This storm offshore is a stark reminder that despite the relative silence of the last decade, we are still very much vulnerable to powerful winds. It's only a matter of time. And if the law of averages has anything to say, then we're probably due for a big series of storms. My guess is starting next winter with the incoming +ENSO likely and associated STJ activity. Last winter we were in a similar situation and got out unscathed but that luck (bad luck imo!) won't last forever.

Yeah that is an issue.

I can say confidently that it’s not going to accumulate in my location but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some flakes mixed in with rain. Above 1,000 ft or so in the foothills could get sticking snow, maybe a few lucky spots down to 500 ft.

Thanks man. I'm planning on creating my first winter outlook this month. I probably won't show it on here but at least want to get some practice in

Have you seen the LR GEFS. This looks like it wants to go cold in early Dec.. Obviously, it's been correcting more +epo, but ENSO subsurface is Neutral, so an Aleutian low is an interesting development. Holds a -WPO for most of the medium-range/long range, too MJO might want to go through unfavorable phases, but the picture being painted by long range models is not as warm as I thought it would be for early Dec