February 2014 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Yup and this is the GFS for Monday morning, still cold gorge outflow for PDX pumping in cold air. With snow/ice cover, things will not thaw without shutting off the east winds.

 

My area always gets a watered down version of what Portland gets in outflow situations since I'm in line for outflow from Stampede Pass. The entire weekend should be cold for anyone in outflow areas.

[snow_wizard]

Wasn't that the year PDX got 5" of snow on April 1st?

 

Then a cold November period followed, then January 1937 was very cold, and February 1, 1937 had an insane snow storm.

 

Oh yeah and wasn't it October 31, 1935 when much of the Willamette Valley saw accumulating snow? Two great years in a row there.

Indeed. October 1935 through Feb 1937 was an AMAZING period for Arctic blasts and snow.

 

You are correct Portland the big April Fools day storm that year. A few days after the Puget Sound region scored big in late March. Perhaps the only thing that keeps me going in this climate sometimes is knowing what is possible. The entire late October to very early April is capable of delivering some very extreme cold anomalies.

[Snow]

My area always gets a watered down version of what Portland gets in outflow situations since I'm in line for outflow from Stampede Pass. The entire weekend should be cold for anyone in outflow areas.

 

Yep, those with snow cover and continued outflow wont make it above freezing IMO. This should be a nice event for most people.

[westiztehbest]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is slightly negative and SOI has jumped dramatically.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The 45 day CFS mean has been very consistent in showing an anomaly pattern very much like this.  Cold in the far NW and cold digging deep over the heartland.  Given the consistency and the fact the CPC Feb outlook is almost exactly like this I think it's probably a good call.  Many CFS runs have indicated another period of cold in late Feb or early Mar.

[epiceast]

Maybe a convergence zone tonight? that thing off the coast is pretty organized and moving into Olympic mountains, if it collides with the cold air the sound could have a fun Monday morning.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is slightly negative and SOI has jumped dramatically.

 

 

 

I think the SOI has proven its worth as a forecasting tool.  It foretold the cold wave in December also.  The 30 day is so high now I think the Nino could be in danger.  Oh darn.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GEM offers a much different solution that keeps the jet very suppressed in spite of the block moving west sooner than some of the other models.  Intriguing.  

[snow_wizard]

No question the SEA readings are going to be absurdly high with this cold snap.  They are currently showing 45 which is higher than any other station in western WA.  3 degrees higher than Boeing Field which is also higher than any other in the Puget Sound area.  What a shame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind has now switched to north here. Temp is 42 under cloudy skies. Interesting to see if I can squeeze out any precip tonight and tomorrow night.

[westiztehbest]

The 45 day CFS mean has been very consistent in showing an anomaly pattern very much like this.  Cold in the far NW and cold digging deep over the heartland.  Given the consistency and the fact the CPC Feb outlook is almost exactly like this I think it's probably a good call.  Many CFS runs have indicated another period of cold in late Feb or early Mar.

 

Nearly the whole run looks cold.  Could be a cold spring.  The model mean for Nino predicts +ENSO conditions by summer but I'm skeptical.

[snow_wizard]

Cloud tops are brightening over Vancouver Island. There might be hope for snow snow flurries tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

Cloud tops are brightening over Vancouver Island. There might be hope for snow snow flurries tonight.

The moisture over the pacific is looking more and more organized, could get interesting this evening and overnight.

[snow_wizard]

I will be most interested to see how cold the Fraser outflow is by Tuesday night or so. I'm guessing it bottoms out around 10F. I think even people from cold parts of the country would agree that 10 degrees with 40 to 50 mph winds is pretty respectable. I'm seeing a real chance of over performance with this event as far as cold temps are concerned.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will be most interested to see how cold the Fraser outflow is by Tuesday night or so. I'm guessing it bottoms out around 10F. I think even people from cold parts of the country would agree that 10 degrees with 40 to 50 mph winds is pretty respectable. I'm seeing a real chance of over performance with this event as far as cold temps are concerned.

I remember growing up when something like this was going to unfold the nsw would make sure everyone new how rare cold like this is for this area. Now they make it sound like nothing. Its going to be one of the coldest pushes of air in February in many years!.

[TT-SEA]

Cloud tops are brightening over Vancouver Island. There might be hope for snow snow flurries tonight.

 

 

ECMWF says its stays west of Puget Sound as it slides south.

[GHweatherChris]

ECMWF says its stays west of Puget Sound as it slides south.

Fine with me, I just hope it holds together as it moves south.

 

NWS has changed my forecast to chance of snow overnight, was just chance of rain.

 

But if it can get through the strait before southerly movement kicks in then who knows what will happen.

[Dadio]

How strong of a pressure difference are we looking for the Fraser outflow to get going enough to start really dropping temps across western Washington? 

[GHweatherChris]

No question the SEA readings are going to be absurdly high with this cold snap.  They are currently showing 45 which is higher than any other station in western WA.  3 degrees higher than Boeing Field which is also higher than any other in the Puget Sound area.  What a shame.

Its 44 in Hoquiam, 45 here.

 

Pretty much what I figured it would be for todays highs.  I think temps will fall quickly late this afternoon and evening, especially when precip gets going

[GHweatherChris]

925 temps:

 

[TT-SEA]

Its 44 in Hoquiam, 45 here.

