February 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What if EUG got another snow storm and the overrunning fell apart...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this major blast just went to modified in one run!

 

Crazy...We'll see if this is a major outlier.

[TT-SEA]

What if EUG got another snow storm and the overrunning fell apart...

 

 

[chinook]

Many places fell into the upper teens to low 20s in late November. Even PDX hit 24.

 

And to say this is a different kind of airmass is a huge understatement.

Never said it was different...hence my use of perhaps.

 

More of a question in my statement than anything...

 

Also, there were more places in the Willamette valley that underachieved in November than the forecast and only in the last day did it come close to matching.

[Gradient Keeper]

If this isn't an outlier I fear there's a chance this could be falling apart at the last second with the cold air simply not digging as far west over us as previously thought or modeled. I'll wait until the Ensembles come out I guess, and 00z EURO, but this cannot be a good sign. Usually when you're 24-36 hours away from things and when you have such solid model consistency that we've had, this wouldn't be an outlier... We'll see shortly. This run is so vastly different from the previous dozen or so GFS or EURO... It's just so off from anything the Ensembles showed too...

 

Hey, as long as it's 28-31 and snowy, that's all that matters. We don't need 20-25 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I know... its totally different.   Very strange.

 

Judging by 96 hours... I think its going to really delay the weekend precip for Seattle.

Possible this feature strengthens and comes in further north. Interesting development to say the least.

[Alex_Snakes]

You mean the snow storm that was predicted 6 days into the future isn't going to happen?

 

http://www.noooooo.info/darthvadernooo.jpg

[BLI snowman]

Eh, wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into the GFS at this point. Watch the WRF and ensembles be way different. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eh, wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into the GFS at this point. Watch the WRF and ensembles be way different. 

 

Word is the WRF is radically different.

[Snow]

Wow an interesting new development, a surface low forms along the Oregon coast overnight Thursday and makes landfall early Friday. Similar to this past December, a huge snowstorm for Southern Valley. Cold air still in place for the overrunning event so I am not concerned. GEM the past couple days was hinting on this L for Friday and now the GFS has picked it up. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the **** is your deal dude?

 

Go away. Stop ruining our forum. You literally live to see us disappointed. It's sick, twisted and weird.

 

If the 00z verified SLE would have a sub freezing high with light snow.

[TT-SEA]

Very little precip from Seattle northward for Saturday night or Sunday on that run.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF
Um, looks nearly just as cold as the past runs at least through 4:00 AM Wednesday.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020400/images_d2/slp.36.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fascinated to see the GEM and Ensembles now...

 

The NAM must have been backing off too though. It only showed 850s at about 11C for PDX and SLE...Still very cold at the surface though.

[brody]

Wow an interesting new development, a surface low forms along the Oregon coast overnight Thursday and makes landfall early Monday. Similar to this past December, a huge snowstorm for Southern Valley. Cold air still in place for the overrunning event so I am not concerned. GEM the past couple days was hinting on this L for Friday and now the GFS has picked it up. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

You mean early Friday

 

I dont see how that Low just spins and spins for 3.5 days before making landfall

[Jesse]

Fascinated to see the GEM and Ensembles now...

 

The NAM must have been backing off too though. It only showed 850s at about 11C for PDX and SLE...Still very cold at the surface though.

 

Maybe you'll get your wish and this whole thing will fall through.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe you'll get your wish and this whole thing will fall through.

 

He is evil.    

[TT-SEA]

Amazingly little precip for Seattle on the 00Z GFS from Saturday/Sunday compared to other runs.

 

Then almost certainly rain on Monday.

[Snow]

You mean early Friday

 

I dont see how that Low just spins and spins for 3.5 days before making landfall

 

Yeah, I fixed it, typo. This is inside 3.5 days and the GEM was hinting at this. We need to wait and see what the 00z GEM and ECMWF say tonight.

[FroYoBro]

Fascinated to see the GEM and Ensembles now...

 

The NAM must have been backing off too though. It only showed 850s at about 11C for PDX and SLE...Still very cold at the surface though.

Nah, the NAM brought the -15 line right to Portland. 

[TT-SEA]

Nah, the NAM brought the -15 line right to Portland. 

 

 

NAM is always too cold beyond 24 hours in these situations.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My guess is this new feature strengthens and shifts north some. Then the incoming low slows and moves in further south.

[FroYoBro]

NAM is always too cold beyond 24 hours in these situations.   

Alright. I was just letting Andrew know that the nam hasn't backed off. 

[TT-SEA]

NAM MOS has it coldest high yet for SEA on Wednesday at 30.    

 

GFS MOS still says 35.

[Jesse]

00Z GEM must be running too.

[Jesse]

I bet the operational 00Z is a huge outlier among the ensembles. So weird to see any run jump the shark like this the last minute, though. Reminiscent of January 2005.

[GobBluth]

My guess is this new feature strengthens and shifts north some. Then the incoming low slows and moves in further south.

Could be jackpot for Portland.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS MOS for SEA:

 

Tues - 36

Wed - 36

Thurs - 34

 

 

For reference... today it had 40 at SEA.

 

The actual high was 41.

[epiceast]

Major improvement on 00z. Now if climatology can bring this low 100-200 miles north and strengthen it up a bit.

[TT-SEA]

Major improvement on 00z. Now if climatology can bring this low 100-200 miles north and strengthen it up a bit.

 

North trend is our friend.    Usually a problem... maybe not this time.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS MOS for PDX:

 

Tues - 41

Wed - 37

Thurs - 36

 

 

For reference... today it had 43 at PDX.

 

The actual high was 43.

[Jesse]

It will be pretty sad if the 00z GFS verifies. Not too often we get mere hours away from historic cold to have it pulled away.

[epiceast]

North trend is our friend.    Usually a problem... maybe not this time.  

This is by far the most interesting run, especially if this low can reinforce the modified cold air + lock in low elevations into the freezer with snow cover. All of the overrunning ones were 33 in one way or another, with none amounting to much more than December's transition storm. 

[Jesse]

I hate this place sometimes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00Z GFS MOS for SEA:

 

Tues - 36

Wed - 36

Thurs - 34

 

 

For reference... today it had 40 at SEA.

 

The actual high was 41.

wouldn't surprise me. Would put most places around 31 32. I was 36 at work today in port orchard.

[FroYoBro]

I hate this place sometimes.

Take it to your therapist man. We are discussing weather. 

[epiceast]

I hate this place sometimes.

00z brings a lot more goods to the Gorge in believable than any other run potentially

[Snow]

The 00z still shows the overrunning event, so no worries even if this run were to verify.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00Z GFS MOS for PDX:

 

Tues - 41

Wed - 37

Thurs - 36

 

 

For reference... today it had 43 at PDX.

 

The actual high was 43.

no way they go to 41 tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM doesn't seem to dig the trough over us nearly as much as previous runs. Similar to the NCEP 00z GFS. Hmmm...