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Hurricanes along the West Coast

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#1
happ

Posted 10 May 2017 - 09:49 AM

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NOAA issued this map of hurricane tracks in North America. Dramatic differences between the warm Atlantic versus cool Pacific oceans. It is interesting that some tropical cyclones have managed to reach the Southwest on rare occasions. 

 

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#2
Scott

Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:02 AM

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Although wiki isn't always the best source, this page is good and outlines the known hurricanes to hit Arizona:

 

https://en.wikipedia...zona_hurricanes

 

By Arizona standards, they have produced some impressive precip amounts.  


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#3
happ

Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:07 AM

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Although wiki isn't always the best source, this page is good and outlines the known hurricanes to hit Arizona:

 

https://en.wikipedia...zona_hurricanes

 

By Arizona standards, they have produced some impressive precip amounts.  

 

That is a pretty impressive list.

 

It seems strange that Atlantic hurricanes can reach well into the Labrador Sea/ Artic yet never get very far north along the West Coast.



#4
Phil

Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:17 AM

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It seems strange that Atlantic hurricanes can reach well into the Labrador Sea/ Artic yet never get very far north along the West Coast.


Streamflow, SSTs, topography, and the Coriolis force are the reasons for that.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#5
Scott

Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:22 AM

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It seems strange that Atlantic hurricanes can reach well into the Labrador Sea/ Artic yet never get very far north along the West Coast.

 

 

In addition to colder waters along the (US) West Coast, at the latitudes which the hurricanes form (southern Mexico), most of the hurricanes close to the West Coast move away from the coast rather than towards it.

 

Atlantic hurricanes can form off the coast of Africa and gain strength as they move across the Atlantic before making landfall on the East Coast of the USA.  A hurricane off the West Coast of Mexico will already be moving away from West Coast when it forms.

 

Of course the Pacific (by far) generates more tropical storms than the Atlantic, but the US West Coast is protected by geography and other reasons that Phil mentions.


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#6
happ

Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:27 AM

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Streamflow, SSTs, topography, and the Coriolis force are the reasons for that.

 

Eastern Pacific hurricanes are pushed west of Mexico but then get caught in the westerlies as they approach California missing us altogether for the most part :(


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#7
TT-SEA

Posted 10 May 2017 - 12:02 PM

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Eastern Pacific hurricanes are pushed west of Mexico but then get caught in the westerlies as they approach California missing us altogether for the most part :(

 

Ireland appears to get more hurricane action than CA.    ;)


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#8
Phil

Posted 10 May 2017 - 12:17 PM

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Speaking of which, we're way overdue for a major hurricane impact here. Sediment proxies suggest the DC area averaged approximately one major (cat3/cat4) hurricane every 200 years from 4400BP to 1500CE. Back in the 1500s and 1600s, at least four hurricanes of cat3 or cat4 strength impacted the DC/MD area directly, with conditions likely more intense than those of the 1930s Long Island express hurricane.

There have been zero major hurricane impacts here since the 1600s, though several cat1/cat2 impacts occurred in the 1700s/1800s. The most recent hurricane impact was Hazel in 1954 (cat1), and since then not even a single hurricane impact has occurred.

So either our hurricane climatology has abruptly changed due to some non-linear response to late-Holocene orbital forcing, or this is a statistical anomaly.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#9
happ

Posted 10 May 2017 - 01:31 PM

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Ireland appears to get more hurricane action than CA.    ;)

 

Greenland gets more :lol:


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#10
happ

Posted 10 May 2017 - 01:33 PM

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Speaking of which, we're way overdue for a major hurricane impact here. Sediment proxies suggest the DC area averaged approximately one major (cat3/cat4) hurricane every 200 years from 4400BP to 1500CE. Back in the 1500s and 1600s, at least four hurricanes of cat3 or cat4 strength impacted the DC/MD area directly, with conditions likely more intense than those of the 1930s Long Island express hurricane.

There have been zero major hurricane impacts here since the 1600s, though several cat1/cat2 impacts occurred in the 1700s/1800s. The most recent hurricane impact was Hazel in 1954 (cat1), and since then not even a single hurricane impact has occurred.

So either our hurricane climatology has abruptly changed due to some non-linear response to late-Holocene orbital forcing, or this is a statistical anomaly.

 

You get plenty of remnant moisture from tropical systems



#11
wx_statman

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:26 PM

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Only known Cat 1 impact in California was in 1858...

