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Probably my last trip up to Chinook Pass this morning. Temperatures were below freezing about 1,000' below Cayuse. Roads were very icy, but drive-able, but the views were amazing.

Snowing at Timberline Lodge now

So some of this is going to be hard to read, may sound harsh, or seem like it’s just coming from some jackass who doesn’t know your life. All of that is true. Firstly, if you haven’t already, run through your bank statements and nuke every subscription you have that you cannot justify to a judge. Fun spend? That’s gone. This includes beer, cigs, coffee in a paper cup, or avocado mashed on a piece of toasted brioche. Paying for RedZone, unlimited data, or Planet Fitness, well, stop paying for that. If I recall correctly, you have kids, so you should be exceedingly mindful in how you’re handling this in front of them. I grew up in a travel trailer with limited heat and had a couple chunks of my childhood marked by Mac and cheese for several nights in a row or making a trip to the church pantry. I do appreciate my Mom and Dad keeping their spirits up making sure my brother and I had our needs met first. So you’ve cut everything at this point, maybe sold the PS5, eBay’d some sports memorabilia, so what’s next? Social services. You live in Oregon, a state that when ranked for services is only beaten by Minnesota and Massachusetts. That a good thing if you can’t find your boot straps or some other unrealistic American trope for someone in your situation. My wife works for the Washington state department of social and health services and has given me the full picture of what is out there for state aid, and a quick Google search shows that Oregon’s equivalent is the Oregon Department of Human Services. You will have access to a social worker who will personally guide you through assistance and aid programs ranging from rental assistance, home health care (includes baby sitting or basic house keeping depending on the need and situation), to food programs separate from SNAP/WIC, and even technology and employment help (job counseling and employment matching). This is should all be in addition to any federal benefits you are most likely getting. Once you’ve gone through the website, taken some notes, requested assistance, then you probably can start looking for work. Skills? Education? Professional experience? Easier said than done, but finding white collar work with a state institution will be the quickest way to something that will be both stable and much more accommodating to your health situation. If you had an episode and were injured on the job or had your employment threatened over something tied to your disability even though your employer made commitments to accommodation because you voluntarily disclosed your health and disability status before and during your employment, you might have a case. Find someone pro-bono or who has worked with the disability community and has worked cases around the Americans with Disabilities Act. Odds are low that someone will take the case unless you have text messages or documents that can help construct a narrative of discrimination. Lastly, recognize that this is a quest that will require more sacrifices than you have made, hard decisions you’ll have to make, and will be filled with tedious paperwork, phone calls, and arcane sounding requirements. But you probably already knew all of that. https://www.oregon.gov/odhs/aging-disability-services/pages/default.aspx

So I got let go from my job yesterday after having worked there for over a year. No one else would hire me. I never once called out, always valued and enjoyed going to work and doing the best I could given my struggles with epilepsy. I listened to my supervisors and improved in my performance on the job. I would regularly have seizures and would wake up on the floor sometimes and there wasn't anyone else in the building with me. The supervisors told me I was getting better at the job. Then the building manager said I wasn't doing a good enough job and told the janitor service to fire me or they would drop them and go with a different janitorial service. My wife is going in for surgery again tomorrow for the 3rd time. My 40th birthday is in one week so I'm excited for... I suppose the important thing to take away from this is: Get a job no matter how difficult it is to find one after applying hundreds of places with countless interviews. Show up to work, value the job and don't ever call out for any reason at all. Improve at the job even if you have a disability which makes it extremely difficult. Still get better at the job and always show up, be loyal to and value the job for over a year. Get fired for valuing the job and showing up while trying your best. If anybody has any ideas as to how to take the next step forward then I'd love to hear suggestions. I can't afford food so I just don't really eat anymore and the local food banks are always empty when I show up. No matter what, if we get some snow this winter that will at least be pretty and nice to enjoy.

