January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Sunday is also looking more snowy on the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if the same areas that saw snow last February get snow again this time with some low level cold leaking out of the Fraser gap.

 

Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas.  The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z.  Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area.  The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping.  4-8" for my area.  Maybe 8-12" farther north.  Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

[westiztehbest]

Got about an inch of fluffy snow this morning which has tapered to flurries.  Currently 19F.  Saturday night/Sunday's storm should drop 3-5" before changing to rain early Monday.

[MossMan]

Light snow and sleet here!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it will get ridiculously warm on a couple of days next week once again. Not good for the ski areas.

[MossMan]

Snow/sleet Starting to turn the ground and pavement white!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drizzle here this morning and 37°.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would love to see a nice cool zonal flow take over. This dry cold wave pattern is getting old. The snow pack is hideous. There is only 6 inches of snow at my cabin at 3600 ft and there is usually 2 ft at least. Even up higher here in the north east mountains at 5000 ft there is only 10 inches.

[HighlandExperience]

Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas.  The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z.  Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area.  The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping.  4-8" for my area.  Maybe 8-12" farther north.  Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

 

 

Looks even better than before. Hopefully the WRF is not over doing it for you guys though... Right now I just want some brief light snow for Puget Sound... 

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like it will get ridiculously warm on a couple of days next week once again. Not good for the ski areas.

 

Ya I am really worried for the snoqualmie pass area especially. Like SnowMizer said, it would be nice if we could just have sustained cool zonal flow. 

[Skagit Weather]

I swear the precipitation knows when it is too warm to snow. 32F it avoids everywhere like a quarantined area, but once the temperature rises a few degrees above freezing it trains over that location. 0.15" in the last couple of hours, all of it at 35F which reminds me of the inches of rain last year at 34F.

[snow_wizard]

Here is the 500mb anomaly map for 2014. It clearly shows why it was so warm.

[snow_wizard]

I swear the precipitation knows when it is too warm to snow. 32F it avoids everywhere like a quarantined area, but once the temperature rises a few degrees above freezing it trains over that location. 0.15" in the last couple of hours, all of it at 35F which reminds me of the inches of rain last year at 34F.

Especially in the month of January. Since 1982 January can kiss my a$$!

[snow_wizard]

Ya I am really worried for the snoqualmie pass area especially. Like SnowMizer said, it would be nice if we could just have sustained cool zonal flow.

I bet the mountains will do fine in March and April. Just a hunch.

[pscz1140]

Had some snow flurries here a few minutes ago.

 

Almost forgot what that stuff looked like.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I bet the mountains will do fine in March and April. Just a hunch.

Yep, I'm sure they'll do quite well then. Also I have a hunch we will have a great set up here for what would be snow if it Occurred in January. I only say this because this has been a pattern for quite some time.

[HighlandExperience]

Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas.  The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z.  Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area.  The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping.  4-8" for my area.  Maybe 8-12" farther north.  Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. 

 

 

It be nice if we could get some stronger outflow... 

[MossMan]

Was snowing pretty good when I left my house about an hour ago, I-5 was actually getting pretty slushy between Arlington and Stanwood. I am up in stanwood now and it's just light drizzle, could still be snow at my house with intense precip looking at the radar.

[MossMan]

Especially in the month of January. Since 1982 January can kiss my a$$!

It's only the 2nd, anything can happen even by mid month.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks even better than before. Hopefully the WRF is not over doing it for you guys though... Right now I just want some brief light snow for Puget Sound... 

 

I have noticed that those models tend to overdo snowfall amounts in marginal events, so I wouldn't be surprised if accumulations end up at about half of what is shown there at lower elevations; the opposite is usually true in Arctic events with those models often tending too much on the dry side. The mountains will do well regardless. The real fun doesn't start until later tomorrow through to Sunday morning but it will be short lived.

[Jesse]

From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.

Phil is having a rough month so far.

[WS Snow]

Light flurries in West Seattle

[Phil]

From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.

If this one fails, the next round of breakers (starting in late January) should do it.

[ShawniganLake]

If this one fails, the next round of breakers should do it in late January.

