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July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.


TacomaWx

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Day three will set you free!

PDX: 102/67

SEA: 94/65

It’s all (mostly) downhill from here!

18Z EPS for SEA and PDX.   Holds pretty steady up here if it's right.   Have to see tomorrow after marine push to believe it.

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8858400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-8858400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thankfully my numbers have been a little high. The DPs are making up for the oppressive feeling though lol. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

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What's surprising about the numbers is out of all the entries, there have only been 2 correct predictions so far for both the hi/lo of the day. Tacoma with 94/65 on Tuesday for SEA and Frontal with 92/59 for PDX on Sunday. There have been 6 entries just 1 degree off and 10 entries just 2 degrees off though. Just shows you how hard weather forecasting is.

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4 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

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7 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest. 🤣 

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

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15 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest. 🤣 

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

Looks like no one did that great for Saturday. I guessed 95 and PDX hit 102. The GFS is also forecasting 101 for today (Euro: 100), while I put 93. Looks like Monday and Tuesday might hit 90 as well, which would tie the record for 90 degree days in a row at PDX. Too late to extend it now I guess but the duration of this heatwave has been impressive.

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I actually did well with my very general forecast.  I went with 88 - 95 for each day for SEA Monday through Friday which was perfect, but I never really made an official forecast for the whole thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

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15 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

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16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

7/30 and 7/31 definitely had the largest discrepancy between forecasts and what actually happened, most of us didn't expect the heatwave to have lasted as long as it did it seems.

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