April 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Dan the Weatherman]

Is winter ever going to end in this neck of the woods?

[Maxim]

Is winter ever going to end in this neck of the woods?

Lol, what are you talking about?

[Tom]

The latest April run of the JAMSTEC model still suggest a cool Summer forecast for the bread basket of the nation but has warmed quite a bit near the Lakes from it's March run.  Still showing above normal precip for a large portion of the central CONUS.  Looking forward to a nice summer this year.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2015.1apr2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2015.1apr2015.gif

 

 

The model now has it's first ideas towards next Winter (Dec-Feb), it's still showing the ring of warm waters hugging NW NAMER and that tongue of colder waters from East Asia towards NW of Hawaii.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1apr2015.gif

 

I could already see what the model is trying to illustrate.  Flooding NW Canada (similar to the 2013-14 Winter) with very cold air to the east of where the ridge will be building and funneling colder air into the lower 48.  It's not terribly cold for the central CONUS this run, but I'd bet it will turn colder in future runs.  SST's support this along with a central based El Nino (modiki).  If the 1.2 ENSO Region is warm like last year, expect a warmer December 2015, if not, then the pull back in December may not be as robust as it was this past season.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1apr2015.gif

Sept-Nov precip is above normal and continues through the Winter...need to see what the LRC has in store

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2015.1apr2015.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1apr2015.gif

[Tom]

00z Euro/12z GFS/12z GGEM all showing warmth building back in by next Friday with widespread 70's....

[Tom]

12z Euro spreading temps near 70F by next Thu, low/mid 70's by Fri...

[Maxim]

Still waiting for the first 80° day. Last Friday came close, but not quite.

[Geos]

Need to have those high ocean water departures come down a bit and allow the ridge to relax by next winter. That would allow storminess to move further south and hit drought areas - instead of keeping all the moisture from Washington on northward.

 

Here's a CNN story on the exact feature being talked about here.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2015/04/21/blob-pacific-ocean-warm-waters-weather-jennifer-gray.cnn?iid=ob_article_organicsidebar_expansion&iref=obnetwork

 

Hit 27° this morning at UGN. Spent about 6 hours below freezing in total. 

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies showing the ridge building in Week 2-4...

 

[Grizzcoat]

Andrew at The Weather Centre is calling it quits...

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

[Tom]

Andrew at The Weather Centre is calling it quits...

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

I have a ton of respect for this young lad.  I wonder if Scott knows him or if he goes to the same High School as Scott in Buffalo Grove.  Great story and wish him the best of luck in College and his future endeavors!  Now that Andrew has revealed who he is, I'm sure he has inspired our younger generation that have been following his Blog.  Kudos to him on his accomplishments.

[Tom]

Getting closer....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Geos]

That stinks that Andrew is shutting his weather blog down. I can getting too busy with college and everything though. Takes a lot of energy and time to keep a web site running and up-to-date.

 

Already down near frost levels here.  

[Scott26]

I have a ton of respect for this young lad.  I wonder if Scott knows him or if he goes to the same High School as Scott in Buffalo Grove.  Great story and wish him the best of luck in College and his future endeavors!  Now that Andrew has revealed who he is, I'm sure he has inspired our younger generation that have been following his Blog.  Kudos to him on his accomplishments.

I found him on Facebook and he goes to Buffalo Grove High School while I go to Stevenson. I have read his blog so many times I always assumed he was at least a college-level student. His meteorological knowledge is extremely impressive and probably past the point I'm at right now. I'm going to message him on Facebook and see if he maybe wants to go to a Meteorology club meeting at Stevenson(despite him going to BG high school).

[james1976]

I will miss that blog!

[Maxim]

Didn't he used to post here somewhat regularly?

[Tom]

Heard ORD tied the record low of 29F this morning...Saw this post on FB from the NWS in Chicago:

 

Relative humidity values as of 11 am:

Albuquerque, NM: 65% 
Phoenix, AZ: 65% 
Las Vegas, NV: 40% 
El Paso, TX: 34% 
Rockford, IL: 21%
Valparaiso, IN: 21% 
Chicago, IL: 19%.

 

I confirm that it is more humid than normal out here!  Just had a nice intense shower roll on through.  When it rains out here in the deserts, it's almost like a holiday.  Now the sun has broken out and it feels like the wx back home.

