February 2015 PNW Discussion

[snow_wizard]

A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over.

[weather girl]

A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over.

Gah!!!!! It's about time. This pattern has been just relentless. Waiting for ENSO to kind of bust, too. Any signs?

[TT-SEA]

A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over.

 

Even a year like 2002-03 managed a cold snap in February.

 

Got down into the 20s here on several nights in a row... lowest was 21 on 2/24/03.

 

March and the first half of April were pretty miserable and wet in 2003 but it was just gorgeous last half of spring that year... and a spectacular summer.

[bainbridgekid]

Ridiculous stat of the night:

 

Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above.

 

For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water!

 

04-05: 14

05-06: 6

06-07: 3

07-08: 2

08-09: 4

09-10: 16

10-11: 8

11-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)

12-13: 5

13-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)

14-15: 38

[TT-SEA]

Ridiculous stat of the night:

 

Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above.

 

For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water!

 

04-05: 14

05-06: 6

06-07: 3

07-08: 2

08-09: 4

09-10: 16

10-11: 8

11-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)

12-13: 5

13-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)

14-15: 38

 

 

Great work.

 

How about 2002-03 and 1991-92?

[bainbridgekid]

Great work.

 

How about 2002-03 and 1991-92?

11 and 14 respectively.

 

Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot.

[snow_wizard]

11 and 14 respectively.

 

Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot.

57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters.

[snow_wizard]

Gah!!!!! It's about time. This pattern has been just relentless. Waiting for ENSO to kind of bust, too. Any signs?

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 have already dropped a bunch and Nino 3.4 is only +0.5. The Nino was too weak this winter to blame what happened on ENSO. There were other factors at play.

[TT-SEA]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 have already dropped a bunch and Nino 3.4 is only +0.5. The Nino was too weak this winter to blame what happened on ENSO. There were other factors at play.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/poama.nino34.small.png

[bainbridgekid]

57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters.

57-58 had 17, so still less than half as many as this Winter.

[TT-SEA]

57-58 had 17, so still less than half as many as this Winter.

UHI when comparing to some of those older years?

[Front Ranger]

Ridiculous stat of the night:

 

Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above.

 

For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water!

 

04-05: 14

05-06: 6

06-07: 3

07-08: 2

08-09: 4

09-10: 16

10-11: 8

11-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)

12-13: 5

13-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)

14-15: 38

 

Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period.

 

Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years.

 

Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November.

[Jesse]

This winter has been a strange one. Practically nonexistent.

 

Went out hiking near White Salmon today and there are already flowers starting to bloom. We even saw a small butterfly.

 

This is after warm-season plant and animal behavior already stretched well into early-November last fall. 

[Jesse]

Hoping next week delivers my first freeze since January 2nd!

 

Incredibly long stretch for the heart of winter. Especially considering there have been plenty of clear nights and ridgy periods. It's not like it's been a rainy SW flow fest the last 40 days.

[Jesse]

Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period.

 

Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years.

 

Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November.

 

The stat says a lot IMO. Picking any random number as a cutoff is arbitrary, but we do it all the time, for cold stats and warm ones. 

[Front Ranger]

57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters.

 

No records for Boeing Field back then. 

 

However, nearby Kent had 35 in 1940-41.

[Front Ranger]

The stat says a lot IMO. Picking any random number as a cutoff is arbitrary, but we do it all the time, for cold stats and warm ones. 

 

I agree. I think the first and last sentence of my post made that clear

[snow_wizard]

I agree. I think the first and last sentence of my post made that clear

Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog.

[Jesse]

Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog.

 

Still a good chance we won't have to worry about that.

[Front Ranger]

Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog.

 

I assume you're talking about 1940-41? Think you replied to the wrong post...

 

On the other hand, global warming was just in its infancy in 1941. The PDO wasn't even a twinkle in UW researcher's eyes. January 1950 was almost a decade away. Whole different world.

[TT-SEA]

Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog.

 

 

Which one?

 

82-83 or 40-41?

[Dan the Weatherman]

11 and 14 respectively.

 

Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot.

