I'm going to dig into it this weekend and want to see if the models verify early next week. If cycle 2 does indeed verify on Monday, we would be looking at a 56 day cycle.

There’s three and a half months of cold season left. The models are good for about seven days out. Definitely a little early to throw in the towel (or fork or whatever).

if this is the start of cycle 2 then I already know my hunch feeling for winter this year may be correct...(not a good hunch)

Yeah, that's a legit concern ofc. Was wondering if all this activity WAS "the pattern" or just the busy part? So, warm and dry, followed by warm and active, followed by cooler and less active. Alright then, lol.

it's not really LR tho, at least for those further west in the Plains.