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Lots of colors popping now in North Bend... had to get some pics on my trip to Safeway.

Snow is just about to end. Dog is loving it

Dark cell just to my south with blue sky following up. Winds blowing hard!

Perhaps I should have checked the radar...I went out to take pictures at the Grist Mill before the fall colors faded and got absolutely nailed by a storm complete with pouring rain, lightning and a falling (mainly rotted) tree.

Fraser Canyon colors.

Just in time for the squall line! Excited

Lol was awoken by what sounded like branches clanging together about 30 minutes ago probably 75 feet from my tent…was scared sh*tless since I had no idea what the sounds were. Came out of my tent with a knife ready to get in my car since I wasn’t sure if it was a person doing it and I point my my flashlight and see these big a** bucks beating on eachother with their antlers. Makes sense now! So I scolded them and they ran off lmao.

Absolutely gorgeous drive to and from my friends place in Carnation this morning, the color was amazing! There where not many places to easily pull off of SR-203 but I did take a few pics up off of the side road by their property. Then stopped at the Lake Goodwin lake house on the way back. Was a drizzle fest! .16” so far on the day at home.

Some strange texture to the cloud deck moving overhead right now. Maybe related to some low level instability? These are unedited.

Back by unpopular demand…The Daily Fuzz!! Forget all of your fancy WeatherBell subscriptions and what not…This is all you will need!!

I wonder how we would have all approached the Columbus Day Storm from a model riding perspective and our reactions thereafter. I think we would go from the "Wow, look at that!" with all of the fun, giddy feelings, then when we're 36 hours out and model agreement is rock solid for 80-100+mph gusts in western OR, WA, perhaps that changes to anxious, concerned, making preparations to ensure safety of our family and pets. Prepping for power outages and rushing to the store to buy supplies, food, and other essentials. I mean it's bound to happen again. For many of us extreme or severe weather is interesting and exciting because well, it's quite boring in the PNW for a large chunk of the year or multiple years. We don't root for destruction, hardships, or deaths, we just realize you can't control any of it, so from a meteorological or weather geek perspective we enjoy the anomalous and historic side of weather. Just my take on it.

Salmon fishing off the Klickitat R the other day. The sunrise was so spectacular the salmon were even jumping out of the water to take a look.

Currently trying to compress images and clean up space for the forum. Since I removed the upload restrictions in November '18, we were close to running out of space. I have put in something that limits file uploads to under 100mb per post, this means no more 15 minute videos of dark clouds in suburban DC. If anyone wants to upload longer videos, either compress it or break it apart.

Beautiful evening here after the rains passed. Good enough to get some kayaking in.

Before these Bombnado Cyclones strip all the colors from these trees!

Placement of the low isn’t as important as looking at the nature of the system. This is a displaced maritime polar vortex and associated surface low. Our traditional windstorms are typically associated with open waves which feature strong jet support and associated backside pressure rises.

I know this is a weather forum - but figured I'd share that today my 10th grader qualified for the Iowa High School Boys State Cross Country meet next weekend in Fort Dodge. His team qualified and so did he as an individual running a 16:42 over a moderate 5KM course finishing 11th overall.

My pics suck compared to Tyler’s but here are a few from my travels today. The Snow Geese were busy today!

Tahoe airport this morning...

Beautiful fall weather and fall colors on display today. I’m really lucking out on the weather with this trip!

First flake of the 2021-22 season: 10/20 @ 17:03.

Going down the rabbit hole on Pivotal...

Rainbow memory from 10/25/2014. This was about a year and a few months before my better cameras, the contrast had to be fixed a little and the lighting.

More goodies from Michael Trofimov! Battle Ground again this afternoon. You can almost see the spinning updraft in these pictures.

Had a 50mph wind gust and 1/2inch of rain, but it's all over now and the sun is shining. Storm total for this one was 1.25 inches. On to the next one.

You have really matured on here quickly, well said!!

Jim is not a fan of the wind… I would venture to guess that if that was a massive snow bomb off the coast he would be looking at the Yugoslavian model that shows the storm getting close to us and he would be all over it!! And we are going to need his snow/cold enthusiasm here in a few Weeks!!!

