January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

This month is almost certainly done except maybe the very end.

You don't think that's a bit premature?  Even the GFS can't see beyond hour 240....

[Farmboy]

• Phil, with all his expertise, swung and missed on this one.  What makes you guys so rock-solid sure that "January is done"....Would you put money on that?

[Deweydog]

 

• Phil, with all his expertise, swung and missed on this one. What makes you guys so rock-solid sure that "January is done"....Would you put money on that?

It's gonna be a quiet month.

[BLI snowman]

We might as well just embrace these next 60 hours  since they are likely going to be the highlight of the month.

 

I think some places switch over to light snow in the next few hours. Accumulations tonight are extremely unlikely though.

 

Sunday looks like a reasonable 2-4" setup for the Fraser River outflow spots. Probably just wet slop in Bellingham. Very small chance that non cold air damming favored locales could see some wet snow on Sunday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two on the Hood Canal and Kitsap Peninsula. Shades of 1/4/09.

[richard mann]

... What makes you guys so rock-solid sure that "January is done"....Would you put money on that?

.. I'd say, a bit better question might be .. done in what respects more specific. ?

  

— Not being from or in the PNW more main, just once and all in one place, I'd like to see someone characterize the perfect pre-Christmas through January timeframe. "Ideal", perhaps better. Maybe Tim with his more old-style slant on the idea, had it. What was it. ? .. "Cold and Crisp" snow, or "Sunny and Crisp". Wasn't this about right.  ?

 

— Add, plenty of snow in both Seattle and Portland, proper. This idea lending to that of more snow in the mountains. Closer. ?

[Bryant]

 

• Phil, with all his expertise, swung and missed on this one. What makes you guys so rock-solid sure that "January is done"....Would you put money on that?

I wouldn't say he swung and missed at all. The pattern was very close to delivering a potential remarkable event, but it didn't pan out. Doesn't mean the overall pattern over the CONUS wasn't a good call.

[bainbridgekid]

We might as well just embrace these next 60 hours since they are likely going to be the highlight of the month.

 

I think some places switch over to light snow in the next few hours. Accumulations tonight are extremely unlikely though.

 

Sunday looks like a reasonable 2-4" setup for the Fraser River outflow spots. Probably just wet slop in Bellingham. Very small chance that non cold air damming favored locales could see some wet snow on Sunday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two on the Hood Canal and Kitsap Peninsula. Shades of 1/4/09.

IDK. 1/4/09 was a pretty solid event.

 

Seattle got several inches and I got 6" on Bainbridge with that.

 

Bellingham also had SE wind and was stuck in the mid 30's without any accumulations.

[snow_wizard]

.. I'd said, a bit better question might be .. done in what respects more specific. ?

  

— Not being from or in the PNW more main, just once and all in one place, I'd like to see someone characterize the perfect pre-Christmas through January timeframe. "Ideal", perhaps better. Maybe Tim with his more old-style slant on the idea, had it. What was it "Cold and Crisp" snow, or "Sunny and Crisp". Wasn't this about right.  ?

 

— Add plenty of snow in both Seattle and Portland, proper. This idea lending to that of more snow in the mountains. Closer.

 

The perfect late Dec / early Jan would be this.

 

12-23 - widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow with sharply falling temps.

12-24 - clear and very cold

12-25 - two inches of snow in the morning followed by clearing and temps dropping into the teens.

12-25 through 1-10 - most days clear with highs in the 20s and lows 5 to 15, with a couple of days with more snow

 

That would be my definition at least.

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't say he swung and missed at all. The pattern was very close to delivering a potential remarkable event, but it didn't pan out. Doesn't mean the overall pattern over the CONUS wasn't a good call.

 

It is surprising people don't seem to realize how close it came to being great.  We did get a semi Arctic outbreak.

[BLI snowman]

IDK. 1/4/09 was a pretty solid event.

 

Seattle got several inches and I got 6" on Bainbridge with that.

 

Bellingham also had SE wind and was stuck in the mid 30's without any accumulations.

 

It's similar, date included, but the preceding airmass isn't as cold with this so I doubt we see the widespread 1-3" totals from that event.

 

But the same areas favored with that event will likely see some with this. Shelton and Bremerton have a reasonable shot at accumulating snow. The timing of the precip also looks favorable, with it moving in around midnight and remaining steady through sunrise. 

[snow_wizard]

IDK. 1/4/09 was a pretty solid event.

 

Seattle got several inches and I got 6" on Bainbridge with that.

 

Bellingham also had SE wind and was stuck in the mid 30's without any accumulations.

 

I would gladly take an event like that.

[Bryant]

It is surprising people don't seem to realize how close it came to being great. We did get a semi Arctic outbreak.