Well , I suppose it’s time to head north but it’s going be so hard !! The continued record breaking temps in Az haven’t bugged me at all since this is just such a different environment than back home. I’ve been loving it! Decided to go explore the Sonoran desert and see if I could get a good shot of the comet! iPhone of course enhances it a lot from what it really look like with the naked eye. The aurora borealis showed up as well one night. I am looking forward to the fall colors and storms back home

Landed in Fairbanks this morning. They just got hit with a pretty decent snowstorm for this time of year. Around 6" or so accumulated. By the time we were ready to make the 120 mile trek southward to Healy via truck, the area was pretty much a slushy mess with temps hovering around 37F or so. Currently working in Healy. Will *try* to post pics as best I can. I've never been to the Alaskan interior before. It's nice here. The people are amazingly polite. Everywhere I've been today, the general public is pleasant. I can sort of see why a few people want to escape to up here for good. Haven't seen wildlife yet. That'll change soon, though. 20241021_125933.mp4 20241021_164357.mp4

EPS control shows lowland snow on Halloween.

Thanks to all the wind and leaves on the ground I've had some very festive walks at night recently. The skiff of rain makes it even better. If it weren't for the smell of rotting vegetation you'd probably pick up on a hint of pumpkin spice from the vibes alone.

I made it up that way this morning. Brought the skis and got my October day. 96 months in a row now.

She’s 35 f*ckstick. It’s a women’s league, you think they generate enough interest to have their games at Century Link Field? Mostly just wives and girlfriends in the stands, and the occasional husband or boyfriend.

Quick photo dump from a hike up to No Name Lake this afternoon, first snow hike of the year! Started off foggy with some light flurries moving through every now and then, and increasing blue sky as the afternoon progressed.

My Winter Weather predictions were first presented on Saturday at the Oregon Chapter of The American Meteorological Society (AMS)'s Winter Weather Forecast Conference. Now that it's been more than 48 hours, the videos are live on my YouTube Channel: Predictions only: https://youtu.be/3k-KZ6CQs1Y?si=TKjkaVEVY4rgjj4Q Technical version (same presentation as the conference): https://youtu.be/jnV_gB5ZGVM?si=37wdGw-ixGAHPUyr I'll post the rest of the presentations when they are available. Edit: Full 25 page report with citations and any formulas used are in the description of the Technical version.

I love playing in the snow and being outside when it’s well below freezing…But I also love being able to just walk right back into a cozy 68-70 degree house and just look at the view.

18 degrees currently with a low of 15. Great webcam view on Bachelor, really starting to feel like winter

41 spooktacular degrees on the WD.

Winter is finally here. Got half of an inch before sunrise (which was a beautiful sunrise), and another half of an inch or so afterwards. Depending on where I was measuring we got anywhere from .8"-1.1" rFYc9zlOfuaT_2M7.mp4

The topic of blowing and drifting snow came up today. In early February 2013 my father-in-law had a catastrophic stroke. We thought he would die (he survived) at the time, so we made an emergency drive out to Regina, Saskatchewan. The Canadian Prairies have a lot of sun in the winter. It also happened to be a winter with near-record snowfall. Normally, there would be 8-12” on the ground. On the drive home, it got blustery creating blowing snow. One morning there was hoar frost. It was about -15F that morning and calm.

Ahh yes. The great November snowstorm of 2006. It was a doozy here.

The Sierra had the biggest 24 hour May snow storm on record. That storm came in crazy strong.

@snow_wizard Thought you might appreciate this map my dad has

I’ve got to post it when I see it.

Beautiful sunset on the Oregon Coast tonight

Reading through the most recent pages it appears that La Nina may not happen this year. As we all have probably experienced La Nina's that had little Arctic intrusions, let alone snow. We can take comfort in the fact that ENSO neutral years (1916-68-69-1985 and 1990) have produced some of the largest snowfalls in the Puget Sound region. So happy trails and think snow!

Now we are talking!

