February 2014 in the PNW

[umadbro]

How how did you get the title "professional met"?  Because you aren't one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a pretty clear sign for troughing around the first of March. The operational kind of goes off on its own there at the end though...

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

My question is ... with the wind storms in the PAC NW and a squall-line with thunderstorms moving through ... wouldn't that count as a severe thunderstorm for those that get it... probably mainly coast of WA and NW OR where storms will be.

 

You should come up here for a winter storm.    Its much less enjoyable and much more miserable than our summer storms.    Think soaking wet and cold with very dark skies.   

[KMartin]

How how did you get the title "professional met"?  Because you aren't one.

Yeah, I kinda am.  Professional Met is someone who makes a living off of forecast the weather and I make a living with my site, my clients, and different media outlets who use my forecasts on a contract basis. 

 

You also have two posts, you just signed up ... Do not start trouble with me ... Mods need to ban you unless you decide to play nice, kid.  Like I say all the time ... i NEVER start fights first ... I defend myself against trolls like you.  Post more and don't just sign-up on here to belittle ME

[umadbro]

Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.  

[KMartin]

You should come up here for a winter storm.    Its much less enjoyable and much more miserable than our summer storms.    Think soaking wet and cold with very dark skies.   

I bet.  Been wanting to take a drive to experience both a winter and a wind storm up there.  Better than what we have down here that's for sure.

[KMartin]

Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.  

See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ...

 

Your turn ...

[TT-SEA]

I bet.  Been wanting to take a drive to experience both a winter and a wind storm up there.  Better than what we have down here that's for sure.

 

 

For a little while.       

[MossMan]

Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain. So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe? Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.

[Bryant]

Dynamics don't support thunderstorms while we're socked in with clouds and moderate rain.  So again, how do you get thunderstorms let alone severe?   Oh by the way, calling names basically means you just lost.

 

There is nothing to win or lose here, which just shows you're obviously here for the wrong reasons. You signed up just to harass a member, which highlights your lack of maturity. Move along.

[umadbro]

my turn...

Not enough warming aloft.

[TT-SEA]

Kevin has been posting interesting and topical stuff on here since his return.   His analysis has been great... and informative.   

 

Do we have to get into this other crap?     Just let him post.

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle is even mentioning T-Storms are a possibility on the coast and even inland.

[umadbro]

I am talking weather.  I asked him where he got the idea of storms.  It's not my fault everyone is upset about it.  I just refuse to drink his Kool aid.  

[East Dubzz]

If an inbox message bothers you, report it, do not post it on here for everyone to see. Thank you.

[umadbro]

I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.  Only if Kevin does the same.

[KMartin]

And do you blame me?  I take things to PM when being harassed.  I don't visually open in on the forum like before.  You posting a PM clearly means you don't understand the defnition of personal message.  You had TWO posts.  Your first post was against me.  Clearly you are one of those envious failed weather people who need to focus on building your own career in weather like I hae an a little less time following those who are more successful than you just to troll. 

I'm not going to open fire on you in the public forum, but I will state what I think of you trolls over PM.  It's simple ... Do not address me online with BS where I need to defend myself.  I'm too old for this crap and have been doing it for 18 years.

[TT-SEA]

I am talking weather.  I asked him where he got the idea of storms.  It's not my fault everyone is upset about it.  I just refuse to drink his Kool aid.  

 

 

He did respond... and with pertinent details:

 

"See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ..."

[KMartin]

Now let's do a mature conversation and go back and forth on why you think thunderstorms won't be possible and why I do.  No one is right ... no one is wrong ... But I will listen to reasoning and when it happens it'll be a learning experience for the person who was wrong ... No harm done.

[umadbro]

I just don't think you should call someone a kid out in the open and then send a PM like a kid to that person.  Hypocritical.  I told you why.  Storms won't happen.  You told me why they will.  I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.  I have no problem being wrong.  It happens.  At the same time.  Calling me a "failed met" or "envious is BS.  I am focused on building a career in meteorology.  I plan to get a degree eventually.  I'm just taking my sweet time because it's a bit expensive.  And just because you get paid to "forecast" doesn't make you a professional.  That's a slap in the face and total disrespect to guys and gals who spend the money time and years to get degrees in this stuff.

