I’ll just stick with the operational and the ensemble mean.

The ECMWF shows this thing moving like a rocket though.

Out of the ensemble members it's the closest to being the same as the operational. The reason for it is the operational is not infallible. Very smart people are the ones who came up with this stuff.

I like the idea of a solid -EPO/cold shot later in December, which might retrograde around the holidays? This upcoming pattern is more of a hybrid STJ/split flow pattern borne out of destructive interference between the niña/base state and MJO/intraseasonal state.

Yikes!!!!