July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX: 96/65

SEA:86/61

I was a little too cold for all my temps yesterday. 

Your avatar has been surviving the heat wave well.

[Deweydog]

Day three will set you free!

PDX: 102/67

SEA: 94/65

It’s all (mostly) downhill from here!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Day three will set you free!

PDX: 102/67

SEA: 94/65

It’s all (mostly) downhill from here!

18Z EPS for SEA and PDX.   Holds pretty steady up here if it's right.   Have to see tomorrow after marine push to believe it.

[Eastwind]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Day three will set you free!

PDX: 102/67

SEA: 94/65

It’s all (mostly) downhill from here!

I was 2 degrees too cold on the highs for PDX and SEA. I got 98 next 3 days for PDX so will bust cold again.

[Eastwind]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS for SEA and PDX.   Holds pretty steady up here if it's right.   Have to see tomorrow after marine push to believe it.

EPS was 2 degrees too cold for PDX today. That means possibly 105 on Friday.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

EPS was 2 degrees too cold for PDX today. That means possibly 105 on Friday.

My forecast is busting way too cold it seems

[Eastwind]

10 hours ago, Doiinko said:

My forecast is busting way too cold it seems

PDX was 75 at 10am, yesterday they were at 79 same time. Our forecast might actually be correct today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX was 75 at 10am, yesterday they were at 79 same time. Our forecast might actually be correct today.

Better onshore flow

[Eastwind]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Better onshore flow

PDX only got to 96 today. I was actually a couple degrees too warm. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Thankfully my numbers have been a little high. The DPs are making up for the oppressive feeling though lol. 

[Deweydog]

The gore for day four:

PDX: 96/67

SEA: 91/61

[Eastwind]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

The gore for day four:

PDX: 96/67

SEA: 91/61

PDX: 98/69

SEA: 93/65

Too warm today.

[Deweydog]

Barely alive through day five:

PDX: 96/67

SEA: 94/61

[Anti Marine Layer]

Who is winning?

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Who is winning?

Everyone is a winner for participating 

[Deweydog]

Sweaty d*cks during day six:

PDX: 100/69

SEA: 95/63

[Eastwind]

Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

[Eastwind]

What's surprising about the numbers is out of all the entries, there have only been 2 correct predictions so far for both the hi/lo of the day. Tacoma with 94/65 on Tuesday for SEA and Frontal with 92/59 for PDX on Sunday. There have been 6 entries just 1 degree off and 10 entries just 2 degrees off though. Just shows you how hard weather forecasting is.

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

[Eastwind]

7 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest.  

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

[Doinko]

15 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest.  

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

Looks like no one did that great for Saturday. I guessed 95 and PDX hit 102. The GFS is also forecasting 101 for today (Euro: 100), while I put 93. Looks like Monday and Tuesday might hit 90 as well, which would tie the record for 90 degree days in a row at PDX. Too late to extend it now I guess but the duration of this heatwave has been impressive.

[Deweydog]

Heavenly day sevenly:

PDX: 102/69

SEA: 95/63

[Eastwind]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Heavenly day sevenly:

PDX: 102/69

SEA: 95/63

I was 7 degrees too cold yesterday off the high.

[Anti Marine Layer]

In a few months snowmen will be walking on treadmills. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I actually did well with my very general forecast.  I went with 88 - 95 for each day for SEA Monday through Friday which was perfect, but I never really made an official forecast for the whole thing.

[Deweydog]

Roll the credits, SHUT IT DOWN!

You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here…

PDX:

92/59

99/66

102/67

96/67

96/67

100/69

102/69

98/69

SEA:

84/56

87/62

94/65

91/61

94/61

95/63

95/63

95/65

[SnowWillarrive]

On 7/23/2022 at 2:45 PM, SnowWillarrive said:

PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/69

7/28: 104/70

7/29: 103/70

7/30: 100/68

7/31: 94/65

Sadly my triple digits were not that far off from reality for PDX. 

[Doinko]

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

[Eastwind]

15 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

Congratulations on winning for PDX!

[Doinko]

16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall	0	4	2	4	4	3	8	10	35
2. BLI Snowman	7	2	2	4	13	3	7	3	41
3. Phil	1	5	3	5	1	5	12	14	46
4. SnowWillarrive	5	5	4	6	11	4	3	8	46
5. Kayla	2	4	3	10	7	1	11	11	49
6. Doiinko	5	5	5	6	8	1	12	11	53
7. Deweydog	2	4	5	4	4	9	16	17	61
8. Cascadia_wx	1	6	6	4	2	8	17	20	64
9. GobBluth	3	7	3	4	3	8	17	20	65

 

 

SEA:

 

	7/24	7/25	7/26	7/27	7/28	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx	1	3	0	9	4	5	6	12	40
2. Frontal Snowsquall	2	2	3	6	7	5	9	14	48
3. Phil	2	3	2	6	9	8	11	14	55
4. BLI Snowman	7	4	4	10	8	6	11	8	58

 

7/30 and 7/31 definitely had the largest discrepancy between forecasts and what actually happened, most of us didn't expect the heatwave to have lasted as long as it did it seems.

[Eastwind]

4 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Congratulations on winning for PDX!

Thanks! Now my next goal is to win one of the Arctic Blast/Winter contest.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! Now my next goal is to win one of the Arctic Blast/Winter contest.

Just use the completely accurate and infallible GFS surface temps...