January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The large scale evolution worked out as expected..minus the NAO.

 

And minus the -AO and SSW. 

 

The -EPO did re-develop in late December as you predicted in early December, so I'll give you credit for that.

[Front Ranger]

I wouldn't say he swung and missed at all. The pattern was very close to delivering a potential remarkable event, but it didn't pan out. Doesn't mean the overall pattern over the CONUS wasn't a good call.

 

That might be stretching things a bit. I think the hype machine leading up to it raised expectations of potential, but that doesn't make actual potential greater. None of the models ever showed anything remarkable within a believable time frame, at least as far as cold or snow for the western lowlands goes. The overall theme the whole time was to keep the blocking a little too far east, with an occasional run teasing with something a little better.

 

There have been many patterns in recent years with just as much if not more remarkable potential. And obviously some of those delivered a lot more.

[Front Ranger]

It's gonna be a quiet month.

 

He said on the second day of the month.

 

C'mon dewey, you're better than this. 

[Front Ranger]

It's similar, date included, but the preceding airmass isn't as cold with this so I doubt we see the widespread 1-3" totals from that event.

 

But the same areas favored with that event will likely see some with this. Shelton and Bremerton have a reasonable shot at accumulating snow. The timing of the precip also looks favorable, with it moving in around midnight and remaining steady through sunrise. 

 

As I mentioned a few days ago, you guys are due for a wet snowfall event.

[bainbridgekid]

As I mentioned a few days ago, you guys are due for a wet snowfall event.

Bellingham had a huge one on 2/23/14, but the Seattle area hasn't had a decent wet snowfall since, what 1/11/11?

[BLI snowman]

Bellingham had a huge one on 2/23/14, but the Seattle area hasn't had a decent wet snowfall since, what 1/11/11?

 

I would say 1/15/2012. 

[Bryant]

He said on the second day of the month.

 

C'mon dewey, you're better than this.

Nothing wrong with making a prediction like this if feel confident. I'm calling this month an overall dud for cold as well. We'll have sun, rain, and wind... But cold/snow? Not likely. I hope I'm wrong

[bainbridgekid]

I would say 1/15/2012. 

True. A CZ hit Seattle pretty good with that one.

 

It snowed 2 inches right along the waterfront Downtown in about an hour and 4" in the hills of West Seattle.

 

Only 0.5" on Bainbridge though.

[Front Ranger]

I would say 1/15/2012. 

 

Agreed, although that was obviously much different as there was an actual modified Arctic air mass around. 34/26 at SEA that day.

 

This is a much more borderline deal, and it would take something like Portland saw with 12/29/09 for any lowland accumulations south of the border.

[Front Ranger]

Nothing wrong with making a prediction like this if feel confident. I'm calling this month an overall dud for cold as well. We'll have sun, rain, and wind... But cold/snow? Not likely. I hope I'm wrong

 

Except that Dewey has called out others many times for basically doing the same thing. Writing off a whole month right at the beginning. It may or may not turn out to be right, but it's kind of silly.

[Bryant]

Except that Dewey has called out others many times for basically doing the same thing. Writing off a whole month right at the beginning. It may or may not turn out to be right, but it's kind of silly.

 

I'm not sure what it is with members on this board feeling they need to "call out" others. What's the point in going out of your way to do so? 

[bainbridgekid]

Agreed, although that was obviously much different as there was an actual modified Arctic air mass around. 34/26 at SEA that day.

 

This is a much more borderline deal, and it would take something like Portland saw with 12/29/09 for any lowland accumulations south of the border.

That was obviously a much colder airmass than this one, but it was definitely a cold onshore setup. No outflow even at BLI.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter cancel....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150102.201502.gif

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure what it is with members on this board feeling they need to "call out" others. What's the point in going out of your way to do so? 

 

Are you calling me out?

[Bryant]

Are you calling me out?

 

Just making a general statement. 

[BLI snowman]

Agreed, although that was obviously much different as there was an actual modified Arctic air mass around. 34/26 at SEA that day.

 

This is a much more borderline deal, and it would take something like Portland saw with 12/29/09 for any lowland accumulations south of the border.

 

March 2012 also had a bunch of borderline setups that worked out. 2011-12 was a nice winter in that regard, lots of snow with onshore flow setups.

[richard mann]

.... Writing off a whole month right at the beginning. It may or may not turn out to be right, but it's kind of silly.

 

I'd go a bit further than just silly. 

[Front Ranger]

That was obviously a much colder airmass than this one, but it was definitely a cold onshore setup. No outflow even at BLI.

 

Yeah. And this one is relying heavily on outflow. It will take a generous gift from the weather gods for anyone south of Bellingham (besides maybe the Hood Canal) to see more than .2" of accumulation.

[Front Ranger]

Just making a general statement. 

 

It was a joke

[westiztehbest]

Time to bust out the snowshoes Sunday.

 

[richard mann]

I'm not sure what it is with members on this board feeling they need to "call out" others. What's the point in going out of your way to do so? 

 

Apparently not. Perhaps you should think more in terms of whatever ideas represented and posted, being better defined, even elucidated expanded upon more fully. Then perhaps you wouldn't see things as you've suggested, more. As in, perhaps you're assigning attitudes and feelings to some things you find posted to some extent.

[Front Ranger]

March 2012 also had a bunch of borderline setups that worked out. 2011-12 was a nice winter in that regard, lots of snow with onshore flow setups.

 

It was what 2007-08 almost was. 

[Front Ranger]

I'd go a bit further than just silly. 

 

You the mann.

 

I have to say, a lot of your posts lately are considerably easier to understand. Thanks for helping us dummies out!

[bainbridgekid]

March 2012 also had a bunch of borderline setups that worked out. 2011-12 was a nice winter in that regard, lots of snow with onshore flow setups.

That was a good example of a very back-loaded Winter.

 

Really nothing significant at all before Mid-January.

[MikeInEverett]

What sucks for the Seattle area is that we here are the only ones between Portland, Seattle, and Bellingham that hasn't seen any significant snow in the last three years. Portland and especially Bellingham got hit pretty hard last Feb, but Seattle was just left with an over running event on Feb. 8th. Ugh

[richard mann]

.. the mann. ... have to say .... easier to understand [than. ....]

 

Fred's main charge of the board, along with my time "away" previous to his having taken over to head it, perhaps. Appreciate the basic compliment. 

[stuffradio]

Winter cancel....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150102.201502.gif

Finally. At least I can plant my peas then!

[stuffradio]

March 2012 also had a bunch of borderline setups that worked out. 2011-12 was a nice winter in that regard, lots of snow with onshore flow setups.

I don't remember which years specifically it happened, but two or three years in a row a few years back, I had about an inch or so of snow fall on Good Friday morning.

[antipex]

Finally. At least I can plant my peas then!

 

And lots of bike rides!

[Deweydog]

He said on the second day of the month.

 

C'mon dewey, you're better than this.

Ah jeezers... Thanks for setting me straight, guy!

[Deweydog]

Phil just needs to learn not to throw out things like "better than 2008", "1968-69", and "coast to coast ice box" so much. That's the deal with LR forecasting - it's possible to have a general idea of likely pattern evolutions, but even within those patterns there are so many variables that can have large effects with far different results, especially in a small geographic area like the western lowlands of the PNW.

 

Problem is, people want forecasts for their specific area, they want specific time frames, and they want to hear things like "this could be historic".

I think most of this is common sense, but Philly Cheesesteak tends to forget who his audience is and also knows too well that he can pander to it for some much needed attention.

 

All that aside, his prog was well-articulated, fairly consistent and accurate.

[snow_wizard]

Winter cancel....

 

 

This winter that could end up right and we could still have an Arctic blast...see December.

[Deweydog]

Except that Dewey has called out others many times for basically doing the same thing. Writing off a whole month right at the beginning. It may or may not turn out to be right, but it's kind of silly.

You're barking up the wrong tree. I have felt for a while this was going to be a quiet winter on the whole. With three cold snaps under our belt already it certainly doesn't put odds in our favor given the rhythm of things lately.

 

For the 12th time since your rebirth, down boy.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I would love to see a nice cool zonal flow take over. This dry cold wave pattern is getting old. The snow pack is hideous. There is only 6 inches of snow at my cabin at 3600 ft and there is usually 2 ft at least. Even up higher here in the north east mountains at 5000 ft there is only 10 inches.

We need a wetter, more active pattern down in CA so that bigger storms can bring significant snows to the Sierra, because the snowpack down here isn't doing so well, either.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Here is the 500mb anomaly map for 2014. It clearly shows why it was so warm.

We need the exact opposite pattern: a ridge at 160W and a West Coast trough.

[Abbotsford_wx]

I think most of this is common sense, but Philly Cheesesteak tends to forget who his audience is and also knows too well that he can pander to it for some much needed attention.

 

All that aside, his prog was well-articulated, fairly consistent and accurate.

 

Except for his call of no arctic air in late December, so I'd say that those of us who predicted arctic air between late December and mid January were more accurate.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF doesn't look promising for snow anywhere tomorrow night except for Whatcom County.  The air mass just isn't going to be cold enough and precip is going to be light until much warmer air invades.

[MossMan]

Sooo...how does the latest NAM/GFS/NOGAPS/GEM Weeklies look for North Sound snow this weekend? Any change from the early afternoon runs?

[snow_wizard]

We need the exact opposite pattern: a ridge at 160W and a West Coast trough.

 

We may break into something like that for March and April.  Until then I think we will see more of what we've seen so far this winter except maybe the mean trough being a bit further west this month after this quick fire hose that's going to hit the NW.  The bottom line on that is it could be pretty dry for a good part of the month over much of the West.

[snow_wizard]

Sooo...how does the latest NAM/GFS/NOGAPS/GEM Weeklies look for North Sound snow this weekend? Any change from the early afternoon runs?

 

I don't think it looks that promising.  I sure wish today's clipper had dug in a bit sharper.