How about 1996-97? It was an absolute torch of a spring in Socal that year and I am curious if the PNW was warm as well at any point during that season or whether the warmth was limited to CA in the spring. It was actually quite wet down here from late October until the end of January with normal temperatures, and then the rainy season abruptly shut off and got really warm from March onward.

[Front Ranger]

How about 1996-97? It was an absolute torch of a spring in Socal that year and I am curious if the PNW was warm as well at any point during that season or whether the warmth was limited to CA in the spring. It was actually quite wet down here from late October until the end of January with normal temperatures, and then the rainy season abruptly shut off and got really warm from March onward.

 

That winter/spring was pretty close to normal for the PNW. Didn't really have a torchy month until May.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Which one?

 

82-83 or 40-41?

So far, this winter in CA has been nothing like 82-83 or 40-41. Both of those seasons were extremely wet in CA without overly long dry periods, including Socal, and Los Angeles recorded over 30" of rain in each of those two seasons. This winter has had El Nino-like tendencies, but unfortunately without the rains brought on by moderate and strong Ninos.

[Dan the Weatherman]

That winter/spring was pretty close to normal for the PNW. Didn't really have a torchy month until May.

It sounds as if the warmth arrived later up there, which I figured was probably the case. May 1997 was extremely warm in Socal and if I remember correctly, it was the warmest May on record for many Socal locations.

[stuffradio]

Hoping next week delivers my first freeze since January 2nd!

 

Incredibly long stretch for the heart of winter. Especially considering there have been plenty of clear nights and ridgy periods. It's not like it's been a rainy SW flow fest the last 40 days.

 

The rain gauge IMBY says you're wrong.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period.

 

Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years.

 

Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November.

Oh it's about as cherry picked as they come. 

 

Still absolutely remarkable like you said though. 55+ is a pretty good benchmark for torching in the Winter, so having nearly half the days over such a long stretch be that warm is amazing, especially since we've had Winters with ZERO such days in all of December and January.

[stuffradio]

Lows of 32 F and highs in the 50's and sunny... perfect spring days next week!

[Front Ranger]

Oh it's about as cherry picked as they come. 

 

Still absolutely remarkable like you said though. 55+ is a pretty good benchmark for torching in the Winter, so having nearly half the days over such a long stretch be that warm is amazing, especially since we've had Winters with ZERO such days in all of December and January.

 

Yup.

 

Hell, back in 2007-08, when global warming was taking a breather, there were no 55+ days from Dec 5 - Feb 20.

[BLI snowman]

Yup.

 

Hell, back in 2007-08, when global warming was taking a breather, there were no 55+ days from Dec 5 - Feb 20.

 

Legendary!

[Front Ranger]

Legendary!

 

It was quite a feat, if you consider those types of stats important.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears.

 

At this point, all models are indicating the blocking will be a little too far east for you guys to really score, just like the November and December events. Still, at least it's something to keep an eye on, and a better pattern than anything seen so far in 2015.

[BLI snowman]

It was quite a feat, if you consider those types of stats important.

 

I like January 1937. Monthly high of 43 in Seattle and 44 in Portland. Quite a feat!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears.

 

 

Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains.   

 

Another dry, cool, sunny period.   

 

Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains.   

 

Another dry, cool, sunny period.   

 

Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow.

 

Warm ridging would actually be worse. Just sayin'....

[TT-SEA]

Warm ridging would actually be worse. Just sayin'....

 

 

There is no snow to protect with a chilly pattern.    

 

Any pattern that does not result in copious mountain snow right now is bad.

[BLI snowman]

There is no snow to protect with a chilly pattern.    

 

Any pattern that does not result in copious mountain snow right now is bad.

 

Still 57" at Paradise and a 29" base at Baker. Pathetic, but that's snow nonetheless. 

 

Obviously we desperately need more up there however we can get it. 

[HighlandExperience]

Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains.   

 

Another dry, cool, sunny period.   

 

Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Not that excited about a repeat of what we just went through earlier in the winter. 

[snow_wizard]

At this point, all models are indicating the blocking will be a little too far east for you guys to really score, just like the November and December events. Still, at least it's something to keep an eye on, and a better pattern than anything seen so far in 2015.

Not later on. The blocking becomes perfect during week two. As always it will come down to details.