[Tom]

This storm developing over the Plains today and rolling through the Midwest tomorrow reminds me of the SB storm.  Similar track and intensity.  If this was during Winter, it would be a major snowstorm.  Some heavy rainfall coming for the Midwest...

[Maxim]

this dry air is getting really old, feels like I'm in Denver.

[Tom]

Just got back in from the pool and took advantage of some sun and had good window to soak up some rays.  Another storm cloud rolling through here.  I miss seeing cumulonimbus clouds develop.  Doesn't happen often around here so its neat to see when it does.

 

Looks like the first 80's east of the Mississippi are likely as we flip the Calendar and head into May.  The April showers are going spring up some May flowers finally and people may start thinking about preparing their gardens soon.  CFSv2/GEFS/ECMWF all in agreement.  Bring it!  Time to fly back home next week.

[BrianJK]

this dry air is getting really old, feels like I'm in Denver.

 

I bet it does Panama Red 

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles hold that ridge strong over near the Lakes Day 10-15.  Red paint bomb over a large area of the central/eastern CONUS.  True summer time air finally will make it's presence.  

[Geos]

27° this morning for a low again. Had some ice on the edges of the pond and plenty of frost to go around. 

Now in the low 40s and raining. 

 

And sleeting...

[WBadgersW]

Currently getting some light snow

[Hawkeye]

We were just supposed to get some nuisance showers this afternoon ahead of the main system late tonight and tomorrow.  Instead, a nice area of showers and storms developed and back-built across east-central Iowa.  I have received almost an inch of rain.  Now, all I need from the main show tomorrow morning is 0.30" to reach 5.00" for the month.  We had 1" of precip over the previous several weeks.

[Maxim]

not too bad 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

[Geos]

0.23" of rain here today. This evening feels more like late February or early March. Just cold and damp outside.

Month is running below normal now.

 

Dipping below normal now...

[Maxim]

0.23" of rain here today. This evening feels more like late February or early March. Just cold and damp outside.

Month is running below normal now.

 

Dipping below normal now...

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-m_1992-2014.gif

That doesn't really mean anything, water tempe are barely below normal, and they should warm up pretty quickly by next week.

[Tom]

Hello Summer...I see you coming...next weekend is looking really nice, esp Sunday (Polish Independence day).

 

[Hawkeye]

I only picked up 0.12" of rain this morning as the main system dried out as it moved north of I-80.  My final April rainfall total will be 4.93".

[Tom]

Talk about a Red Paint Bomb (the only time of year they are enjoyable)...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[Geos]

I sure hope next weekend is warmer! This cold cloudy weather is old now.

 

High of 43° today with a trace of rain. Filtered Sun peaked out for like 10 minutes this afternoon - other than that, gusty East winds and clouds.

[Maxim]

you all ready for some zonal?

[Tom]

The "Super Bowl" part of the LRC already showing up mid nxt week.  Let's see if it could wind up to be a significant rain/severe weather system.

[Tom]

Friday/Saturday may be the only real nice day near the Lakes, models starting to show a lot of rain cooled air in the extended.  Ensembles showing a very wet pattern and this may be the pattern through the summer.  Hard to get heat waves to build on wet grounds.

[james1976]

We need a May thread.

[Tom]

We need a May thread.

Good call...done.

[Maxim]

You can still get heat with wet soils (2010, 2011) it just won't be quite as extreme. Would be more of a humid heat rather than the extreme dry heat we saw in 2012 and the dust bowl years.

[Tom]

You can still get heat with wet soils (2010, 2011) it just won't be quite as extreme. Would be more of a humid heat rather than the extreme dry heat we saw in 2012 and the dust bowl years.

I'm betting on a rain cooled atmosphere May-July, August may be a month when it can get toasty and humid in this region.  Late summer heat can be expected as the jet reaches its weakest point and climatologically speaking, it usually brings the warmest air of the season anyway.

[Hawkeye]

We don't need it to be as wet as last year (blew away the old June rainfall record), but modestly cooler and wetter than average wouldn't be bad at all.  I'm sure my broccoli and beets would like some cool temps.

[Tom]

We don't need it to be as wet as last year (blew away the old June rainfall record), but modestly cooler and wetter than average wouldn't be bad at all.  I'm sure my broccoli and beets would like some cool temps.

I don't mind a wet summer with active storms.  It also beats watering your garden opposed to natural rainfall (if you believe in true organic crops).  BTW, I love beets!