2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread

[Dan the Weatherman]

0.03" fell here in Orange yesterday with the tropical moisture.

[Dan the Weatherman]

4 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Broken on my computer now too. Maybe Jesse cannot downvote.

I cannot react to any comment either and am getting the same error as was stated above. I am using a Desktop PC w/ Windows 11 & Edge.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[Anti Marine Layer]

  Very deep marine layer this morning. 

[Minny_Weather]

Very rare that the marine layer reaches out to here in August, but it did this morning.

[Thunder98]

Currently 68F with a dewpoint of 64F, muggy!

[Thunder98]

High today was 77F, about 7 degrees warmer than forecasted. Dew points were quite high today in the mid 60's, feeling muggy.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Website was down for a while. Reacts still broken 

 

[Thunder98]

Today is the last day that the sun angle is at 70 degrees or higher until the very end of next April in my neck of the woods.

[Anti Marine Layer]

No more drizzle in the forecast this morning. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Low clouds sticking to San Diego coast.

[SpaceRace22]

The last few runs of the GFS have been insistent on putting a dying former category 4 hurricane right near SoCal. Most runs have kept it just offshore or making landfall in northern Baja, but the 00z was a perfect bullseye with it tracking right up the coast and making landfall at LA County. On this run it's even still at tropical storm strength at landfall with 60mph winds.

Pretty decent ensemble support as well for at least a huge surge of remnant tropical moisture into SoCal. I'd say this bears close watching.

[SpaceRace22]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The last few runs of the GFS have been insistent on putting a dying former category 4 hurricane right near SoCal. Most runs have kept it just offshore or making landfall in northern Baja, but the 00z was a perfect bullseye with it tracking right up the coast and making landfall at LA County. On this run it's even still at tropical storm strength at landfall with 60mph winds.

Pretty decent ensemble support as well for at least a huge surge of remnant tropical moisture into SoCal. I'd say this bears close watching.

And it looks like the Canadian agrees too! Soaks the entire state of California and sends a crazy amount of tropical moisture all the way up to Portland.

[Reg]

Keeping a close eye on this.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Ocean is clouded over

[Thunder98]

Warm and muggy today, to become like 2015 again.

[Thunder98]

High today was a muggy 77F.

[SpaceRace22]

The 12z and 18z GFS were back to showing what is likely to be Hurricane Greg curving just offshore of SoCal, but even then we still get a remarkable surge of tropical moisture with lots of instability and PWAT values near 2.5" even on the coast. Ensemble support continues to increase with about 50% of all GFS members showing at least .5" of rain in San Diego.

The Euro operational still shows Greg tracking west and remaining well south of CA, however the ECMWF Ensemble now has a few members picking up on the possibility of it impacting SoCal, which is a change from yesterday which had very little Euro Ensemble support. The Euro is historically less accurate than the GFS with tropical system tracks anyway, so giving a lot more weight to the GFS here regardless.

The exciting part is this is all starting to come within the plausible range now, too. On the GFS, Greg is a raging Category 4 and its associated moisture is beginning to surge into SoCal by Friday evening, which is only 5 days out now. The tropical wave that will create this storm is clearly visible on satellite, pushing west into the Pacific from Central America, and Tropical Storm Greg should form within the next 48 hours. Tonight's 00z runs will be big ones.

Shoutout to the 1 member of the 18z Ensemble that soaks San Diego with 8" of rain:

[Anti Marine Layer]

Things could get interesting but even if they do we'll still have 1/100 the amount of the posts that the PNW thread gets. 

[Thunder98]

The 1st half of the summer was just like 2010, but the 2nd half of the summer is now becoming a lot like 2015 and 1997.

[Thunder98]

And just like that, cold pool of water along the CA coast is almost all gone. Waters along SB Coast is now above avg.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

And just like that, cold pool of water along the CA coast is almost all gone. Waters along SB Coast is now above avg.

Hooray 

[Anti Marine Layer]

School is In session. Let the kids suffer in the heat while the first few weeks of their summer were screwed over by the June Gloom. That's what caring teachers do.

[Dan the Weatherman]

2 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

School is In session. Let the kids suffer in the heat while the first few weeks of their summer were screwed over by the June Gloom. That's what caring teachers do.

I think they should move the start of school back to around the 2nd week of September like it used to be back in the 1990's and before.

[Thunder98]

Currently 75F with a DP of 63F. Dew points have been elevated since the remnants of Eugene on Thursday.

[Thunder98]

High was 77F again today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The future is uncertain. 

[Reg]

On 8/13/2023 at 5:49 PM, SpaceRace22 said:

 

 

Should be very interesting.

[Thunder98]

Lows next week look very warm now due to Hilary.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Last day of 2023 for the sun angle to reach 70 degrees here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice clouds today. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The tropical system has not even developed yet.

[AquariusRadar]

Greg will have to get his running shoes on in order to make SoCal by the 22nd. If he decides to form up and head north. A nice rain would be appreciated..but please no flooding. Enough natural disasters already.

[Thunder98]

High was 76F today

[Anti Marine Layer]

Warm and humid again.

[Thunder98]

What a difference compared to 2 months ago

[SpaceRace22]

Welp the Euro is now fully on board with the GFS and the Canadian about this hurricane making a beeline for SoCal. Every single deterministic run of every model today since the 12z suite has shown a near direct hit, and most of them with the storm making landfall between LA and Pt Conception as a Tropical Storm or even a weak Category 1. Still highly doubtful the storm will maintain that level of wind speed by the time it gets here, but it's looking increasingly likely that most of SoCal could get get an extremely anomalous amount of rain with. Ensembles are significantly more on board as well. My favorite run was the 00z Canadian, which showed 5" of rain for San Diego and OC.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Forecast discussion ain't too excited about it yet

[Gradient Keeper]

38 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Welp the Euro is now fully on board with the GFS and the Canadian about this hurricane making a beeline for SoCal. Every single deterministic run of every model today since the 12z suite has shown a near direct hit, and most of them with the storm making landfall between LA and Pt Conception as a Tropical Storm or even a weak Category 1. Still highly doubtful the storm will maintain that level of wind speed by the time it gets here, but it's looking increasingly likely that most of SoCal could get get an extremely anomalous amount of rain with. Ensembles are significantly more on board as well. My favorite run was the 00z Canadian, which showed 5" of rain for San Diego and OC.

Looks like fun

[Reg]

2:23 AM and suddenly it's raining outside. 0.01" so far, my first measurable precipitation of the season.

[Reg]

Cameras up near Margarita Peak showing the rain showers hitting me right now: