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Tropical Season 2019

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#1
Andie

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:19 PM

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Late May kicked off the season with my name sake.

Subtropical Storm Andrea blew in from the Atlantic and maneuvered toward the Yucatán.
Her legacy will be a good deal of rain moving up from the south to affect Texas and Oklahoma.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#2
Andie

Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:39 PM

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The storm season is getting underway and the Gulf is certainly warm enough to support a hurricane.
While this storm will likely remain a TS, we're on our way.
___________________

A Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Will Likely Form in the Gulf of Mexico; Here's What We Know

https://weather.com/...southeast-coast

At a Glance
A broad area of low pressure has emerged over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
This is an area where July tropical storms have formed in the past.
A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next couple of days.
The future track and intensity of this potential tropical system remain a bit uncertain.
Heavy rain leading to flash flooding is a threat along the northern Gulf Coast, dependent on the exact track.


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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#3
Andie

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:00 PM

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TS Barry/Hurricane Barry - They can't pump their way out of this one.

 

Louisiana is about to get flooded again.  All flood provisions are being tested and levies may fail. 

They expect up to 20" of rain.

_____________________________________

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Tropical Storm Barry formed off the coast of Louisiana on Thursday and threatened to blow ashore as a hurricane with relatively weak winds but torrential rains that could test the flood-control improvements made in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina 14 years ago.

Forecasters said the first hurricane of the Atlantic season could hit the state’s swampy southern tip Friday night or early Saturday, with potentially ruinous downpours that could go on for hours as the storm passes through the metropolitan area of nearly 1.3 million people and pushes inland.

Plaquemines Parish, at Louisiana’s low-lying southeastern tip, ordered the mandatory evacuation of as many as 10,000 people, and communities began handing out sandbags. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared an emergency and said National Guard troops and high-water vehicles will be positioned all over the state.

 

“The entire coast of Louisiana is at play in this storm,” he warned.

On Wednesday, with the gathering storm still out over the Gulf of Mexico, it dumped as much as 8 inches (20 centimeters) on metro New Orleans in just three hours. The deluge triggered flash flooding in the city’s streets and raised fears about the even heavier rains on the way.

 

National Weather Service meteorologist Benjamin Schott said the big concern is water, not wind: “Rainfall and flooding is going to be the No. 1 threat with this storm.”

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said that the pumping system that drains the city’s streets is working as designed but that the slow-moving storm could dump water faster than the pumps can move it.

 

“We cannot pump our way out of the water levels ... that are expected to hit the city of New Orleans,” she warned.


Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#4
Andie

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:05 PM

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Barry threatens the new levy in terms of height.  They feel secure in the strength of the levy system, but recent Midwest flooding has complicated matter a great deal.

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#5
Andie

Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:00 PM

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The storm hasn't really dealt its heavy blow and the levy is almost at its max.

17' + and it will overflow into the city.  

 

Stream Name: Mississippi River
Gage Zero: 0 Ft. GAGE

Flood Stage: 17 Ft.
Record High Stage: 21.27 Ft.

 

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I'll be out of town this weekend, so I hope someone will monitor this. Otherwise, I'll report when I get back.


Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#6
Andie

Posted 12 July 2019 - 02:05 PM

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Barry will go Cat 1 as the low lying peninsula of Louisiana prepares for major flooding.
The flooding from the Mississippi is still exiting the continent as Barry enters NOLA.
Officials has stated that they can not pump their way out of this despite the fact that it is only a Cat 1 hurricane. All of the state will see excessively heavy rain and flooding.

Barry will move northward and the remnants will reach Illinois and Indiana.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#7
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 17 July 2019 - 01:22 AM

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In the old days Barry would have been considered a "Himicane." A term used for atypical, tropical/subtropical Gulf storms. Hurricanes were only given female names. Oh, the good ol days...

ITCZ looks stable and low, but it will most likely change over next 30 days. Hurricanes are nature's heat release valves for the tropics. There is always a hurricane in the Atlantic on labor day.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#8
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:19 AM

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Looks like an old frontal boundary will settle off the East Coast and meander into the Gulf next week. Old frontal boundaries can make good Hurricanes. Something to watch.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#9
Phil

Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:32 AM

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August 10th to 20th should see 1-2 storms develop across the Atlantic MDR..I think one will threaten the US during the third week of the month.

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#10
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 21 July 2019 - 05:13 AM

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Interesting flare up in the Bahamas. Loop looks 'almost' closed off. Cirrus outflow doesn't show a lot of hostile shear. Something to watch today....

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#11
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 22 July 2019 - 04:26 AM

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Our Bahma wave was a rocketship yesterday. I'm thinking 25kts/hr western movement. Should slow today as it moves out of the screaming easterlies and feels approaching convergence.

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#12
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 22 July 2019 - 09:05 AM

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SW wind now on the big island. Satellite loop shows week closed off circulation. It is by definition now a tropical depression. Something to watch.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#13
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 22 July 2019 - 02:10 PM

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TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight followed by
a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should
remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day
or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the
depression is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#14
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 July 2019 - 12:57 AM

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TD3 has decreased forward motion and looks to be moving NNW at about 10mph. Forecast to remain offshore of Florida then off Carolina outer banks 36hrs. It will be fascinating to watch the interaction with potent frontal boundary during forecast period.

