something to follow in the new year.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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-
 .. Aaahh., "retrograde secondary high pressure area". ?
 
http://www.proxigee.com/1501010945z_nasa_globlir-t-g88.gif
(Click for larger image.)  
 
As in, what the heck do you call, this. ?  .. And when you figure it out, please let me know.

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0900.jpg
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir+30

---
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Looking back at all the models from Christmas day for this weekend in sadness, oh that 00z GFS Parallel for this weekend was so good on Christmas :(

Lynnwood Snowfall (2021-2022)

12/14/21: Snowflakes in the air for 5 mins

12/26/21: 6"

12/27/21-12/28/21: 2"

12/29-12/30: 3.5”

1/2: 2”

1/5: 0.5”

Total: 14”

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It appears the snow is getting closer for Sunday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015010112/images_d3/ww_snow24.84.0000.gif

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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12Z GFS and GEM show nothing of interest.


 


I think Jim is misreading the signals or not seeing the forest for the trees right now.


 


Might be another situation where the tropics line up for us and then deliver nothing... its happened numerous times in recent years.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If it keeps creeping toward us at that rate, it should be to us by June.

 

I was thinking the best we could hope for would be by the next ice age. :D

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

It appears the snow is getting closer for Sunday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015010112/images_d3/ww_snow24.84.0000.gif

That is encouraging to see! Go Euro!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Ice age in the PNW would be mountain snows and 40 F temps in the lowlands.

Ironically, the entirety of the PNW was probably one of the snowiest locations around during the last ice age..even down to sea level, as the Pacific jet ran into frigid air blowing off the ice pack (large ice sheets create semi-permanent high pressure systems). The rest of the U.S. was likely moisture-starved and ridiculously cold.

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  • Longtimer

Ironically, the entirety of the PNW was probably one of the snowiest locations around during the last ice age..even down to sea level, as the Pacific jet ran into frigid air blowing off the ice pack (large ice sheets create semi-permanent high pressure systems). The rest of the U.S. was likely moisture-starved and ridiculously cold.

Where is our snow Phil? have any encouraging thoughts on this New Years morning for the first part of Jan?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like the ensembles are catching on to the transition into a +PNA for the 2nd half of January. It's a shame we wasted so much potential with the current window..could have been great had the NAO cooperated.

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Where is our snow Phil, have any encouraging thoughts on this New Years morning?

Looks like another 5-6 weeks until the next round of WPAC forcing :(

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Ironically, the entirety of the PNW was probably one of the snowiest locations around during the last ice age..even down to sea level, as the Pacific jet ran into frigid air blowing off the ice pack (large ice sheets create semi-permanent high pressure systems). The rest of the U.S. was likely moisture-starved and ridiculously cold.

I have often wondered just how insane it must have been here during that period. My house is built on top of old glacial deposits.

 

This is one reason I just laugh at the global warming freaks. It went from 2000 foot thick ice in this area to nearly as warm as it is now during a period where man couldn't have had any influence on weather at all. But I digress...

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I have often wondered just how insane it must have been here during that period. My house is built on top of old glacial deposits.

 

This is one reason I just laugh at the global warming freaks. It went from 2000 foot thick ice in this area to nearly as warm as it is now during a period where man couldn't have had any influence on weather at all. But I digress...

I don't think anyone would argue that the climate has not been hugely impacted by nonhuman factors in the past.

 

Pretty irrelevant for whether we are impacting it now though.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Guest Winterdog

Looks like the ensembles are catching on to the transition into a +PNA for the 2nd half of January. It's a shame we wasted so much potential with the current window..could have been great had the NAO cooperated.

zzzzzzz
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I am beginning to think we may have squandered a golden opportunity here. In spite of some very favorable signals over the next couple of weeks it appears small details may mess things up for a good pattern here. That weird low splitting the top off of the current block may be the only thing that kept us from getting pounded. Pretty frustrating.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I have often wondered just how insane it must have been here during that period. My house is built on top of old glacial deposits.

 

This is one reason I just laugh at the global warming freaks. It went from 2000 foot thick ice in this area to nearly as warm as it is now during a period where man couldn't have had any influence on weather at all. But I digress...

The ice was thicker than 2000ft..try over a mile deep.

 

Craziest aspect of the ice age cycle is that there is no change in the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface at the TOA. It's merely a change in distribution, which forces major circulatory realignments. That's all it takes to cool the globe by 5-8 degrees.

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I don't think anyone would argue that the climate has not been hugely impacted by nonhuman factors in the past.

 

Pretty irrelevant for whether we are impacting it now though.

The thing is the media makes such a huge deal about sea level rising one inch while in the past it has fluctuated nearly 100 feet all from natural cycles. They just take people for being a bunch of morons.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF is terrible through its entire run.

 

Time to start thinking spring!   Maybe 4-5 weeks from the first flowering trees and daylight past 6 p.m.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking pretty warm with southerly flow and warm 850mb temps during the middle of next week.  Hope the Midwest and East enjoy their arctic blast.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010112!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am beginning to think we may have squandered a golden opportunity here. In spite of some very favorable signals over the next couple of weeks it appears small details may mess things up for a good pattern here. That weird low splitting the top off of the current block may be the only thing that kept us from getting pounded. Pretty frustrating.

It was the NAO that got you, whether you want to believe it or not. The NAO isn't always relevant in PNW, but in cases like this, it is. There wasn't enough meridional wave-driving available to deliver the cold down there.

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Ice age in the PNW would be mountain snows and 40 F temps in the lowlands.

You do realize we were buried in ice during the last one right? The changes in the climate in the PNW were tremendous during the last ice and apparently even during the little ice age.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It was the NAO that you, whether you want to believe it or not. The NAO isn't always relevant in PNW, but in cases like this, it is. There wasn't enough meridional wave-driving available to deliver the cold down there.

Could well be. Jan 1969 featured a rock bottom NAO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The thing is the media makes such a huge deal about sea level rising one inch while in the past it has fluctuated nearly 100 feet all from natural cycles. They just take people for being a bunch of morons.

Again, more like 500 feet by some estimates. It's all about forcing a shift in macroscale thermodynamic equilibrium..this can be done in many ways.

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Looking pretty warm with southerly flow and warm 850mb temps during the middle of next week.  Hope the Midwest and East enjoy their arctic blast.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010112!!chart.gif

That was suppose to be our blast

 

UKMET looks real ridgy next week too.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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You know the negative NAO would have unquestionably helped us here.  A block over Greenland would have forced the huge PV westward.  It just figures that when we need a -NAO it's a no show.

 


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Coast to coast cold! 1968-69!!

It's kind of coast to coast right now..unfortunately the NAO failed this go around, unlike 1968-69. We'll attempt at it again in late January, but we'll have a +PNA by then.

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The European models sure look good for a huge inversion.  The UKMET in particular.

 

Whatever it sure looks like our big chance was blown for this winter.  I expect we will have one more window at some point, but still.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It's kind of coast to coast right now..unfortunately the NAO failed this go around, unlike 1968-69. We'll attempt at it again in late January, but we'll have a +PNA by then.

Perfect!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's kind of coast to coast right now..unfortunately the NAO failed this go around, unlike 1968-69. We'll attempt at it again in late January, but we'll have a +PNA by then.

 

 

The bottom line is we just can't buy a great January here anymore.  So incredibly frustrating.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The European models sure look good for a huge inversion. The UKMET in particular.

 

Whatever it sure looks like our big chance was blown for this winter. I expect we will have one more window at some point, but still.

One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

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One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

 

No question we're at least getting good windows of opportunity this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

Considering the build up and excitement for this event that ended up basically nothing... I won't be holding my breath in anticipation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It appears that all the models show a slight chance of snow in the northern areas of Washington with the onset of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. 850mb temps are -4 to -6 when the precipitation moves in, but they do quickly warm as the heavier precipitation approaches.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

Someday we'll have a great January again. Hopefully all of us are still alive to see it. BLI said something I agree with last week. Given that we saw two major arctic airmasses last winter the odds of having a major outbreak this year weren't great.

Last winter really was an odd one. I think it will look a lot better in retrospect, especially for Oregon. What kept it from being great was that there was literally nothing surrounding those outbreaks, and north of Kelso there was very little snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looks like another 5-6 weeks until the next round of WPAC forcing :(

You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

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  • Longtimer

In the end what difference does it really make. We have been through so many stinker winters in the PNW, We've had no complete duds in about ten years. It was bound to happen. We lived through 2002-03 and 2004-05 and some of us are old enough to remember 91-92. It happens. If this year ends up a dud we'll survive. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

 

What do you guys think about March? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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