February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Jesse]

ba.jpg

 

Wonderful news!

[Deweydog]

The thunder gave geriatric Dewey the shakes.

[HighlandExperience]

For a couple days... 850mb temps might get down to 0C,

 

Then back to warm rain by the end of next week.   

 

You know it is sad winter when 850mb temps down to 0c is a big deal. 

[Jesse]

The thunder gave geriatric Dewey the shakes.

Oh you're not THAT old.

[Front Ranger]

Oh you're not THAT old.

 

Pretty sure he meant his actual dog.

[Jesse]

You know it is sad winter when 850mb temps down to 0c is a big deal.

Jeff Foxworthy should start putting a list together.

[HighlandExperience]

I'd take it at this point.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

[epiceast]

where is 00z euro?

[Jesse]

Pretty sure he meant his actual dog.

D**n you're good!

[BLI snowman]

where is 00z euro?

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

Probably some highs in the 40s on days 7-10!

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

 

Probably some highs in the 40s on days 7-10!

this is almost comical that we even care about this. I Have to admit I am looking forward to it but I would only share that on this forum or my family might send me for counseling. . I think many of us were predicting a nice winter type pattern by spring when it does not matter anymore.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is primed for something big after day 10, but we need to see more support for that before giving it much credence. A big rex block at 160W is loaded with potential. At any rate I will be thrilled to see something other than torching.

[snow_wizard]

this is almost comical that we even care about this. I Have to admit I am looking forward to it but I would only share that on this forum or my family might send me for counseling. . I think many of us were predicting a nice winter type pattern by spring when it does not matter anymore.

It's still pretty early in the season. Any time in February is capable of delivering big time. Not saying it has much chance of happening, but this type of post from you drives me crazy. I could care less if we don't get anything until March as long as we get something sometime. At this point anything we can manage to score will be a gigantic improvement.

[richard mann]

-
" .... 19 inches of fresh powder at mid-mountain, 14 inches of new snow at the base."
 
 — At Mt. Bachelor.
 
  http://www.proxigee.com/150209_06z_goes-w-ir-t.png
    (Click the image.)
  source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm

[ShawniganLake]

Whoa! 6z gfs anyone?

[IbrChris]

IBRChris should have an update for us.

Impressive event...perhaps unparalleled in February, at least in the last several decades. Last Feb tstorm at PDX was in 1999 when surprisingly it occurred on 3 separate days. This one was a similar setup to one of those events too (albeit this one occurred in a milder airmass aloft). 55 kts of shear with rather stout mid-level instability is quite rare around here, let alone in Feb.

[Prairiedog]

It was an impressive lightening and thunder show for sure. Can't remember anything like that in early Feb ever. I'm between Oregon City and Gresham and while most of the show was just a little west of me, it was impressive. A lot of showers moving through now. Looks like a couple inches of snow at pass level the next 24 hours but then inversion time again. Have not snowshoe'd one time this season. More 60's in the mountains coming up again.

We were hiking last weekend along some ridge tops (Goat Mtn between Estacada and Molalla at 4,200ft. ) It was a balmy 58f and sunny. No snow, not even in the shade. I've only seen small amounts of snow up there a couple of times this winter. My daughter went with her church for an overnight event and innertubing at Snowbunny (near Government Camp) last weekend. They had to truck snow in for the weekend tubers to play. 4,000ft and in Feb., they're trucking in snow. Something not right when we're getting early Feb thunder and lightening instead of snow.

[stuffradio]

Old man winter on the 6Z. That would be quite damaging to all the plants already becoming un-dormant. I'll mark this as an outlier for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z would give me quite a bit of snow

[Jesse]

The 06z would give me quite a bit of snow

Outlier.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Outlier.

Yep! Based on past "possible" cold event runs this season - it is very likely it will continue to get pushed back, then marginalize, then disappear over the next 3 to 5 days.

[HighlandExperience]

Yep! Based on passed runs it is very likely this it will continue to get pushed back, then marginalize, then disappear over the next 3 to 5 days. 

 

Let the 12z ECMWF and other models finish before jumping to conclusions.

 

Although I can understand why you feel pessimistic. Just seems like we can't catch any breaks this season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting that Mt. Bachelor has done so well compared to other PNW ski areas. They are still picking up snow this morning as Timberline is 35 with rain. Their website claims they have the deepest base of any ski area on the west coast right now. Still a paltry 48".

[Jesse]

Yep! Based on passed "possible" cold event runs this season - it is very likely it will continue to get pushed back, then marginalize, then disappear over the next 3 to 5 days. 

 

Past.

 

And no. Just take it one run at a time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Past.

 

And no. Just take it one run at a time.

 

This run means everything!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty impressive wind gusts as of 9am.

 

Salem S32G41

EUG   S30G40

Newport S39G64

[MossMan]

Past.

 

And no. Just take it one run at a time.

You really need to get past the whole grammar thing. This is a weather forum, not a writing class.

 

How does the 12z look?

[HighlandExperience]

You really need to get past the whole grammar thing. This is a weather forum, not a writing class.

 

How does the 12z look?

 

Still running. Up to HR 192 now. First half of the month is not that impressive. Hope the second half is better. Hopefully the cooler trend show towards the end will continue.

 

Tired of seeing the Northeast corridor get slammed with storm after storm.

[Jesse]

This run means everything!

 

The 12Z looks about right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't worry.. Nothing of real interest on the 12z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A hastily posted Wind Advisory has just appeared for the Central and South Willamette Valley. 

[stuffradio]

You really need to get past the whole grammar thing. This is a weather forum, not a writing class.

 

How does the 12z look?

That was a spelling mistake, not a grammar mistake.

 

12Z couldn't be further from the 06Z... or could it?

[HighlandExperience]

That was a spelling mistake, not a grammar mistake.

 

12Z couldn't be further from the 06Z... or could it?

 

We are going to have to hear Joe Bastardi brag about all of his snow and global cooling while we torch forever.

[MossMan]

Have you ever seen the movie "Idiocracy"?

Yes I have. Funny and sad at the same time! I don't think we are heading down that road anytime soon.

 

A pleasant spring morning up here, low 50's and dry!

[stuffradio]

We are going to have to hear Joe Bastardi brag about all of his snow and global cooling while we torch forever.

Global Cooling causes torching in some spots.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Global Cooling causes torching in some spots.

global warming causes cooling in some spots...

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian sure looks interesting next week.   

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem gusting to 48 now.

[DareDuck]

Wet and windy morning. .35" the last few hours with several gusts near 40mph.

[Deweydog]

You really need to get past the whole grammar thing. This is a weather forum, not a writing class.

 

How does the 12z look?

He's a teacher, and/or a teacher-like substance, you know. He's compelled by oath to demean others.