 

Pretty much what I figured it would be for todays highs.  I think temps will fall quickly late this afternoon and evening, especially when precip gets going

 

Snow during the Super Bowl?   I think I would pass out from sensory overload.   I am already on the edge of my seat... thankfully its mostly sunny outside.

[westiztehbest]

Cold indeed.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Snow during the Super Bowl?   I think I would pass out from sensory overload.   I am already on the edge of my seat... thankfully its mostly sunny outside.

I was thinking that earlier, thats why I am hoping that it holds off til after the game.  

 

Rain is likely til 8 pm IMO then transition to snow after if the moisture can hold together.

 

I have been watching the Forks observation, it has been raining there for a little while now.  Just waiting to see how much influence the moisture has on temps since 925s are below zero.

[Dadio]

It was sunny here at 12:30 with just scattered high clouds. Now a broken overcast has moved in from the west.

[TT-SEA]

North Bend outlet mall was deserted on this gorgeous day.    Maybe 30 cars in the entire parking lot.   Wonder what else is going on???

 

[Dadio]

The pressure is still pretty high in the north of Hope, BC and has dropped in the puget sound area. Is there any chance of an arctic front forming when the cold air moves in?

[Utrex]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is slightly negative and SOI has jumped dramatically.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.png

 

If you've noticed, straight lines that run along the SOI usually go deeper their opposite ways. In other words, the SOI is about to see a big drop…

[whitechristmas]

I remember growing up when something like this was going to unfold the nsw would make sure everyone new how rare cold like this is for this area. Now they make it sound like nothing. Its going to be one of the coldest pushes of air in February in many years!.

 

Yah, you're right. The NWS in PDX says rain and a "quick" shot of snow this weekend! If what I've been reading on this forum is correct, I think a quick shot might be a bit underachieving? Especially in gorge/eastern counties.

[epiceast]

Radar returns already over hood canal. This is good.

[Weather101]

Why is the NAM showing snow Tuesday ?

[Dadio]

If you've noticed, straight lines that run along the SOI usually go deeper their opposite ways. In other words, the SOI is about to see a big drop…

So, you are expecting it to shift to El Nino status? We'll see. I don't expect it. Just guessing, but I think the Enso is going to stay neutral this year. At the very least I don't see it changing in any dramatic fashion to affect our weather this February. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I dont like the trend of the 18z next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Radar returns already over hood canal. This is good.

 

 

It shows echoes over me and there is deep blue sky overhead... some high clouds to the east now.

[Snow]

New 7 Day Forecast, I agree except I don't think PDX will make it above freezing if it doesn't lose it's east winds.

 

http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kptv/wce_assets/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sitting here thinking how absurd and amazing it is that we're going into another arctic push with little or no snow.

[snow_wizard]

I dont like the trend of the 18z next weekend.

It's actually not that much different. I'm trying to figure out what time the snow would change over to rain. Such a tough one since the easterly outflow winds will be much colder than usual with a situation like this. Thicknesses stay well below 540 and 850s zero or below into early Sunday morning with a good offshore component to the pressure gradient. At face value I would guess still snow east of I-5 as of sunrise on Sunday with a chance it could be freezing rain by then. A strong chance of freezing rain in the outflow areas at some point.

 

All of this having been said the chances of what the models are showing right now verifying verbatim are pretty low. The pattern is just too complex.

[snow_wizard]

Sitting here thinking how absurd and amazing it is that we're going into another arctic push with little or no snow.

Serious bummer alright. This is pretty much a dead ringer for 1932-33.

 

If the scope of the cold is as impressive as I think it will be just the cold will be somewhat satisfying, but I would really like to see some snow.

[Dadio]

Serious bummer alright. This is pretty much a dead ringer for 1932-33.

 

If the scope of the cold is as impressive as I think it will be just the cold will be somewhat satisfying, but I would really like to see some snow.

It always seems to be a bit of a waste to have cold and no snow. I remember seeing pictures and a video of a home made snow machine. Looking forward to the crisp sunny days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's actually not that much different. I'm trying to figure out what time the snow would change over to rain. Such a tough one since the easterly outflow winds will be much colder than usual with a situation like this. Thicknesses stay well below 540 and 850s zero or below into early Sunday morning with a good offshore component to the pressure gradient. At face value I would guess still snow east of I-5 as of sunrise on Sunday with a chance it could be freezing rain by then. A strong chance of freezing rain in the outflow areas at some point.

 

All of this having been said the chances of what the models are showing right now verifying verbatim are pretty low. The pattern is just too complex.

I would not be surprised to see this first push of moisture not being the one that warms us up. I've seen this before, could be a few days after the weekend before we come out.

[TT-SEA]

Serious bummer alright. This is pretty much a dead ringer for 1932-33.

 

If the scope of the cold is as impressive as I think it will be just the cold will be somewhat satisfying, but I would really like to see some snow.

 

 

Just checked... there was TONS of snow at my location from mid-January through early March of 1933.   

 

There was almost 2 feet of snow on the ground when the early February blast arrived.

 

The green lawn outside my window tells me emphatically that the overall pattern is different this year.