[KMartin]

Here is the PVA thought.  I used the 500mb vort on the COD website.  This is the RAP.  You can see the upper divergence by the spread in heights on and ahead of the trough axis.  But there is something else.  Notice the blue/purple over Western WA.  That's low vorticity.  Three hours later on the right image you can see its now red, or higher vorticity.  This change from low to high values is called POSITIVE vorticity advection (PVA) ... The positive vorticity numbers are 'advecting' or advancing inward.  This sharp move from low to high like that signifies some pretty nice upper dynamics in play.  

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum15.jpg

[KMartin]

I won't argue about my field of work in the private or commercial industry.  Those who got degrees, that is good ... But I started my own venture because I saw how saturated the field would be.  I know ones with met degrees who still work at fast food joints.  It's a saturated business and with the predictive models today, more are going in because it's EASIER than in the 90s.  So I do my own forecasting for clients and also full time on my site, which equals a full-time income.   You don't need a degree to have a brain in this field.  Many on this forum I've seen are just as good if not smarter than those who hold a degree.  Degrees are for people whom want to get hired ... Not for people who want to own their own business in this field... 

See Bill Gates ...

[IbrChris]

I won't argue about my field of work in the private or commercial industry.  Those who got degrees, that is good ... But I started my own venture because I saw how saturated the field would be.  I know ones with met degrees who still work at fast food joints.  It's a saturated business and with the predictive models today, more are going in because it's EASIER than in the 90s.  So I do my own forecasting for clients and also full time on my site, which equals a full-time income.   You don't need a degree to have a brain in this field.  Many on this forum I've seen are just as good if not smarter than those who hold a degree.  Degrees are for people whom want to get hired ... Not for people who want to own their own business in this field... 

 

See Bill Gates ...

 

LOTS of jobs for entry-level mets coming up with NWS beginning a hiring binge shortly (to fill spots vacated by attrition last several years). Anticipated couple hundred openings with openings at most offices. Also ATC (Air Traffic Control) has issued a rare call for general public applicants (must be under age 31) which is another great career path for meteorologists.

 

It's actually looking like a decent job market for degreed mets for the next couple years.

[epiceast]

For a little while.    Gets old real fast.

 

I have friend on facebook from Phoenix who is visiting Seattle this week.     His first posts were about the 'fun' rain and wind.  Today he is posting about happily leaving this afternoon for home because its pretty miserable here.        

LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.

[KMartin]

KOLM (Olympia, WA) -

Before front 700-500 lapse rates are 6.4 c/km
Afer front it's 7.4 c/km ...

Front hits at 2z so along the front would be around 7.1 c/km so not bad at all.

Lapse rates are acceptable as well. 

[Weather101]

This forum is funny

[KMartin]

LOTS of jobs for entry-level mets coming up with NWS beginning a hiring binge shortly (to fill spots vacated by attrition last several years). Anticipated couple hundred openings with openings at most offices. Also ATC (Air Traffic Control) has issued a rare call for general public applicants (must be under age 31) which is another great career path for meteorologists.

 

It's actually looking like a decent job market for degreed mets for the next couple years.

Well that's good for those that are waiting to get in.  However I really enjoy the freedom without a boss to put forecasts out.  It's just what style of work I enjoy doing but some don't so that's good news for those who have been waiting.  NWS has over 400 positions they haven't filled yet.  Some offices are understaffed, in fact most are ... That's why I offer my custom alerts to my clients and viewers.  I can help fill those gaps in because I don't need a major budget to inform them. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.

 

I know... it was a pretty good week overall.

[TT-SEA]

LOL. It wasn't even that bad here, I remember quite a bit of blue sky.

 

I know... it was a pretty good week overall.

[IbrChris]

He did respond... and with pertinent details:

 

"See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you.  I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ...  PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ..."

