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I've been checked out the past week and a half....Am I correct in my interpretation that our long overdue dud winter has come home to roost? I've watched a couple of Michael Snyder videos and that's it, but that is the sense I've been getting. My mom took a significant turn for the worse about a week and a half ago (she's been on hospice for the past 2 years off and on, the last 7 months straight after suffering another stroke). Last Saturday the Hospice team said it would be in the next week or 2. Her siblings and some of my cousins in Georgia gathered by her bedside today, and and we (my wife and kids) called and said goodbye. My cousin held the phone up to my mom's ear. My cousin said her eyes fluttered when we talked to her. Up until that point she was completely unresponsive. I guess a little later in the day she finally opened her eyes a couple of times but has been non-verbal and barely eating for over a week.. Now we wait for nature to take it's course. Last check in from hospice was Friday and they said "in the next few days." My wife has surgery next week to remove the part of her thyroid that had a tumor on it (from the cancer scare a few years ago) and then in all likelihood as soon as she is well enough to be on her own I will be heading back for the funeral.

Had a day off so I headed east. 28 and dense fog in Yakima. Hoar frost near Naches, sunny everywhere else. 38 at White Pass, 64 in Packwood. Stopped by Ridgefield WR on the way home. 31/59 at home. Mostly looked like mid to late March. Rainier looked like about May.

Hello all... can't believe it took me so long to find a forum where people chat about Seattle weather all day haha! This winter has been very disappointing. I love the snow and hate the sun, lol.

We owe the GFS an apology

Woah

There is and he will be investigated and charged for his crimes. If people just followed the law then we wouldn't be having all of these issues.

Some photos from the depths of winter hell

Took the boy on an alpine adventure today. Beautiful.

This just Popped up on my memories from 2016 when I was in High School tracking the Dec 2016 snow which ended up just being a 2” overrunning event (I’d gladly take that right now) back then all of my buddies would make fun of me for looking at weather forums all day

Bout to head to the coast to enjoy some brilliant winter sunshine. I got no dog in the fight but maybe I'll stop into Merry Time and watch Sam Darnold throw a couple pick 6's while the EPS goes to **** and the world slowly circles the drain of eternal misery and torment

EPS is definitely better

No it’s not. This is day 12 for both the GFS and EURO. Come on man. You don’t have to be miserable all the time. Try to enjoy a good run.

This Winter has made me feel a LOT of things, but teased definitely isn't one of them. Even in fantasy range, there have been shockingly few cold/snowy runs and nothing meaningful ever got within about 10 days. No tease. Just boredome. Hopefully that changes soon. This is clearly our best chance of the Winter so far. That just isn't saying much yet.

I flew right over Rainier, Adams, St. Helens, Hood, and Jefferson on the way to Redmond today. Most beautiful flight of my life by far. 20260117_105136.mp4

All in all, a very positive morning! Well except for Andrew and Winterdog wishing this beautiful morning would be their last…And the Seahawks going down in flames tomorrow night. Otherwise things are looking good!

GEM's come around. This is it's first arctic run of 2025-26, no?

Generally speaking AI Models are better at recognizing and predicting large scale patterns (500mb anomalies, Blocking location, Longwave Trough / Ridge placement, Jet Stream position, etc) while traditional models are still a lot better at predicting the specifics of smaller scale features (exact storm tracks / strengths, cold /arctic fronts, precitation amounts and location, thunderstorms, CZ's, etc.) This is because AI models are trained purely on historic data and these large scale patterns change more slowly and have a LOT more readily available data for them to use. Traditional models are physics based which allows them to more accurately predict unusual and specific smaller scale features that AI models just don't have enough data on yet to accurately predict. Since right now we are only interested in the large scale features in the 8+ day range, I'd give the slight edge to the AI models which have been more often showing cold troughing in the PNW the last week of Jan. Doesn't mean it'll happen of course but it has be a bit more optimistic. Food for thought.

AI gefs and euro agreement.

Better gefs

Woah

Fog bank just sitting there.

On a day like today you can see Adams, St Helens, and Rainier from Silverton.

Went down the Riverside trail to the Madison River today... they have a lot of bison tracks around.

Oh my...

Interesting...

After like a decade of model riding I've resigned to admitting I have no f!#^!*& idea what's going on

We get it Phil. The score is 35 to 3 in the 4th quarter. Just allow some of us to believe a comeback can happen.

Admittedly this is a much different situation than the stuck phantom snaps 360 hours out we've dredged through since Thanksgiving. We have the ingredients in place now for something close within 200 hours. Timing is moving up and ensembles are consolidating on a brief -PNA episode with cold air in SW Canada. It might be tough to get cold south of the border but we're looking at the best shot we've had all winter, for whatever that may be worth. I'm not excited yet but I am curious.

Not much fog but pretty cold out here.

Welcome! You will find all kinds here - some are just winter weather fanatics, some love the extremes especially catastrophic wind events, some of us like to complain about everything lol, some of us just love the sunshine and warm temps, and nearly all of us hate the GFS.

I'm driving to Jackson wyoming to pick up my new diesel truck. Its a 2026 ram 2500 custom built truck by AEV. I'm getting a small camper designed for cold weather so we can do the Alaska and Yukon trip in winter. I want to drive to the north slope.

Ai gfs is a snow machine

270 hours out on the GFS is the new nowcast

Chilly

Holy crap. 18z GEFS improved, but the 18z AIGEFS went 100% all in. If this event ends up panning out, we should remember that the AIGEFS led the way on this. It's been leaning cold for the last several days now. 18z AIGEFS: Run to run:

Just picked her up in Jackson wyoming. D**n near hit a moose on Teton pass!!

Took a trip to the lake today. Nice day.

Feb 2021 redux on GFS

EURO delivers tonight! Enough Arctic air makes its way south to give most people snow. Great run!

Verrado Az Sky art / conspiracy art ?!?! lol, I enjoyed it for what it’s worth last night with a cocktail. Gin martini up with a twist. On a fun note here, Luke AFB is not far from my place so I get these beautiful aircraft flying drills all day several times a week. F-15,16 & 35’s I feel for you all back home . Hoping the perfect snowstorm is formulating in the long term and pummels the northwest!!!! IMG_1337.mov

The view from our neighbors above us when I was picking their kids for morning carpool to school. Looking out at the Olympics and Whidbey Island/Camano Island and puget sound/I-5 in the low clouds/fog.

I posted this on Facebook two years ago today. The Euro was the most accurate compared to the government-produced forecasts from Environment Canada. Abbotsford saw a foot of snow. Where I am in Mission we got “14 from this bundle of joy.

Shut up. Keep politics to DMs or somewhere else.

The ai gfs is worlds apart

The amount of westerly momentum being evacuated from the subtropics is much higher than you’d want to see ahead of a +TNH —> -EPO/-NPO type retrogression. If I lived in the PNW I’d have high hopes but low expectations for the time being.

True arctic front at day 10 and -16 850's to SEA at day 11 on the Euro.