 

https://en.wikipedia...Diego_hurricane


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#12
BLI snowman

Posted 10 May 2017 - 08:49 PM

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Speaking of which, we're way overdue for a major hurricane impact here. Sediment proxies suggest the DC area averaged approximately one major (cat3/cat4) hurricane every 200 years from 4400BP to 1500CE. Back in the 1500s and 1600s, at least four hurricanes of cat3 or cat4 strength impacted the DC/MD area directly, with conditions likely more intense than those of the 1930s Long Island express hurricane.

There have been zero major hurricane impacts here since the 1600s, though several cat1/cat2 impacts occurred in the 1700s/1800s. The most recent hurricane impact was Hazel in 1954 (cat1), and since then not even a single hurricane impact has occurred.

So either our hurricane climatology has abruptly changed due to some non-linear response to late-Holocene orbital forcing, or this is a statistical anomaly.


We're way overdue for a major hurricane impact anywhere in the U.S. Going on 12 years now.
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#13
Phil

Posted 10 May 2017 - 09:34 PM

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We're way overdue for a major hurricane impact anywhere in the U.S. Going on 12 years now.


Yeah, this quiet streak has been record-breaking in length.

It has to end at some point.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#14
happ

Posted 11 May 2017 - 10:32 AM

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Only known Cat 1 impact in California was in 1858...

 

https://en.wikipedia...Diego_hurricane

 

http://www.wrh.noaa....therhistory.pdf

 

Abrupt down grading occurs when hitting that cold Humboldt current. Coastal buoys north of San Francisco are reporting strong upwelling w/ coldest readings of the year right now [upper 40's]. The summer storms during 2015 were characterized by heavy rainfall w/o high wind. I am surprised by the strength of the Arizona storms considering terrain.



#15
wx_statman

Posted 11 May 2017 - 02:48 PM

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http://www.wrh.noaa....therhistory.pdf

 

Abrupt down grading occurs when hitting that cold Humboldt current. Coastal buoys north of San Francisco are reporting strong upwelling w/ coldest readings of the year right now [upper 40's]. The summer storms during 2015 were characterized by heavy rainfall w/o high wind. I am surprised by the strength of the Arizona storms considering terrain.

 

Thanks for that link. Lots of interesting information there.



#16
Front Ranger

Posted 11 May 2017 - 05:49 PM

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We're way overdue for a major hurricane impact anywhere in the U.S. Going on 12 years now.

 

Global warming was making things worse right up until 2005.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#17
happ

Posted 11 May 2017 - 09:38 PM

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Well-timed, NWS_SD just posted this

 

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#18
BLI snowman

Posted 11 May 2017 - 10:41 PM

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Global warming was making things worse right up until 2005.

 

An Inconvenient Truth premiered the next spring. Hurricanes said no way after that.



#19
Front Ranger

Posted 12 May 2017 - 06:32 AM

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An Inconvenient Truth premiered the next spring. Hurricanes said no way after that.


I thought it came out in 2004?

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#20
Jesse

Posted 12 May 2017 - 08:10 AM

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I thought it came out in 2004?


2006.

http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0497116/

Took me maybe 10 seconds to look that up.
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#21
Phil

Posted 12 May 2017 - 10:42 AM

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I thought it came out in 2004?


"The Day After Tomorrow" came out in 2004. "An Inconvenient Truth" came out in 2006.

They're similar in theme, but very different in context. "The Day After Tomorrow" was clearly fictional, while Al Gore's movie was structured as non-fictional, hence the mockery.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#22
Front Ranger

Posted 14 May 2017 - 06:28 PM

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2006.

http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0497116/

Took me maybe 10 seconds to look that up.


Heh, clearly I was feeling exceptionally lazy.

It's funny, like everyone else I'm constantly googling stuff, but I've learned that in every day conversation (in person) you don't want to always be that guy looking up every answer. Sometimes people just want to talk about something without reading the wiki article on it.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#23
Front Ranger

Posted 14 May 2017 - 06:32 PM

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"The Day After Tomorrow" came out in 2004. "An Inconvenient Truth" came out in 2006.

They're similar in theme, but very different in context. "The Day After Tomorrow" was clearly fictional, while Al Gore's movie was structured as non-fictional, hence the mockery.


A banner couple years for sensationalized climate change movies. I've never seen "An Inconvenient Truth", but it would probably be fascinating, especially 10+ years later.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#24
Phil

Posted 14 May 2017 - 06:59 PM

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I've never seen "An Inconvenient Truth", but it would probably be fascinating, especially 10+ years later.


It's mostly a compilation of failed predictions, at this point.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph