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2 years ago today

Hope y'all are doing well. Still a road to recovery for me.

Pretty amazing to see the rapid collapse of the Nino.

I’ve absolutely loved it every time I’ve visited. There’s a vibe I can’t quite put my finger on, but it’s deeper than just the conifers and distant terrain. I love it. I haven’t spent any substantial amount of time there, so I can’t say how I’d feel after a year, but even if it’s not the best long term climate for me, I’ll wager that I would enjoy it for a time, at least. I’d be fascinated to learn/experience all the microclimates, mesoscale quirks, and different types of weather that I don’t get to experience here. I like learning, and I like trying new things. For instance, most windstorms here are sunny or have a broken cloud deck. I’d love to experience a windstorm with dark clouds and precip like you get in the PNW, and I’d also be interested to hear how it sounds through the trees there (I assume the acoustics from a softwood forest are very different from a hardwood forest).

Where in the world am I now?

Tangentially related is the beauty of experiencing a windstorm caused by being on the lee of a mountain. I’ve experienced that just a few times, once because of the Olympics in October of 2010 which brought an all day wind event for Bellevue to Everett. Then a handful of Mt Rainier events in Bonney Lake and Buckley. The best cyclonic storms seem to have a window of five or six hours before it moves on, but those mountain events can be a solid 24 hours of turbidity fun.

Not typical, but FL has seen some legitimate outbreaks in the past. February 1998 was pretty ugly in the Orlando area. February 2007 as well. Ninos enhance the southern jet obviously so there's a big correlation there.

Sure, but tornado dynamics are actually a little more favorable the further north you go in FL. Given the better jet support and shear/helicity that exists in that corridor. Jacksonville is basically GA.

This is quite a shot. Total eclipse over Progressive Field in Cleveland. How cool to take in the eclipse and then a baseball game.

Yeah, finally but while I was off the meds I was in rough shape.

I'm starting to agree with this more and more as I grow older. Snow is where the "money is at." Though two 22/11 type days and a week below freezing is the most wintry weather we would have seen in Seattle since December 1990. And I'd gladly take that, snow or not. Not to burst your bubble but in actuality the tightest pressure gradients and the mixing required to get those really strong gusts down to the surface both arrive after the front, in the postfrontal convective environment. Often where it's sunny and clear, albeit with bands of showers and thunderstorms. There are tight gradients that can make things a bit gusty ahead of the front as it approaches, but the stable air prevents much more than that. This actually means most of our windstorms, at least as I've observed here in the Puget Sound, come on nearly instantly. Given the tame nature of our climate it's a somewhat unsettling reminder of the vast amounts of thermal energy present in the Pacific, and how even our most boring weather is made possible by forces beyond our comprehension. Concentrate that energy release over a small area, and the sky is the limit, no pun intended. As insane as the Columbus Day storm was, it's even more insane to me that it arrived without warning, and likely almost instantly, from calm to over 100mph in minutes. Even hurricanes "ramp up" over the course of hours. That storm claimed lives just from the wind damage alone, especially out on the coast. The other day we had sheets of heavy drizzle with wind. It's a once or twice a year thing, and while it looks really cool, almost like a blizzard, once you step outside you quickly realize it's more of a vibes type of event. Getting caught out in that is like turning your hose onto mist mode and letting it rip from three feet in front of your face. You can see the GOA heights increasing as it draws closer. -PNA is the theme this Spring. (Hope you enjoyed the Phil themed post. Was not intentional lol)

Take a break man.

I recommend adding a new thread concerning THIS

That's a bummer that some on this forum would resort to mocking. I'm inclined to value the opinion of a leading expert in PNW wildfire meteorology. I recommend watching the first half of the video to get the answer. He goes into the various arguments in favor vs. against an active wildfire season. A nuanced take. He seems to have looked at seasonal predictions that show average to above-average precipitation in June and July to counter the lack of snowpack and warm spring (due to the trend toward -ENSO). If those forecasts fail, that would change his outlook, although many on this forum seem to agree that this could be a cooler and wetter summer than some of our recent ones. He's expecting a warm and dry May. However, he notes that the dry conditions in spring will likely reduce the risk of grass fires this year, although the dry fuel from recent wet springs means that the grass fire risk is still somewhat elevated. He also expresses confidence in their improved ability to put out fire starts before they spread -- so the forecast does include a bit of faith in the firefighting operations that he is partially responsible for.

Tornadoes in FL really aren't that rare.

WA DNR lead meteorologist predicts an average fire season in Washington: https://tvw.org/video/the-impact-2024-wildfire-outlook-dnr-lead-meteorologist-2024041114/?eventID=2024041114

i think you mean RIH

I am stealing a pic our old friend Andy in Woodinville just posted now on FB because I really like it. I can tell this pic was taken from the northwestern corner of Lake Sammamish in Redmond looking towards the SSE and zoomed in on Rainier.

I would guess heavy drizzle is happening 90-95% of the time here. We had a 2-hour break this morning but it will probably go now until early next week without stopping.

