HighlandExperience Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 For those who were jealous of us yesterday, don't be. This was a busted forecast with no snow.Ouch that sucks. Maybe in a few weeks will get a chance.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now. Not per the 12Z Canadian at 240 hours... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The latter half of the extended appears to be trending more zonal right now. Not per the 12Z parallel GFS at 240 hours: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010412/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Not per the 12Z parallel GFS at 240 hours: http://s18.postimg.org/shzl96aop/Untitled.jpg Fixed the map for you. So what does the winter of 2015/16 have to offer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Sounds like it's snowing up in Blaine and Lynden acording to nws. 000FPUS76 KSEW 041720NOWSEW SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015 WAZ503-042015-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...LYNDEN920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015 .NOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHWESTERNWHATCOM COUNTY. IT IS CURRENTLY ACCUMULATING ON THE GROUND INAREAS AROUND LYNDEN AND SUMAS...BUT MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BEFORECHANGING TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIVERS GOING THROUGH AREASWITH SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD USE CAUTION. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ISALSO POSSIBLE. $$ JSMITH Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Sounds like it's snowing up in Blaine and Lynden acording to nws. 000FPUS76 KSEW 041720NOWSEW SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015 WAZ503-042015-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...LYNDEN920 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2015 .NOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHWESTERNWHATCOM COUNTY. IT IS CURRENTLY ACCUMULATING ON THE GROUND INAREAS AROUND LYNDEN AND SUMAS...BUT MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BEFORECHANGING TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIVERS GOING THROUGH AREASWITH SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD USE CAUTION. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ISALSO POSSIBLE. $$ JSMITH http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01510.jpg http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/border/default.aspx?cam=1529 Looks like a winter wonderland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01510.jpg http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/border/default.aspx?cam=1529 Looks like a winter wonderland. That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet. http://s4.postimg.org/rvv13glgt/543vc00098.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet. Ya looks wet in places farther west unfortunately. Mountains are getting dumped on right now though. Hopefully the rain later tonight won't do too much damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ya looks wet in places farther west unfortunately. Mountains are getting dumped on right now though. Hopefully the rain later tonight won't do too much damage. It looks pretty grim for the mountains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 It looks pretty grim for the mountains. The only good thing is that it was really cold the last week or so. The base layer should be fine. Alot of the new snow they get in the next 12 hours will melt though. Will see Monday what the snowpack looks like after the heavy rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's too bad we couldn't have gotten an overriding event with any of the three outbreaks this season, I kind of miss those now. 38 degree rain with a breezy SE wind...sad. oh well, the tail end of January into Feb will be ours!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks nice and toasty with a SW flow at 240 hrs on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks nice and toasty with a SW flow at 240 hrs on the Euro. Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about tropical forcings and ensembles. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of goobbly-**** about tropical forcings and ensembles. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gifNot too concerned about 240hrs out, it will look different tomorrow. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Not too concerned about 240hrs out, it will look different tomorrow. Not really... all the models look almost exactly the same and its been trending that way for some time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was the most I could find... just a couple miles west in Blaine it looks wet. http://s4.postimg.org/rvv13glgt/543vc00098.jpg No, Lynden got a dusting with 2" or so in Sumas. Not sure how Abbotsford fared, seems likely slightly better than Lynden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 No, Lynden got a dusting with 2" or so in Sumas. Not sure how Abbotsford fared, seems likely slightly better than Lynden. I was referring to the snowy image... I know there was snow up there in places. My post was mentioning that just a couple miles west of Lynden... it looked wet in Blaine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Can't make this pig look good... even with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about tropical forcings and ensembles. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015010412!!chart.gifIf you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I almost feel like taking a 45 min drive north to see this in person. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I was referring to the snowy image... I know there was snow up there in places. My post was mentioning that just a couple miles west of Lynden... it looked wet in Blaine. Good example of how delicate these weak outflow events are. Blaine, Vancouver, and Bellingham get 34 degree rain while a few miles away at the same elevation there's snow. Definitely an underperformer for B.C. folks though. I thought more of V.I. and the Vancouver metro would score accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 If you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame. The talk of stuff beyond 10 days seems like mumbo-jumbo until it gets closer... too many things can change. And then the details usually still ruin it for us. We are in the heart of the golden Jan 1-10 period everyone talked about for the last month. That did not work out well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Today's CFS run will be telling... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 If you payed attention, you'd realize that all the "mumbo-jumbo" regarding tropical forcing actually supports the Aleutian low pattern shown above during that time frame. Looks like we will turn wet again. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Brrr... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Brrr... Looks like some nice 33 degree snow. I'd take some right now. The Christmas Eve snow has satisfied me for now. Plus with work and 3 kids I don't really have time for complaining anymore. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Today's CFS run will be telling... Yes... I will be focusing on the late March period which should be locked in on even the fine details by now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I almost feel like taking a 45 min drive north to see this in person.Looks beautiful. Isn't Sumas like a 90 minute drive from Arlington though? Might as well drive up to Stevens Pass. http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/us2/stvldg/sumtwest.jpg Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like some nice 33 degree snow. I'd take some right now. The Christmas Eve snow has satisfied me for now. Plus with work and 3 kids I don't really have time for complaining anymore. Honestly, I think the quiet winter for you is a blessing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Honestly, I think the quiet winter for you is a blessing. Probably true, an active snowy winter in about two years would be great when all the kids can enjoy it. My oldest daughter had just turned 1 before the February snowstorm, she loved it, but she was still to young to really spend more than 10-15 minutes outside getting pulled around on a sled. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The talk of stuff beyond 10 days seems like mumbo-jumbo until it gets closer... too many things can change. And then the details usually still ruin it for us. We are in the heart of the golden Jan 1-10 period everyone talked about for the last month. That did not work out well.That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Today's CFS run will be telling... Not that it means anything, but it's not as good. Still turns cold by late Jan, though!!! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone. Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yes... I will be focusing on the late March period which should be locked in on even the fine details by now. Halo time? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone. That is all fine... and I am not mocking but rather pointing out the reality that the details can completely change the result to something so different even if the overall configuration works out. And most people care more about the tangible weather at their location. This week for example will be very wet initially and then very mild. A bust on Jan 1-10 period we all watched so closely even though the major players are in place. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Pretty remarkable what a solidly torchy period this is turning into. Aside from a ten day period in mid-Novemer and about a week around the beginning of the last two months, it has been a non-stop torch for the PNW for nearly 11 months now. Good time to focus on other things besides weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Front Ranger, on 04 Jan 2015 - 12:48 PM, said:Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies.I know I'm a near sighted tottering old weenie but my motto is, if it doesn't show it in the GFS operational within three days it probably won't happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Pretty remarkable what a solidly torchy period this is turning into. Aside from a ten day period in mid-Novemer and about a week around the beginning of the last two months, it has been a non-stop torch for the PNW for nearly 11 months now. Good time to focus on other things besides weather. I'm starting to feel like the torching will probably end in about April. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I know I'm a near sighted tottering old weenie but my motto is, if it doesn't show it in the GFS operational within three days it probably won't happen. That really is a bit silly. The models have improved tremendously in the 4-7 day period over the last few years. They obviously still struggle with the details, but if the models agree on a region-wide arctic blast inside 7 days, it's probably going to happen. Snow is much more fickle and based on the details so I can understand your skepticism there. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies. Not sure what you're getting at here? That's a pretty obvious statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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