I'm wondering if whether or not the MJO subsides when it moves into phase 3 will determine our winter outcome.

Your system is rigged. All of these days happen when the average is 48/38, for it needs to be 5 degrees below average and for it needs to be 2 above. But despite this, 3 days even managed to have highs below the threshold!

It's running now. I thought Weatherbell might have been allowing the GEFS and EPS to run first.

The SA wind event doesn't even peak for another 12-18 hours

I would say more like 39 is the January normal for Seattle. The 30 year average is absurdly high compared to the rest of history.