Today should be the worst of it for my region…Until whatever happens next week happens. 1990 and 2006 seem extremely familiar at the moment.

ALWAYS on trash and recycling day. ALWAYS. uncanny

We want the ridge base to fill to the S similar to how the GEFS is right now. Seems like models like the CMCE and EPS want to develop cutoffs to our SW because of the ridge shape (with maybe a bit of undercutting helping with that).

This is just PRIMED for phantom snow to show on The Swamp's radar coverage for 3 hours without anything hitting the ground! YES!

Still just not seeing much to suggest the blocking necessary to “drop the hammer”. GEFS continues to run a notch or 2 colder than the other ensembles. Unless we see significant improvement in ridging near Alaska I think onshore flow with 850s near -6C for western Washington around Christmas seems like a good bet. Odds of arctic air surging south of the border remains quite low for the next 2 weeks.