March 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS has -3 850mb temps and 528 thickness early Wednesday morning for my location. That is at least cold enough for some flakes in the air. 

 

 

How thrilling!!        

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How thrilling!!        

 

After what we've gone through this winter its something of a consolation if we can get some snow in April. I had 2" of snow on April 4, 2012 and of course heavy snow fell up here on April 18-20, 2008, so it can happen in April up here. 

[TT-SEA]

After what we've gone through this winter its something of a consolation if we can get some snow in April. I had 2" of snow on April 4, 2012 and of course heavy snow fell up here on April 18-20, 2008, so it can happen in April up here. 

 

 

Yes... its a consolation after such a terrible winter of pleasant weather to have unpleasant weather in spring.   Makes perfect sense!    

 

Anyways... thought you were more in the nice weather camp now?   Welcome to the dark side... also known as adulthood with kids and a house.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes... its a consolation after such a terrible winter of pleasant weather to have unpleasant weather in spring.   Makes perfect sense!    

 

Anyways... thought you were more in the nice weather camp now?   Welcome to the dark side... also known as adulthood with kids and a house.  

 

Yeah.... I know. I've really been enjoying this nice weather.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah.... I know. I've really been enjoying this nice weather.  

 

We'll probably go into multiple year Ninas with epic rains as soon as my kids get old enough to want to play outside all the time. lol

[Jesse]

Yeah.... I know. I've really been enjoying this nice weather.

You're all growed up.

[Jesse]

We'll probably go into multiple year Ninas with epic rains as soon as my kids get old enough to want to play outside all the time. lol

You know you would love a multi-year Nina.

[Deweydog]

The stormy pattern for the last 10 days did nothing. I doubt it will change much.

Change is coming!

[Phil]

Final Warming event now underway in the polar stratosphere..this will mark the seasonal destruction of the PV and the subsequent transition to the summer circulation up there. Expect major changes to the subtropical wave train & NH pattern about 15-20 days down the road..

 

Ridging shifting into the east during mid-April?

[TT-SEA]

This latest warm spell has brought out all the trees.

[TT-SEA]

This latest warm spell has brought out all the trees.

[TT-SEA]

Phone posted message twice and now won't let me delete one of them

.. sorry.

[Deweydog]

This latest warm spell has brought out all the trees.

 

How thrilling!! 

[TT-SEA]

How thrilling!! 

Sort of nice.

[Jesse]

First warm pre-frontal type day of the warm season out there. A balmy 72 with cumulus building over the mountains currently.

 

The cool rain later this evening will feel nice.

[Jesse]

Final Warming event now underway in the polar stratosphere..this will mark the seasonal destruction of the PV and the subsequent transition to the summer circulation up there. Expect major changes to the subtropical wave train & NH pattern about 15-20 days down the road..

 

Ridging shifting into the east during mid-April?

Sounds like this could shift a troughier pattern to the west for a little while?

 

The models definitely support this for next week. Could be the most longwave troughing we've seen out west for months.

[epiceast]

Yes... its a consolation after such a terrible winter of pleasant weather to have unpleasant weather in spring.   Makes perfect sense!    

 

Anyways... thought you were more in the nice weather camp now?   Welcome to the dark side... also known as adulthood with kids and a house.  

Why don't you let the man enjoy his future snowfall after he had none while being used to a lot(compared to most of us).

[Abbotsford_wx]

It's 66F with filtered sunshine.

[BLI snowman]

Sort of nice.

 

It's called seasons.

 

I also hope it rains all April in North Bend and snows at Andrew's house.

[Jesse]

Also worth noting that February had a 46.98 average at BLI, and through today March has a 47.10 average. Virtually no change there, so it kind of just feels like a continuation of the weather we've been having.

We have definitely arrived at our warm anomalies the past several months about the blandest way possible.

 

Very few notable warm events to speak of. Just consistent mildness.

[Jesse]

I keep waiting for the models to back way off on the troughy pattern for next week but they haven't blinked yet.

[TT-SEA]

It's called seasons.

 

I also hope it rains all April in North Bend and snows at Andrew's house.

OK.

 

Earliest I have ever seen such a canopy of green... really changed in the last 2 days from Seattle to here with the warm weather. Looks nice.

[BLI snowman]

We have definitely arrived at our warm anomalies the past several months about the blandest way possible.

 

Very few notable warm events to speak of. Just consistent mildness.

 

It's kind of felt like spring for most of the past six months honestly. Lots of 50s and 60s, not much else. 

[TT-SEA]

Very odd... max hourly reading at SEA was 65 but the high came in at 71.

[Deweydog]

I keep waiting for the models to back way off on the troughy pattern for next week but they haven't blinked yet.

It's spring.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like this could shift a troughier pattern to the west for a little while?

 

The models definitely support this for next week. Could be the most longwave troughing we've seen out west for months.

 

Late Feb/early Mar did have a decent period of longwave troughing for the West. This upcoming period is looking like it might be a bit further west, meaning wetter for you guys in the PNW, and perhaps more sustained cool temps.

[Front Ranger]

Very odd... max hourly reading at SEA was 65 but the high came in at 71.

 

Tying the record from 1994.

 

Meanwhile, OLM with a high of 67. Used to be fairly rare that SEA would have warmer highs than OLM on dry days...now it happens more often than not.

[Jesse]

It's spring.

Change may be finally coming. Better a month late than never!

[Jesse]

Tying the record from 1994.

 

Meanwhile, OLM with a high of 67. Used to be fairly rare that SEA would have warmer highs than OLM on dry days...now it happens more often than not.

It's a conspiracy maaaaan.

[TT-SEA]

How are the next 10 days so different than the 3/14-3/25 period? That was troughy and stormy with some pass level snow.

[Front Ranger]

It's a conspiracy maaaaan.

 

It's perfectly explainable, unlike most conspiracies.

 

Same goes for rising global temps.

[Phil]

Sounds like this could shift a troughier pattern to the west for a little while?

 

The models definitely support this for next week. Could be the most longwave troughing we've seen out west for months.

Yes, the wave train will probably shorten/elapse enough that trough will pull back into the West by early or mid April, imo..

[Jesse]

Yes, the wave train will probably shorten/elapse enough that trough will pull back into the West by early or mid April, imo..

 

And then sit over us all summer, fall and the coming winter, right?

[Front Ranger]

Yes, the wave train will probably shorten/elapse enough that trough will pull back into the West by early or mid April, imo..

 

So you agree with the models then?

[GHweatherChris]

So you agree with the models then?

I was just gonna ask the same thing, the models have been showing this for a bit now.

[Deweydog]

Change may be finally coming. Better a month late than never!

It was inevitable.

[Deweydog]

Tying the record from 1994.

 

Meanwhile, OLM with a high of 67. Used to be fairly rare that SEA would have warmer highs than OLM on dry days...now it happens more often than not.

Dude, you gotta know when to say when. Today was meteorological. Lots of incongruity with regard to highs due to several moving parts. Posts like this are what give you a little reek.

[Jesse]

It was inevitable.

 

It was an über-ballsy call.

[Deweydog]

It was an über-ballsy call.

Didn't seem to resonate with you, ye of prolapsicating goodness. Record warmth until Clinton takes office!!!

[Jesse]

Didn't seem to resonate with you, ye of prolapsicating goodness. Record warmth until Clinton takes office!!!

 

This could still be a short term shift. Once we end a month that isn't in the top warm category then we'll talk about change.

 

Things were looking pretty sexy for March four weeks ago! PDX is now a couple days away from surpassing 1992...