Agreed. For many, what happens in their backyards is all they care about. The potential was even greater than the mid-late November event, which makes me excited for the potential in ~4-5 weeks

[snow_wizard]

The temperature roller coaster since early November has been quite extraordinary to say the least.  Here are some extreme departure from normal values from MBY.

 

11/5 .... +10

11/14 ... -10

11/26 ... +17

11/30 ... -14

12/10 ... +19 (utterly ridiculous I know)

12/31 ... -9 (more than one -9 during cold snap)

 

Right now it appears a +12 or thereabouts is not at all unlikely next week.  Doesn't seem far fetched we will get into or at least close to double digit minus territory again.

[bainbridgekid]

I would gladly take an event like that.

1/4/09 brought some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen on Bainbridge. 4 hours of orange and red echoes with temps right around 31-32. The snow piled up even faster than 12/20/08 when i got a foot but just for a much shorter period of time.

 

At this point I'd sacrafice a goat for a few inches of slop in a transition event. Been a while.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. For many, what happens in their backyards is all they care about. The potential was even greater than the mid-late November event, which makes me excited for the potential in ~4-5 weeks

 

I'm  a bit puzzled by the ECMWF MJO forecast though.  It shows the wave getting hung up in 5 for at least two weeks while the latest available GFS forecast shows it progressing exactly like the last wave.  The ECMWF has been far better with MJO this season so I'm not sure what to make of it.  If it does hang up in 5 you would think the long range ECMWF progs would be better for our area.  If the GFS is correct we could certainly be looking at another favorable wave by very late this month.

[MossMan]

Well it snowed for several hours today and I did have a trace stick to the ground and even the road. Was nice to seeing falling anyway! Currently drizzle and 35 degrees. A raw day for sure!

[MossMan]

1/4/09 brought some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen on Bainbridge. 4 hours of orange and red echoes with temps right around 31-32. The snow piled up even faster than 12/20/08 when i got a foot but just for a much shorter period of time.

 

At this point I'd sacrafice a goat for a few inches of slop in a transition event. Been a while.

That was a very good day up here as well, think I got about 6" or so from that system.

[snow_wizard]

That was a very good day up here as well, think I got about 6" or so from that system.

 

I think pretty much everyone got a decent amount.  I had about 3 inches.  I distinctly remember that was just an unusually cold maritime polar air mass.  I do like the weak easterly gradients being shown Sunday morning.  Cold air will seep in out of central WA without down sloping / compression that would happen with stronger offshore flow.

[snow_wizard]

1/4/09 brought some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen on Bainbridge. 4 hours of orange and red echoes with temps right around 31-32. The snow piled up even faster than 12/20/08 when i got a foot but just for a much shorter period of time.

 

At this point I'd sacrafice a goat for a few inches of slop in a transition event. Been a while.

 

I might make it two goats for a real snowstorm with Arctic air!

[Deweydog]

The perfect late Dec / early Jan would be this.

 

12-23 - widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow with sharply falling temps.

12-24 - clear and very cold

12-25 - two inches of snow in the morning followed by clearing and temps dropping into the teens.

12-25 through 1-10 - most days clear with highs in the 20s and lows 5 to 15, with a couple of days with more snow

 

That would be my definition at least.

Not unreasonable at all.

[richard mann]

The perfect late Dec / early Jan would be this.

 

12-23 - widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow with sharply falling temps.

12-24 - clear and very cold

12-25 - two inches of snow in the morning followed by clearing and temps dropping into the teens.

12-25 through 1-10 - most days clear with highs in the 20s and lows 5 to 15, with a couple of days with more snow

 

That would be my definition at least.

 

"Marked", and "filed". ... for future reference.

 

(Good luck, where considering the 2nd, through 10th more, still this year.)

[snow_wizard]

Not unreasonable at all.

 

We're capable of it.

[Deweydog]

We're capable of it.

Well then you better plan and prepare!

 

#ourwinterssuck

 

-you

[snow_wizard]

Well then you better plan and prepare!

 

#ourwinterssuck

 

-you

 

Obviously I know the chances of seeing that in any given winter are quite low.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is being a real stick in the mud about snow chances tomorrow night.  Even saying it's iffy for Whatcom County.  I'm far from convinced they are right.

[Bryant]

Well then you better plan and prepare!

 

#ourwinterssuck

 

-you

Dewey, just want to say that I crack up at the majority of your posts.

[Bryant]

I think pretty much everyone got a decent amount. I had about 3 inches. I distinctly remember that was just an unusually cold maritime polar air mass. I do like the weak easterly gradients being shown Sunday morning. Cold air will seep in out of central WA without down sloping / compression that would happen with stronger offshore flow.

It's been said before, but the RMM plots you look at become contaminated very easily. Any oceanic wave or uptick in OLR will confuse the index, resulting in more/less amplified waves. This has been happening all winter with the CCKW's. However, I will say the ECMWF has been doing great like you mentioned.