Would that be a better scenario for us as the mjo comes back around in February? Or no? 

[Phil]

Phil is having a rough month so far.

I'd call it a so-so forecast thus far..cold is currently coast-to-coast.

 

Got this WSI map in a text from one of my old friends..legit:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/scfmQk.jpg

[Phil]

Would that be a better scenario for us as the mjo comes back around in February? Or no?

Yes, definitely.

[Parksvillewx]

RIP Winter 2014-15.

 

As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month.

 

 

Maybe Feb will be our month?

 

 

[Phil]

From what I can tell, the SSW is weakening before it really got started.

Made it to moderate status..didn't reach SSW criteria as far as wind reversal is concerned.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have to say this 36 degree, moderate rain fall is incredible. --

[luvssnow_spokane]

RIP Winter 2014-15.

 

As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month.

 

pnaens.jpg

 

Maybe Feb will be our month?

maybe March or April.... Who knows

[westcoastexpat]

Phil is having a rough month so far.

It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen.

[TT-SEA]

maybe March or April.... Who knows

 

 

Early April is always great for miserable cold rain and snow mixed.

[Bryant]

RIP Winter 2014-15.

 

As Phil predicted...bye bye to negative PNA come mid month.

 

pnaens.jpg

 

Maybe Feb will be our month?

You can see a similar PNA drop when you compare the current state to mid-late November. Very similar evolutions.

 

The roller coaster of cold outbreaks relate to the short MJO cycle this season. MJO has favored the Indian Ocean to the west Pacific, with a weak signal over the central Pacific and western Indian Ocean. This allows for the primary convection to focus on phases 3-6 for the most part. 4-6 are considered La Nina phases, with 3 and 7 being more of "transition" phases. If the regime remains similar, then I'd say ~4-5 weeks will be our next window. Look for another atmospheric river and Aleutian low pattern in the near future as the convection shifts over the Pacific.

[Phil]

It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen.

The large scale evolution worked out as expected..minus the NAO.

[Farmboy]

Could the second half of January be as lousy and snowless as the what first half is shaping up to be?  I think it'll turn around.  Crack-u-weather.com seems to think so too...

[snow_wizard]

You can see a similar PNA drop when you compare the current state to mid-late November. Very similar evolutions.

 

The roller coaster of cold outbreaks relate to the short MJO cycle this season. MJO has favored the Indian Ocean to the west Pacific, with a weak signal over the central Pacific and western Indian Ocean. This allows for the primary convection to focus on phases 3-6 for the most part. 4-6 are considered La Nina phases, with 3 and 7 being more of "transition" phases. If the regime remains similar, then I'd say ~4-5 weeks will be our next window. Look for another atmospheric river and Aleutian low pattern in the near future as the convection shifts over the Pacific.

 

Yup...no reason to think we won't have another chance.  We are going to have another huge torch this week so the extreme roller coaster continues.  We've already had three hard freeze periods this winter in spite of having one of the warmest Decembers on record.  I actually think this month will be a bit cooler overall than December though.

[snow_wizard]

It's true, but a tough forecast to get. But I praise the courage to make a call. Bust forecasts happen.

 

He really wasn't off by that much.  Obviously the general pattern he forecast came to fruition, but it just didn't lock in.

[snow_wizard]

I have to say this 36 degree, moderate rain fall is incredible. --

 

It does feel and look like winter out there today.  It's frozen pretty hard for sure.

[snow_wizard]

It's only the 2nd, anything can happen even by mid month.

 

This month is almost certainly done except maybe the very end.

[Deweydog]

The large scale evolution worked out as expected..minus the NAO.

Personally I think you have nothing to be ashamed of. Any nitpicking at this point is just weenie frustration kicking in. It's clear things seemed to derail at the last minute. happens.

 

That said, the 2008 tabloid stuff was dumb and undercut (weather reference!) the rational nature of your progs to that point.

[TT-SEA]

Toasty out here next Wednesday... while some nice -27C temps dip into the Great Lakes.

 

Am I going to have to read more from my relatives complaining about the bitter cold??   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht.gif