if this is the start of cycle 2 then I already know my hunch feeling for winter this year may be correct...(not a good hunch)

Yeah, that's a legit concern ofc. Was wondering if all this activity WAS "the pattern" or just the busy part? So, warm and dry, followed by warm and active, followed by cooler and less active. Alright then, lol.

it's not really LR tho, at least for those further west in the Plains.

The northwest flow and relative dryness in the models in the long range looks like we'll be starting cycle 2. The GFS and Euro look alot like early October.

Yeah, I'm not punting this yet. We'll often see a system out in the long range that the models kind of lose for a period of time, before it comes back in some manner. Not always of course.