January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950.  It can happen in January!

[wx_statman]

Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950.  It can happen in January!

 

Its even harder to believe that this was the lamest of the three cold waves that month.

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe SEA had a record low of 6 on this date in 1950.  It can happen in January!

 

Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004.  It can happen in January pretty recently!  

[BLI snowman]

Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004.  It can happen in January pretty recently!  

 

Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass.

[Deweydog]

Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass.

 

[BLI snowman]

 

If you're gonna roll with the big boys on these historic statistics, be sure to get your info right 

[IbrChris]

As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be studying a few things, but my big project will be with ensemble systems for MCS formation. Seems like a lot of fun! Anyway just wanted to share that in case anybody was curious.

Still at Utah?

[Deweydog]

If you're gonna roll with the big boys on these historic statistics, be sure to get your info right 

 

It's still an all-time record, sure as s**t.  Just as sure as the 2-4 inches of snow at your house on 12-1-07 and PDX's 33 degree high on Tuesday.  

[BLI snowman]

It's still an all-time record, sure as s**t.  Just as sure as the 2-4 inches of snow at your house on 12-1-07 and PDX's 33 degree high on Tuesday.  

 

I started weather records last month, so my low of 22 this week was an all time record for Bellingham. 

[Deweydog]

I started weather records last month, so my low of 22 this week was an all time record for Bellingham. 

 

It's a good place to start...  

 

I wouldn't bet the mortgage against it holding up a while.  

[Jesse]

In regards to the SSW, I suspect it's a "delayed not denied" scenario. We were close to achieving a SSW this time, but just missed the threshold of no return.

Cue the jaws music.

[westcoastexpat]

He really wasn't off by that much. Obviously the general pattern he forecast came to fruition, but it just didn't lock in.

It's not really that unusual to have Arctic air across most of the continent East of the Rockies in early January. Happens most years.

[westcoastexpat]

I keep seeing people state how courageous it was to do a long range forecast. This s**t is not life and death.

 

I have no interest in doing one myself so I guess that means I am not courageous , I am entirely too busy to even take the time to put one together, I am not lucky enough to be fully retired and loaded in my mid 30's like some.

 

I am a weather weenie through and through, I understand the things that make our weather what it is, and am disapointed when things in my backyard are not what I want. I will never change on that.

I think the courage comes from making a call on this forum where you get ripped to shreds when snow is naysayed or doesn't pan out.

[westcoastexpat]

Exciting winter weather tonight for my home town! Vancouver/Bellingham could have some surprises although the immediate switchover to soaking rains is a bit disappointing. Could see 10" at higher hills in the region.

[westiztehbest]

Long Term update...

 

CFS shows the NW getting persistent cold around the 23rd of January last through mid February.  

 

 

 

 

Euro weeklies show the EPO & NAO dropping deeply negative by the 23rd of January.  Big potential here.

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

Best of luck with that, I just finished my MASc this past fall after 4 1/2 years of slogging it out while working full time. If I have any word of advice it would be to avoid jumping into full time employment while still working on your thesis, unless of course it's directly related to your thesis. Sounds like any interesting program anyway, something I'd like to get into myself long term, taking modern machine learning concepts and applying them to regional meteorology.

I personally have only taken an intro to A.I. course. Have you taken several A.I. courses, or do you specialize in that at all, or are you just interested in applying it to meteorology?

[Black Hole]

Still at Utah?

Yeah, with Dr. Pu if you had her while you were here.

[Black Hole]

 

Long Term update...

 

CFS shows the NW getting persistent cold around the 23rd of January last through mid February.  

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/2r7pz79.jpg

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/2evtier.jpg

 

 

Euro weeklies show the EPO & NAO dropping deeply negative by the 23rd of January.  Big potential here.

 

http://i58.tinypic.com/21kza68.jpg

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/155jcy1.jpg

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/24yza6t.jpg

 

This would seem to follow the progression of this winter. We had a blast in mid Nov, about 35-40 days late in late Dec, and then if you roll that forward that would be late Jan-early Feb.

[Bryant]

This would seem to follow the progression of this winter. We had a blast in mid Nov, about 35-40 days late in late Dec, and then if you roll that forward that would be late Jan-early Feb.

Although the 23rd seems a bit to early, I definitely agree

[epiceast]

Got a dusting of snow here this morning.

[wx_statman]

Even better, Pasco hit -19 for an all-time record low two days from now in 2004.  It can happen in January pretty recently!  

 

Impressive reading but yeah not the all time record for the area.

 

January 2004 did bring top tier cold to parts of eastern WA, with readings like -29 in Lacrosse and -22 in Spokane.

 

Even the -29 in Kalispell can be considered top tier since they have only had 8 airmasses in the last 115 years reach -30, and none since 12/29/90.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I personally have only taken an intro to A.I. course. Have you taken several A.I. courses, or do you specialize in that at all, or are you just interested in applying it to meteorology?

 

I've taken an A.I. course before, but most of what I learned was from independent research and using various machine learning techniques to solve biometric recognition problems; currently working on writing a book about it. Image recognition is a big part of it, so it wouldn't be a huge leap to bring it into meteorological prediction; perhaps developing better indices to recognize Arctic blast potential in the PNW. Things like PDO are generally calculated by applying Principal Component Analysis to temperature/pressure/etc grids in a large geographic area.