Looking ahead... the GFS shows a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

For those whom put stock in CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 temp forecasts ( I never have as the bias is obvious) where was this cool shot 1-2 weeks ago??? Not even close to what has happened. DSM is going to be -6F ( or so) for a 5 day period starting on the 21st - through the 25th. And that is "above normal" according to previous outlooks??? CPC is blinded by political issues. No accountability either. Sorry for the rant and truth. And yet their winter forecasts are what get blasted on main stream media. Even Jim Flowers called them out on that. Sorry for the rant, but Truth will set you free!!

I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound. But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size. That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. that sounds perfect!

Nice day at Alderbrook. 55 degrees. Was totally calm earlier but rainy and windy now.

Okay all. Here comes the forecast you have all been waiting for. The man who essentially NAILED the past two winters, is back to make it rain (OR SNOW) again. Buckle up. It is going to be a fun ride. November: It's hard not to read the tea leaves and go mild and dryish with this month. I don't think it s a lock, but I think we have an above average chance at warmer than normal temps and we will likely see at least a 7-10 period where ridging dominates. The beginning and end of the month will probably be the wettest. We get into inversion season in November, so temps can be tricky, but I feel at least some of the ridging will be the kind of dirty ridging that brings mild southerly flow in November. Temps: Regionally likely above average, warmer further south. Could see some WV inversions towards Thanksgiving. Warmest part of the month will probably be 10-20th. Could be a very warm month south of Eugene. Best chance for cold anomalies later in the month. MAYBE early, though not a big chance. Precip: Generally below average, though not necessarily a dry month. First week could be fairly wet, last week could trend wetter too. Extreme northern parts of the PNW could be fairly wet overall. Snow: Very low chances for lowland snow. Small chance north of Seattle late in the month, very unlikely south of Portland. Cascade snowfall likely below average. December: I expect things to pick up and we will likely see our coolest December since 2017. Temps: Regionally average to slightly below average. Best chance for below average temperatures in NE Washington. Best chance of above normal temps across southern Oregon (SW and SE Oregon). Better than average chance of a cold, but fairly short (2-3) Willamette Valley inversion mid-month. Something like this... https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2006&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0... Precip: Overall a fairly wet and active month. Above average precip for most of the region. Quite a bit of onshore flow and full latitude troughing. Likely less of a N/S precip gradient than November. Snow: About average lowland snow chances for the month of December. Likely 1-2 minor lowland snow events. Not getting a December 08' feel, but a significant regional event is possible, though not likely. Would be surprised if no sticking snow north of Seattle, or if the Willamette Valley was entirely shut out. Should be a good month for the Cascades. I bet Spokane does well. January: Overall I am most bullish on January. I think the long term models are most bullish on December/March, but my sense is January is our best bet. Temps: Generally below average. We could have a torching period which skews things a little, but overall I would say it will easily be the coldest January regionally since 2017, and some places could see their coldest January since 1993. Best chances for arctic air around the New Year and then later in the month. Better than 50% of a regional arctic outbreak. At some point I think we see an AR which will bring a thaw and several day torch to parts of Central and Eastern Oregon. Precip: Generally above average, though closer to average than December. At some point we could see some jet suppression, best chance for below normal precip is probably north of Seattle. Snow: At least one significant snow event West of the Cascades that is fairly widespread. Most areas will see accumulating snow. Cascade snow near normal. I expect NE Washington (Spokane) to do well once again. February: February has been red hot over the past five years, does lightning strike again? Salem has been colder in February than January the past 4 years, that will not happen again, but it will be a decent month. Temps: Average to slightly below. If we get a cold snap in late January it could linger into early February. Otherwise a cool, but not cold month, maybe turning colder again late in the month. Precip: Above average. Snow: Generally low snow levels, probably something similar to February 2017 or 2009. A lot of places could see accumulating snow at some point, but any big snows will likely be further north, elevation dependent, or narrowly focused. Cascade snowfall should be above average. March: Could be a very chilly month. Temps: Below average, especially the first half of the month. Precip: Near average, drier further north, likely above average in Oregon. Snow: Widespread lowland snow unlikely. Possibly significant foothill and Cascade snow. Best lowland snow chances north interior of Washington, and C-zone. Recap: Overall I expect a cooler and wetter than normal winter after a fairly mundane November. It has the potential to be one of the most active winters in recent memory. December could be very stormy. We will flirt with lowland snow every month December-March with January holding big potential. Most of us will see snow in the air before Christmas. November has the best chance for above normal temps. January and March have the best potential to be cold/cool. Overall coolest winter since 2016-17, wettest winter since at least 16-17, potentially 11-12'. Cascade snow pack will be above normal. Snow predictions: Seattle: 14" PDX: 9" SLE: 12" EUG: 8" "My Location:" 60-70" TWL will see sub-freezing high.