It's interesting because the pattern next week is one way to have spectacular weather with troughing overhead. The GFS was troughy all of next week and most days were sunny and in the 60s. That is my favorite kind of April weather. Too much heat in April is usually offset during the summer months.

Nice evening!

Damn. I'll take your six consecutive days below freezing w/ 1-4" of snowcover and two lows of 11F. If that's so disappointing for you. Let's just face it man. Your soul would shrivel up and die if you lived out here for even half a decade.

63F here for our first 60F of the spring. Gonna snow again by Saturday so going to enjoy it while it last.

You are correct, but during the spring months there is often low level stability near the Atlantic Coast due to relatively cooler waters. Tornado and overall severe climo attenuates substantially within 30-40 miles of the Atlantic Coast in F/M/A (though in the summer/autumn the equation changes substantially, of course). There are cases where that added differential heating can favor tornado formation, but for stronger tornadoes that is an inhibiting factor as they’re fueled by airmass and convective dynamics requiring significant boundary layer instability. It’s complicated/non-linear and not fully understood, but the evidence is pretty clear IMO.

Don’t know how you can predict that now. Lightning starts, offshore events in the fall, marine influence or lack thereof. All impossible to predict. Not to mention we’re a few weeks into spring. Not saying it will necessarily be a disaster, but this is even harder than predicting winter snowpack in early October.

They upgraded the wind category, and this area also includes me but barely..

My first total eclipse was an awesome and enjoyable experience! Took off for southern IL just after 2:00a.m. and arrived at our destination (my cousin's farm near Carbondale) in only around 5.5 hrs. as traffic was a non-issue and had good roads. And the weather was perfect with only a few thin cirrus at times with a high temp around 80⁰! Had over 100 people there (mostly from my community) to watch it and enjoyed 2 hearty big meals (brunch and supper) plus snacks in-between! Had several spotting scopes on tripods for people to use, and later mounted a camera on one during the eclipse. We also did some experiments and someone gave a presentation about eclipses, etc. My nephew flew his drone before and during the eclipse, which mostly flew itself so he could enjoy the sights. We also had a thermometer recording the temp which dropped 12⁰ f in the shade and still more in the sun, if I remember correctly. One thing I forgot was sunscreen, so I got burned a little even if I tried staying in the shade at times. We left for home around 6:30p.m. hoping traffic would clear out some. Had one little stretch of heavy, slow traffic, but mostly good travelling most of the way, arriving back in around 6 hrs. Trees were much greener in s. IL. Oh, I forgot to mention my brother down there took us on a ride to his place nearby with a farm tractor and trailer afterwards. Had 60+ people on the flatbed trailer!

It is, but small and low profile enough it doesn't really attract the Tims. Definitely less busy than similar towns closer to Denver.

Water falling from the sky currently

Eh. I like Rot In Pieces better.

Also had snow falling from the sky one year ago today, but had snow on the ground two years ago today!

BC snowpack data from April 1st was released. Provincial average is just 63% of normal, which is the lowest snowpack in history for the province

This is Phil's "nightmare fuel" by the way.

We ended up in a perfect spot at a winery southwest of St. Genevieve, MO… got a completely clear view of totality. What an amazing celestial event and well worth the drive and the hours stuck in traffic.

Great eclipse, got to see 4 minutes and 13 seconds of totality under clear skies in Cherokee village Arkansas. Didn't get any pics because after watching and recording a few already in your lifetime, you realize that it's better to just enjoy the moment and to not waste the limited time using your camera, because the camera does absolutely no justice for the eclipse. Better to just live in the amazing moment. Hope it also worked out great for everybody on here.

I ended up in a church parking lot on the outskirts of Ellettsville, IN. 4 minutes and 3 seconds of totality and clouds were a complete non-issue. It's unfortunate that the time goes by fast. May add more later, but one thing I observed this time that did not occur in 2017 was swarming bees. They were going nuts in the lead-up to totality.

12Z GEM vs new 00Z run one week out.

Interesting, that’s kind of similar to here, then (w/rt the “instant” start time and lack of precip). Are the winds more sustained out there or are they more gusty? Out this way the big league windstorms are driven by mountain waves and downsloping under post-frontal CAA/pressure rises. So winds usually manifest as strong, pulsing gusts that come in sets of 2-3 (except in exceptional events, which can rip nonstop, but that is uncommon).

Yep!! Winds were hardcore when I took these moon lit pictures, the power had just gone out…And remained out for 4 days. I believe this was from an insane westerly surge event.

My experience is that *most* of the time, the strongest winds of a classic "PNW" windstorm hit with no rain, and typically a mid to high broken cloud deck. It's when we have a strong front pass through that we get the sideways rain and dark clouds, but that is usually pretty brief, maybe an hour tops.

Back in our club soccer days we were at a tournament in Burlington. One of the mornings started with a wind driven heavy drizzle that soaked everyone. Must be the long fetch down the strait there that makes it a thing.

This is random but I’d also like to experience this so called “heavy drizzle” that you guys talk about. I can’t wrap my mind around what the heck that even is.

It’s good to see you posting again Bryan. Were you able to get your ?

Seems like we are going to have weak troughing remaining in place next week as ridge builds to the north... 18Z GFS showing it as well. But its really a nice pattern overall with lots of sun and pleasant temps if it works out this way. A west coast warm finger situation for many days in a row.

The NPAC HC sector is actually very suppressed (and fast) thus far, but at least some of that is the residual niño component. 2021 and 2019 were easy calls because the tropical base state was stagnant in both cases. This year will (in all likelihood) feature a change in the base state over boreal summer/fall. So it’s difficult to know where things will stand once we lose the niño components of heat/mass exchange. That being said, while very preliminary, the manner in which the background state of circulation is *evolving* appears much closer to transition years such as 2020 and 2010, and far removed from transitions like 1998 (or 2003, in the other direction). And definitely not following the -SPMM dominant Niña EOF we saw in 2017, 2021 or 2022 (or 1975, inversely). Though maybe next year will, if the niña refuses to die again.

Another thing is that if you're going to show up to do an interview about the upcoming wildfire season, the first question is always going to be a request for a forecast. And saying the correct-ish answer of "there are too many unknown factors to say" isn't going to cut it. Listing the reasons for/against is definitely the way to go.

Yeah, they’re actually common, but they’re usually of the skinny/rope variety. Almost all are EF0 or EF1 (this one looks..beefier). Thats what I meant. Basically the same story here, lots of little spin ups but rare to see EF3+. But even rarer in that part of FL.

Hopefully the 12z run continues this theme. Quite chilly for almost the entire West.

What a day it was yesterday. Definitely had some nerves about much of the model output showing OVC, but was watching visible satellite like a hawk all morning and into early afternoon. Looking at satellite trends a few hours before the eclipse, I was starting to feel good that clouds wouldn't be an issue. Traffic from Indianapolis into the Ellettsville-Bloomington area was very good, and I arrived in that area with plenty of time to spare before the beginning of the eclipse. Spent a while driving back and forth in Bloomington and Ellettsville, looking for a spot that I wanted. We all have our personal preferences, but I didn't want to be in too large of a crowd and didn't want too many lights (which would come on during totality) or things obstructing the view of the horizon, so these factors made it tough to find a great spot in Bloomington. After deciding against Bloomington, it came down to finding a good place in Ellettsville. Even here, there were many spots where the view of the horizon wasn't the most ideal. There's an ice cream place in Ellettsville where the center line went directly through the parking lot. I drove by, and there were a good amount of people there. Thing is, they were charging $50 for parking! Any bragging rights of being directly on the center line wasn't worth $50. Some other businesses were charging for parking (though less) while others did not charge. Would've paid a small amount for parking had a particular spot been an ideal viewing location, but I wasn't finding what I wanted. I got to a church parking lot just north of center line shortly after the partial phase of the eclipse began (ironically I was in a church parking lot for the 2017 eclipse), where there were about 20 other people scattered around. Marked my location on the map below. Excitement was building of course as the minutes ticked down. Some dimming of light was noticeable starting about 30-40 minutes before totality. Around that time or perhaps shortly after, started to feel the temperature dropping. Although the winds were on a general downward trend leading up to totality, there seemed to be some little pulses of wind that accentuated the cooling. The temperature dropped 8 degrees at the Bloomington Airport, with the lowest reading coming a little after totality ended (lag effect.) I can't remember exactly when it occurred, but maybe about 20-30 minutes before totality, I started hearing a loud buzzing sound. At first I thought there was something flying by me, but then realized that it was coming from a ways away. Turned out to be bees, ostensibly freaking out because the daylight was diminishing. This continued almost until totality. A minute or two prior to totality, the darkening sky to the west really became noticeable. Daylight continued to diminish as I was flipping back and forth between looking at the sun, looking at the surroundings, and glancing at the time on my phone. Seconds before totality, the lights on a nearby building kicked on as the darkening accelerated. Then, the magic moment of totality. After taking in the experience of totality for a half minute or so, I got my binoculars, pointed them up to the sky and saw the majesty of the total eclipse... the blackness of the moon, the brilliance of the white corona and the prominence that was happening at about 6 o'clock. Passed my binoculars off to a couple others so they could get that view, and then I went back and forth between looking all around the sky with my own two eyes and taking in the darkness and reactions of the others who were there. Toward the end of totality, I heard some fireworks in the distance. Then, almost as soon as it began, totality was over as the clock was about to strike 3:09 pm. I hung around for a while after to watch the process in reverse, just feeling so fortunate to have had this experience for the second time in less than 7 years. Yet with a touch of sadness, knowing that it will be so long until the next one (at least in the US). Overall, it was a tremendous experience. I would say it hit me just a little less deeply on an emotional/spiritual level than the first time, but there was still some of that. I felt my heart beating fast during totality. Even if someone has seen 25 of these, I don't think you can help but not react in some way. Another thing I noticed is that in the minutes right before, through, and just after totality, there wasn't a single vehicle that drove by on state road 46. It was like everybody knew that you couldn't be driving in your car for those moments... you just couldn't. I'm all in for the eclipses in the 2040s and will try to do whatever it takes to be there.

My cousin in Dallas sent me this video and telescope pic… MOV_0542.mov