[wx_statman]

Eh, that's a bit wrong. The airport did hit -19 in 2004, but they only have reliable records back to the mid 80s and are not an official NCDC COOP station. The coldest official temp in the Tri-Cities was -29 at Kennewick on 12/13/1919, which was by all accounts a way colder airmass.

 

Yeah for the lower Columbia basin January 2004 wasn't even in the ballpark as some of the big hitters from the past, like 1919, 1930, 1950 etc.

[wx_statman]

I've taken an A.I. course before, but most of what I learned was from independent research and using various machine learning techniques to solve biometric recognition problems; currently working on writing a book about it. Image recognition is a big part of it, so it wouldn't be a huge leap to bring it into meteorological prediction; perhaps developing better indices to recognize Arctic blast potential in the PNW. Things like PDO are generally calculated by applying Principal Component Analysis to temperature/pressure/etc grids in a large geographic area.

 

That sounds like really interesting stuff. Seriously.

[westiztehbest]

Yeah, with Dr. Pu if you had her while you were here.

I remember her!  She was the nicest.  Always helped me with my met hw.

[MossMan]

So any changes with the possible snowfall in the far northern Wa zones?

[HighlandExperience]

So any changes with the possible snowfall in the far northern Wa zones?

 

Looks decent for southern BC. WRF probably overdoing it IMO.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow24.36.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight.  The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling.

 

The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country.  Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter.  No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter.  I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks decent for southern BC. WRF probably overdoing it IMO.

 

 

Environment Canada is forecasting about 1" for the lowest elevations near the coast with up to 4-8" inland and higher Elevations. 

[MossMan]

 

 

I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight. The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling.

The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country. Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter. No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter. I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year.

I remember back in the 80's there were a few dud January's but we had great Febuary's! I think one of those years (1988?) i had snow on the ground for most of the month, wouldn't mind a repeat!

 

Or a repeat of Feb 2011, that was a great last week of the month! We have plenty of winter left. Also in terms of January, didn't we have a snooze fest in Jan 1996 until the last week of the month, then it turned great, could be a repeat, looks like the PNA is hinting on dropping after mid month.

[ShawniganLake]

I remember back in the 80's there were a few dud January's but we had great Febuary's! I think one of those years (1988?) i had snow on the ground for most of the month, wouldn't mind a repeat!

 

Or a repeat of Feb 2011, that was a great last week of the month! We have plenty of winter left. Also in terms of January, didn't we have a snooze fest in Jan 1996 until the last week of the month, then it turned great, could be a repeat, looks like the PNA is hinting on dropping after mid month.

Feb 1989.  My area recorded 26 days of snowcover that month.  Big arctic blast to open the month.  Carried over into the first week of March as well

[GHweatherChris]

 

I think you can stick a fork in any snow potential south of Whatcom County tonight.  The low level air mass is just way too wet to support any wet bulb cooling.

 

The good news is the pattern being shown by the various models over the next two weeks is not a typical El Nino pattern as evidenced by the CPC analogs and the lack of a coherent southern branch of the jet across the southern part of the country.  Besides that the CFS shows the warm ENSO anomalies will weaken through the remainder of the winter.  No way this event will go down as an official El Nino, which could be bad news for next winter.  I'm not sure enough warm water was purged from the "system" this winter to avoid another El Nino attempt later in the year.

 

I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight.

 

And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know.

 

[MossMan]

Feb 1989.  My area recorded 26 days of snowcover that month.  Big arctic blast to open the month.  Carried over into the first week of March as well

That's right, forgot that was the same winter as the big March snow. That was a great stretch!

[snow_wizard]

I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight.

 

And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know.

 

925mb (1).gif

 

I suppose some non sticking snow is possible in a few places.

[MossMan]

I think if 925 temps stay below zero long than progged, than more areas may at least see some wet non sticking snow late tonight.

 

And 925 temps are colder right now than progged so you never know.

 

925mb (1).gif

Would be nice to see some flakes falling even if it did not stick. I am only at 36 degrees, figured I would have been up near 40 by now.

[GHweatherChris]

I suppose some non sticking snow is possible in a few places.

I would love to just see snow falling at this rate.

[snow_wizard]

That's right, forgot that was the same winter as the big March snow. That was a great stretch!

 

That winter was truly great where I lived thanks to a c-zone that brought a good snow in early Jan also.  I'll never forget the Feb blast and the March snow.

[snow_wizard]

I would love to just see snow falling at this rate.

 

At least we had an ok snowfall here in late November which stuck around for a while. 

[BLI snowman]

37/34 with a light north wind at BLI. We'll see if we can hang onto the north winds tonight with some precip. 33 degree sticking slop is possible if we do.

[Bham_Guy]

37/34 with a light north wind at BLI. We'll see if we can hang onto the north winds tonight with some precip. 33 degree sticking slop is possible if we do.

 

Definitely a marginal setup for us. The north county should do OK.