July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.

[Doinko]

15 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest.  

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

Looks like no one did that great for Saturday. I guessed 95 and PDX hit 102. The GFS is also forecasting 101 for today (Euro: 100), while I put 93. Looks like Monday and Tuesday might hit 90 as well, which would tie the record for 90 degree days in a row at PDX. Too late to extend it now I guess but the duration of this heatwave has been impressive.

[Deweydog]

Heavenly day sevenly:

PDX: 102/69

SEA: 95/63

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Heavenly day sevenly:

PDX: 102/69

SEA: 95/63

I was 7 degrees too cold yesterday off the high.

[Anti Marine Layer]

In a few months snowmen will be walking on treadmills. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I actually did well with my very general forecast.  I went with 88 - 95 for each day for SEA Monday through Friday which was perfect, but I never really made an official forecast for the whole thing.

[Deweydog]

Roll the credits, SHUT IT DOWN!

You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here…

PDX:

92/59

99/66

102/67

96/67

96/67

100/69

102/69

98/69

SEA:

84/56

87/62

94/65

91/61

94/61

95/63

95/63

95/65

[SnowWillarrive]

On 7/23/2022 at 2:45 PM, SnowWillarrive said:

PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/69

7/28: 104/70

7/29: 103/70

7/30: 100/68

7/31: 94/65

Sadly my triple digits were not that far off from reality for PDX. 

[Doinko]

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

Congratulations on winning for PDX!

[Doinko]

16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

7/30 and 7/31 definitely had the largest discrepancy between forecasts and what actually happened, most of us didn't expect the heatwave to have lasted as long as it did it seems.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Congratulations on winning for PDX!

Thanks! Now my next goal is to win one of the Arctic Blast/Winter contest.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! Now my next goal is to win one of the Arctic Blast/Winter contest.

Just use the completely accurate and infallible GFS surface temps...