[Phil]

OT, but that eastern blast on the ECMWF is getting more impressive. Hi-res maps have a high of 3F here w/ 50-60mph gusts. Only 20 degrees warmer than the Jan 2014 blast.

[westcoastexpat]

I would expect posters North of Arlington to see some white stuff on Sunday. Not so positive about Seattle area. Likely a swing and a miss there

[snow_wizard]

It is interesting to note the GFS ensemble puts the offshore trough further west during week two than what we have seen so far this season.  This does set up the possibility of a ridge popping up right over us and some foggy inversions and may bode well for the next time an offshore block sets up assuming a further west mean trough will lead to a further west mean ridge afterward.  I still think it will take a good while for that to happen though.

 

l would certainly rather see a ridge right over us than the mess that dominated most of December.  Both are horrible for the mountains but at least the ridge would give us a shot at some cold temps.

[Deweydog]

The NWS is being a real stick in the mud about snow chances tomorrow night. Even saying it's iffy for Whatcom County. I'm far from convinced they are right.

Weren't they your greatest ally on the night of the 23rd?

[Prairiedog]

The perfect late Dec / early Jan would be this.

 

12-23 - widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow with sharply falling temps.

12-24 - clear and very cold

12-25 - two inches of snow in the morning followed by clearing and temps dropping into the teens.

12-25 through 1-10 - most days clear with highs in the 20s and lows 5 to 15, with a couple of days with more snow

 

That would be my definition at least.

You've just described Winthrop. 14f,about a foot on the ground. another 8-12 predicted Sun/Mon.

Magnificent here.

[TT-SEA]

Sleeting, saw a flake of snow, 37°, all happening in Mill Creek, Washington.

 

 

Nice... might turn back to snow later here then.

[richard mann]

Personally I think you have nothing to be ashamed of. Any nitpicking at this point is just weenie frustration kicking in. It's clear things seemed to derail at the last minute. s**t happens.

 

That said, the 2008 tabloid stuff was dumb and undercut (weather reference!) the rational nature of your progs to that point.

 

This .. where we weigh in opinion / merit wise. ?  

 

— It would appear. 

 

.. I'll go along with the valiant effort idea. Even if not called such more specifically, previously. This with my leaving alone my appreciation more specific, of the different and certainly various cases, more actual, having been looked at and considered. 

 

.. One comment, even request, that I would have more general where considering a / the, more extended "speculation", more general forecast type, more wide-reaching wise, and where either whether more or less, connected to the more extended "forecast" more central being referred to here more basically, … where perhaps fore-seeing a not quite, so "interesting" potential, i.e. relative to what people might want to see, more ideally with its perhaps actually coming about, .. the idea of a …. more specifically, well thought out, and perhaps more carefully considered, "emphasis". 

[richard mann]

Obviously I know the chances of seeing that in any given winter are quite low.

 

So maybe more "ideal" then. 

 

With this, how about where and with considering the same main timeframe, an impression / your's of the same, a tad more toned down, to only more "perfect". (?) Additional. ?

[Parksvillewx]

Skies cleared and the temp is diving now. 32F currently.

 

Environment Canada just updated the winter storm watch. "Significant Accumulations possible".  So we'll see how this pans out.

[MossMan]

Temp back down to 34 and heavy drizzle.

[Deweydog]

This .. where we weigh in opinion / merit wise. ?

 

— It would appear.

 

.. I'll go along with the valiant effort idea. Even if not called such more specifically, previously. This with my leaving alone my appreciation more specific, of the different and certainly various cases, more actual, having been looked at and considered.

 

.. One comment, even request, that I would have more general where considering a / the, more extended "speculation", more general forecast type, more wide-reaching wise, and where either whether more or less, connected to the more extended "forecast" more central being referred to here more basically, … where perhaps fore-seeing a not quite, so "interesting" potential, i.e. relative to what people might want to see, more ideally with its perhaps actually coming about, .. the idea of a …. more specifically, well thought out, and perhaps more carefully considered, "emphasis".

You want him sooooo bad.

[Bryant]

You want him sooooo bad.

This is a perfect example

[Front Ranger]

He really wasn't off by that much.  Obviously the general pattern he forecast came to fruition, but it just didn't lock in.

 

Phil just needs to learn not to throw out things like "better than 2008", "1968-69", and "coast to coast ice box" so much. That's the deal with LR forecasting - it's possible to have a general idea of likely pattern evolutions, but even within those patterns there are so many variables that can have large effects with far different results, especially in a small geographic area like the western lowlands of the PNW.

 

Problem is, people want forecasts for their specific area, they want specific time frames, and they want to hear things like "this could be historic".