Euro

It’s definitely fall!!!! Time for me to go pay my wet soggy yard some attention but first I’ll get a fire going in the fireplace so I can smell that sweet October air in a proper way. As I traveled back from Az I did take the time to pull off the road to make my first snowball location : just south of JackPot Nevada

Surprised more people aren't talking about the 18z

This has been one of the most normal, tame, average falls I've seen here in years. The only "strange" thing has been the relative lack of organized storm systems, but we've still recieved enough spotty moisture to soften the autumn transition and re-bloom the grass. I realize it's been much different further south and east, but in the Seattle area it's been about three consecutive months of gradually increasing insolation and Pacific influence without much of a defined weather regime, aside from a mid August jet extension and persistent SW torching. Feels like the calm before the storm (the "storm" being many, many storms)

Sitting in a cafe in Everett just outside of the navy base. While the horizon is starting to clear out, there is that distinct yellowed paper look. Trees are seemingly at peak with the various maples giving to reds and yellows, but the show is being stolen by a small patch of blueberries with thanksgiving colors adorning the remainder of the leaves. I'm stretching Birkinstock season as the air has that decidedly moist and cold feel, but my toes are left out of the pleasure of a hot cup of coffee giving my circulatory system some help in it's radiant heat. There is something about this environ that nurtures an academic desire, the warm tones, leather chairs, and dark skies, and my third cup of coffee.

whew

For anyone in the Portland area: Winter Weather Forecast Confrence this coming Saturday (the 19th) at 10AM at OMSI. Come see what some of us think the upcoming winter will look like.

Neutral or Niña, seems like a win-win in the analog pool. This winter has destiny attached to it.

Just a couple weeks then we get the GFS at 8PM and the EC at 10PM again.

That’s great news for all the tourists making an early season Tacoma winter getaway, beating the crush of holiday season vacationers.

It's also a little cutoff-y without a ton of jet support behind it, and it may be filling in as it lands on our doorstep. Still should bring some decent 35-40mph gusts to places, if nothing else.

Flakes flying at Paradise right now!

For me cold in October just feels good. Frosty leaves, the bite in the air, the bright fall colors, etc. Just something about the Octobers I saw when I was younger gave me that preference. I'm always about cold no matter when it comes. Also always looking for the 100 freeze season. I wonder if we are still capable of those or not.

Pounding pea sized hail here in South Everett. Don't see that light pink color on the radar here very often! PXL_20241017_005600134.mp4

Possible funnel cloud? Earlier a vigorous cell moved east-southeast of West Linn/Oregon City intensifying as it approached the Redland area. Velocities mode indicated an area of rotation with this storm moved from west to east in the vicinity of S Redland Road, S Fischers Mill Road, S Strowbridge Road, and S Springwater Road. Correlation Coefficient even suggested a small and brief area of debris may have occurred best estimated to be near the Redland Family Farm. Hopefully someone took video of this storm which did produce several lightning strikes to get an idea what structure it had or to confirm the rotation. It's kind of fun to see active weather returning to the area with this cell today and yesterday's impressive funnel cloud west of Battle Ground.

Getting some soft hail out of this cell. The development reminds me of a weird convergence cell from a few years ago that was effectively stationary over downtown Everett.

54F degrees and heavy hail outside in Everett. Very dark clouds and the hail is coming down sideways aiming southward.

These next few runs will be critical.

I’m paying attention.

0.34 last night. This should end the fire season here for good with cooler and wet temperatures over the next few weeks.

Mark Nelsen is on board for a La Niña winter.

We don’t need less cops. We need better accountability for police officers and to get rid of corrupt ones. Easier said than done obviously…but decreasing police presence is a bad idea. End qualified immunity. Take the settlements for violations of people’s rights out of the police pension fund instead of paying settlements with tax payer dollars.

Wow it really dropped from 4am until now. First freeze of the season at 31F.

Saw a couple decent sized wildfires in the fields yesterday on my way back from South Dakota… just crazy how such a large part of the Midwest is dealing with unseasonably warm and bone dry weather. The winds were crazy yesterday too, probably gusting up to 45-50 MPH at times in open areas, just a bad deal all around.

I’m not saying us getting cold in October is a good or bad sign for winter. I don’t think it means anything good or bad. I’m just saying most people aren’t really going to find some frosty pumpkins and some days in the low to mid 40s around Halloween all that interesting.