February 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

I am stoked about the weather for the next 7 days.     What is there to figure out?    Just because I say it will also be nice?    Its like you have to be a little dishonest on here to keep certain people happy.      

 

What is there to say.   It will be WAY below normal... and historically cold at the upper levels... and it will be a great day to be outside in Seattle on Wednesday.     All of those are true statements.     Whatever.

  

To be fair, MOS Guidance for Portland has been a joke way off by 7-10 degrees. It is going to be wrong with Seattle too.

[Jesse]

Mark's 7-Day (he made a new blog post tonight too):

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

This is great news.     No strong push.   

 

Next weekend is going to be fun.

Definitely very promising.

[Jesse]

To be fair, MOS Guidance for Portland has been a joke way off by 7-10 degrees. It is going to be wrong with Seattle too.

 

Exactly. Tim's just being a pain in the a**. He knows it, we know it. What's the point?

[TT-SEA]

This is what I was waiting for! WOW!

00z WRF 4km Time-Height model

40-50kts just off the surface! I think this might be the most 50kt wind barbs I’ve ever seen for easterly flow. High Winds possible to LIKELY east of I-205 and western Gorge. We don’t want that to increase any further or else you’re talking damaging winds, and lots of power outages probably.

 

 

 

The gorge will be rocking this week.    Its going to be brutal there.   Your description from yesterday fits perfectly there.   Brutal by anyone's standard.

[brody]

What?   There are 4-5 million people in Western Washington.    

So let's say there are exactly 5 million people in W. Wa

 

You're expecting 20% of those people to flood into DT Seattle?

[Gradient Keeper]

COLD 7-DAY.jpgMark's 7-Day (he made a new blog post tonight too):

If 12z WRF is anything 00z tonight he'll have to lower the temps even further. The sounding showed around 20 degrees for the high temp Wed-Thu.

[Gradient Keeper]

The gorge will be rocking this week.    Its going to be brutal there.   Your description from yesterday fits perfectly there.   Brutal by anyone's standard.

It very well may spill or flood over the Washington Cascades too. That deep of cold air sloshing over the Cascades seems very probable, so it may be very windy for the east Puget sound low lands too. I wouldn't rule out a High Wind Watch for that area and also down here east of I-205, Cascade Foothills.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, MOS Guidance for Portland has been a joke way off by 7-10 degrees. It is going to be wrong with Seattle too.

 

 

SEA NWS says 'low to mid 30s' and sunny on Wednesday in Seattle.    Are off by 10 degrees as well?   I am right in line with the official forecast.     We will see how the contest goes... wait until Saturday to rip on my predictions.    

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows 850mb temps dropping to -16 to -17 for the central Puget Sound. The GFS warm bias in the short term is being well exposed this time with virtually every other model and every GFS ensemble member colder than the GFS operational.

[TT-SEA]

So let's say there are exactly 5 million people in W. Wa

 

You're expecting 20% of those people to flood into DT Seattle?

 

Maybe.     At least 500,000 but who knows?   It will be tough to even get the real number.

 

600,000 in Baltimore and no city is as crazy about its football team than Seattle.

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like on the WRF that as the gradient ramps up Saturday morning it pulls in another decent surge of arctic air through the Gorge. When I see that it just makes me think this could be far more significant of a Winter Storm for PDX metro.

[Gradient Keeper]

SEA NWS says 'low to mid 30s' and sunny on Wednesday in Seattle.    Are off by 10 degrees as well?   I am right in line with the official forecast.     We will see how the contest goes... wait until Saturday to rip on my predictions.    

That's fair.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. Tim's just being a pain in the a**. He knows it, we know it. What's the point?

 

 

Tell me your number.    I say 30-35.

 

You mock.

 

I say its using MOS guidance and the same forecast that the professionals at the SEA NWS used.   But I am jerk for stating those numbers??    Tell me your number.   We will see Wednesday.    

[TT-SEA]

That's fair.

 

Thanks Rob.    Seems fair.

 

I guess 30-35 is so shockingly wrong that its insulting to mention it!   Those guys at the SEA NWS are jerks as well.   They know the high will be 22 but they are just trying to get a rise out of Jesse!   

[TT-SEA]

Tantalizingly close to a reload on the 00Z ECMWF:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020300!!chart.gif

[snow_wizard]

The echoes are getting stronger in the weak c-zone that is going on right now. Might see a dusting here.

[TT-SEA]

The echoes are getting stronger in the weak c-zone that is going on right now. Might see a dusting here.

 

Some very light snow here now... very light but it is snowing.

 

Almost looks like a c-zone forming down over you.

[Snowman Josh]

Fukk, the reload.

[TT-SEA]

Fukk, the reload.

 

Still have to see how next weekend shakes out... still potential.

[Snow]

This is the weather map for January 7, 2004, looks similar to this coming weekend. Portland had high temp of 30, Seattle 37, Bellingham 46 and Astoria 52. Portland just couldn't lose its east wind.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/n4jitf.jpg

[TT-SEA]

This is the weather map for January 7, 2004, looks similar to this coming weekend. Portland had high temp of 28, Seattle 36, Bellingham 46 and Astoria 52. Portland just couldn't lose its east wind.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/n4jitf.jpg

 

 

With that cold pool established... if there is no strong push it will take forever for PDX and the gorge to scour.     Hopefully not lots of freezing rain... but its going to be interesting.

[Snow]

With that cold pool established... if there is no strong push it will take forever for PDX and the gorge to scour.     Hopefully not lots of freezing rain... but its going to be interesting.

 

Yeah, it's going to be a messy transition. 

[Guest Winterdog]

*

[TT-SEA]

23F right now officially in Arlington and 39F at Sea-Tac. Sea-Tac is the most pathetic excuse for a weather station on the planet. Tim is no doubt correct. Sea-Tac will most likely not have a high below freezing during this event while areas within 5 miles of Sea-Tac will probably not get out of the 20's on Wednesday.

 

 

Downtown Seattle should also be in the 30-35 degree range... that is more than 5 miles from the airport.   

 

You are mocking 39 at SEA... but its 41 at Boeing Field.

[snow_wizard]

Some pretty explosive development around Vancouver Island going on. Totally unexpected. Looking at the sat loop clouds are rapidly developing as Arctic spills out over the Strait of Georgia and the ocean.

 

The c-zone showing up in this area has yet to do much here, but the radar looks very interesting. Currently 34 and dp below freezing so it should be snow if it does anything.

[Gradient Keeper]

*

Best post of the night, if not the entire February thread thus far.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the weather map for January 7, 2004, looks similar to this coming weekend. Portland had high temp of 30, Seattle 37, Bellingham 46 and Astoria 52. Portland just couldn't lose its east wind.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/n4jitf.jpg

Good post, and that very well may be similar to the surface map come Saturday night-Sunday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Some very light snow here now... very light but it is snowing.

 

Almost looks like a c-zone forming down over you.

So LUCKY man! ....

[brody]

Some pretty explosive development around Vancouver Island going on. Totally unexpected. Looking at the sat loop clouds are rapidly developing as Arctic spills out over the Strait of Georgia and the ocean.

 

The c-zone showing up in this area has yet to do much here, but the radar looks very interesting. Currently 34 and dp below freezing so it should be snow if it does anything.

I wouldnt say explosive Jim but good development considering the trajectory from cold land mass over warm water and it has A LOT more warm water to move over too.

[Gradient Keeper]

I wouldnt say explosive Jim but good development considering the trajectory from cold land mass over warm water and it has A LOT more warm water to move over too.

I would say it's quite good enhancement, if not explosive. Not bad looking on 2km IR Loop.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=ir&size=2

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=sew&area=west&type=ir&size=2

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/2km/Portland/IR2PDX.GIF

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/2km/Spokane/IR2OTX.GIF

[Guest Winterdog]

Downtown Seattle should also be in the 30-35 degree range... that is more than 5 miles from the airport.   

 

You are mocking 39 at SEA... but its 41 at Boeing Field.

That's why I tried to delete the stupid post but you got to it too fast. Sea-Tac is still pathetic though anyway.

[Guest Winterdog]

Best post of the night, if not the entire February thread thus far.

And that might be the funniest post for the entire thread.

[Gradient Keeper]

And that might be the funniest post for the entire thread.

Thanks, I do what I can, when I can... Snowing there?

[Guest Winterdog]

No, clear and 26F

[Guest Monty67]

I wouldnt say explosive Jim but good development considering the trajectory from cold land mass over warm water and it has A LOT more warm water to move over too.

I think the radar is being a little sensitive tonight. Just had a bright radar echo pass overhead and it only produced light snow pellets. I am basically 10-15 miles west of YYJ. I am more interested to see if the cells up towards nanaimo can continue to develop as the move south.

[brody]

I would say it's quite good enhancement, if not explosive. Not bad looking on 2km IR Loop.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=ir&size=2

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=sew&area=west&type=ir&size=2

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/2km/Portland/IR2PDX.GIF

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/2km/Spokane/IR2OTX.GIF

Per Jim's comment I only looked at radar and NOT IR which I should have done and just did and now agree with both of you

[brody]

Gotta say the wind is a little more brisk than I was expecting tonight 

[epiceast]

Stuff is trying to happen in the future convergence zone area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I've picked up a dusting of snow this evening.