 

It's a typical springtime garden-variety tstorm setup for the PNW, one we see a dozen-plus times every late winter and spring. 500 mb cold pool looks reasonable, not overly impressive. I've seen -35c at 500 mb over top a surface temp of +10c producing LI of about -2 in a good PNW spring tstorm setup, this one will probably yield a LI around 0. This is decent for a few rumbles from some low-topped Cb's in the post-frontal airmass but nothing organized or noteworthy.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

KOLM (Olympia, WA) -

 

Before front 700-500 lapse rates are 6.4 c/km

Afer front it's 7.4 c/km ...

 

Front hits at 2z so along the front would be around 7.1 c/km so not bad at all.

 

Lapse rates are acceptable as well. 

 

 

That will absolutely get us into the realm of thunder possibility.  That's probably actually quite steep for this time of year.

[IbrChris]

Well that's good for those that are waiting to get in.  However I really enjoy the freedom without a boss to put forecasts out.  It's just what style of work I enjoy doing but some don't so that's good news for those who have been waiting.  NWS has over 400 positions they haven't filled yet.  Some offices are understaffed, in fact most are ... That's why I offer my custom alerts to my clients and viewers.  I can help fill those gaps in because I don't need a major budget to inform them. 

 

 

 

True. Those who have the entrepreneurial spirit, more power to them. I have a friend at NWS pushing me to join them, although minus the pension my current job pays as good or better and my benefits are also a bit better than what NWS offers (medical, retirement etc minus the gov't pension).

[Weather101]

From 50 shades of van weather blog. So yeah thunderstorm chance...

 

The AFD for Portland also suggested that due to the strength of the cold front approaching the coast paired with favourable upper level tilt in the trough, along with an increase of low level lapse rates may be enough to destabilize the atmosphere just enough so those on the immediate coast, be prepared for...

 

The occasional BOOM.

 

A possible squall of thunderstorms to develop this evening...

[IbrChris]

Another thing to note is that most convective events this time of year are surface-based. This is evident by a strong 500 mb cold pool being able to incite quite a bit of lightning activity over the ocean and up to the coast but not much inland as surface based instability is much lower or nonexistent once inland from the coast. 

Compare this to our summertime setups which are primarily due to elevated instability and mid-hi level moisture advection/theta-e advection from the SW monsoon.

[TT-SEA]

For all those who think ridging in early March is so terrible and that we need months of rain and snow here is a excerpt from Cliff Mass:

 

"The latest forecasts suggest high pressure will move in on Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions aloft.  I would expect extraordinary skiing conditions then...so get ready.  By that time I would expect the Washington snow pack to be near 100% of normal, leaving us in great shape for the upcoming summer, assuming normal or even a bit below normal precipitation the rest of the season"

 

Some people on here think we have to be pounded endlessly for months on end to even approach normal to get us through our 6 weeks of true summer.  

 

Not true.   

[Deweydog]

For all those who think ridging in early March is so terrible and that we need months of rain and snow here is a excerpt from Cliff Mass:

 

"The latest forecasts suggest high pressure will move in on Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions aloft.  I would expect extraordinary skiing conditions then...so get ready.  By that time I would expect the Washington snow pack to be near 100% of normal, leaving us in great shape for the upcoming summer, assuming normal or even a bit below normal precipitation the rest of the season"

 

Some people on here think we have to be pounded endlessly for months on end to even approach normal to get us through our 6 weeks of true summer.  

 

Not true.   

 

Now that's peace of mind!  Thanks, Tim!

[Snowman Josh]

Amazing how quickly this region rebounds from abnormal climatology.

 

I'm still holding out hope for later this week as conditions appear at this point to be marginal for snow.  That being said, a little shift in the 500 mb pattern Mon/Tue could spell goods for all.  I'm watching with a telescope the next 24 hours of runs.

[KMartin]

About the area I'll focus on -

[Deweydog]

About the area I'll focus on -

 

Chances are much better near/along the coast vs. inland.  

[Timmy]

About the area I'll focus on -

You should probably focus on SoCal then... Because that map, not just the colors, doesn't work.