A weakness will remain off the SE coast for next 7-10 days. Secondary development is possible.

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#15
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 July 2019 - 06:57 AM

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Midmorning satellite data shows TD3 is holding its on. Convection mainly NW to SE of the center. Developing feeder band S and slightly SW of the center. Unimpeded cirrus outflow.

Max sustained winds 35 mph with gust to 55 mph NE of the center in squalls likely.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#16
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 July 2019 - 10:51 AM

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TD3 has elongated. That is the first stage of redevelopment. Will continue to monitor.


000
WTNT33 KNHC 231458
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 80.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Three were located near
latitude 29.0 North, longitude 80.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnants are expected to continue producing gusty winds through
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible
across the northwest Bahamas today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#17
Phil

Posted 23 July 2019 - 11:15 AM

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I don’t think anything will come of this one. But the wake of the CCKW passage should deliver the first legitimate burst of Atlantic tropical activity of the season as it crosses Africa/E-ATL/W-IO and those waves subsequently cross the Atlantic in the newly moistened profile more readily favorable for warm-rain dynamics.

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#18
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 July 2019 - 11:47 AM

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I don’t think anything will come of this one. But the wake of the CCKW passage should deliver the first legitimate burst of Atlantic tropical activity of the season as it crosses Africa/E-ATL/W-IO and those waves subsequently cross the Atlantic in the newly moistened profile more readily favorable for warm-rain dynamics.

Good to hear from you Phil. We will see. I am thinking secondary development. A tip of the hat to my fellow sailors who have seen the purple seas and blowing foam...
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#19
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:39 AM

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Yesterday a lot of people noticed the cyclonic spin south of Puerto Rico. The best thing that could happen to this wave happened last night. A total dissipation of mid level circulation. Convection is now concentrated NE of old center moving NW of the islands. Reginiration is possible. Something to watch.

 

Strong wave moved of the African coast yesterday. A little early for Cape Verde, but good sign.

 

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#20
Andie

Posted 01 August 2019 - 04:24 PM

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I'm anxiously awaiting the first tropical storm to move north from the Yucatán..
This is usually what breaks our August heat and brings us milder temps.

We've had a short summer, but we became spoiled to cooler temps and lower humidity.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#21
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 August 2019 - 01:37 PM

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I like seeing the hurricanes all shunted well off the coast or sheared to death before they get anywhere near me. They usually are harbingers for a snowless warm winter when they get too close in.

#22
Andie

Posted 05 August 2019 - 06:11 AM

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I understand. If we are fortunate, we'll get that early northerner in September and get some refreshing air.
The heavy Gulf air this summer has been really oppressing.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#23
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 August 2019 - 11:56 AM

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Dorian looks like a potential Florida , Gulf coast landfall. I didn't fall for the TD 20 miles east of Miami, this time.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#24
Phil

Posted 28 August 2019 - 06:41 AM

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August 10th to 20th should see 1-2 storms develop across the Atlantic MDR..I think one will threaten the US during the third week of the month.


Bust. That previous CCKW passage didn’t pull it off but Dorian is worth watching. I think it’s more of an east coast threat than a gulf coast threat. My hunch is a GA/SC landfall but I’m already 0 for 1, so who knows.

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#25
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 August 2019 - 05:35 PM

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The center of Dorian passed north of Puerto Rico, which is good for them.
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#26
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 August 2019 - 11:45 PM

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Well, if I were going to guess there'd be a Cat 4 out there after I opened my fat mouth, I'd have taken my words back. That one looks pretty rough. May get retired when it's over.

Chantal was just a windy storm, but Dorian is a compact little monster.

#27
Andie

Posted 30 August 2019 - 04:20 AM

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Dorian is taking a deep breath over 87* waters and she'll likely hit Cat 4 before landfall. The ugly part continues as steering winds may send the storm along the western Florida coast. The entire state will be impacted and we'll see how much it creeps along the east coast. Probably a lot of water to come after it drops to a TS.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#28
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 August 2019 - 01:14 PM

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It will just be a big source for more climate change propaganda. I'll bet they care more about getting votes for their climate change agendas than they do about injuries and lost lives.

#29
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 August 2019 - 05:36 PM

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Hurricane is causing more people to get gas in Florida, which will enhance the climate change. It's a vicious cycle.

#30
Phil

Posted 04 September 2019 - 08:14 PM

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Bust. That previous CCKW passage didn’t pull it off but Dorian is worth watching. I think it’s more of an east coast threat than a gulf coast threat. My hunch is a GA/SC landfall but I’m already 0 for 1, so who knows.


Not a bad call for 8/28 (still looks like a Carolina scraper or landfall). Though I guess if “landfall” is what we’re talking about, that was in the Bahamas first. And boy did they take a nasty punch.
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#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 September 2019 - 08:11 AM

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Not a bad call for 8/28 (still looks like a Carolina scraper or landfall). Though I guess if “landfall” is what we’re talking about, that was in the Bahamas first. And boy did they take a nasty punch.


Yeah, pretty much scraped them off the map. Horrible stuff.