One year ago today--- can't wait!!!

I finished with 2.32". I think that's a bit more than most models were showing for mby.

Almost ready! Christmas lights up later this week and snowblower on the tractor on Sunday. Then bring it!

There was a Tornado Warning at 2 today for a confirmed tornado about 5 miles west of my place in Troy Kansas. The cell passed about 1 mile north of me but I'm pretty sure the tornado lifted shortly after forming. Went outside when it passed and it felt like May outside. Now it's misting and feels like November. What a storm system. Crazy October weather. I sure hope this stuff comes around in December and we can get a blizzard out of it

I freaked myself out while camping in the back of my truck in Alaska...swear I heard breathing right by me, in my head,it was a huge grizzly...turns out it was ME moving on the air mattress. That was at 3 in the morning, could not get back to bed with my heart racing still haha

Pic from this morning. Got down to 36 and we even had 0.65 of rain yesterday, which was awesome.

Quite a different look here today compared to what I left yesterday. Clouds did finally move in/thicken up mid-afternoon

Reminded me of the ol’ sailor’s saying…“blood red sunset over a Boeing 737-800’s wingtip, sailors prepare like a mofo for a straight the f*ck up lit a** December”

Honestly I think the last month or so has been a lot better. Removing one person from the equation completely changed the whole dynamic of this place.

Had another storm roll through the area this evening. Great structure and some nice lightning bolts. There was some nice rotation but nothing every dropped out. Now tornado free for 23 days

Always nice to see this time of year IMO. A washout +EPO fall here seems to beget a significantly cold and amplified midwinter period far more often than if it was the other way around.

The wind event on my birthday in 1983 what happened to also be Thanksgiving Day was what kickstarted my fascination with the weather! I was in awe of the roar of the wind through the trees. A large maple tree went down in the woods next to the house which caused a loud thud. It was thrilling! My dad BBQ’d the Turkey that night since the power was out. Was out for about a week, my sister and I thought it was great! I don’t think my parents shared the same enthusiasm. Then there was the Inauguration Day storm 10yrs later, I had just gotten my license the month before and so I was now driving to school in my bitchin El Camino, they let school out early due to loss of power so I was driving home but each route I took was blocked by trees, the 3rd option worked though! It was a little scary driving under all of the giant swaying evergreens. 1995…My dad and I sat outside the garage that night and watched the sky constantly lighting up with transformers blowing. Fun times!!

Rattlesnake Lake in North Bend, with Rattlesnake Ledge (THE busiest hike in the NW) behind it. I’ve been fishing there on my kayak, no motors allowed. Kayaking is my favorite way to see the lake, if you paddle to the opposite side, you can feel alone out there on a busy day. Lake is low currently despite the September rains because the lake level is primarily controlled by the watershed. Now is a great time to see remnants of Moncton, the town at the bottom of the lake that was accidentally flooded in the early 1900s. Spotted a heron on the shore there today. In past summers, I have seen otters playing in the water and sunbathing on the stumps.

57/43 today. Some trees in my neighborhood looking decent.

39 this morning.

Got a shot of the setting moon this morning. The fancy new iPhone camera has its limits because the photo doesn’t do it justice.