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July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.


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15 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest. 🤣 

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

Looks like no one did that great for Saturday. I guessed 95 and PDX hit 102. The GFS is also forecasting 101 for today (Euro: 100), while I put 93. Looks like Monday and Tuesday might hit 90 as well, which would tie the record for 90 degree days in a row at PDX. Too late to extend it now I guess but the duration of this heatwave has been impressive.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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I actually did well with my very general forecast.  I went with 88 - 95 for each day for SEA Monday through Friday which was perfect, but I never really made an official forecast for the whole thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Roll the credits, SHUT IT DOWN!

You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here…

PDX:

92/59

99/66

102/67

96/67

96/67

100/69

102/69

98/69

SEA:

84/56

87/62

94/65

91/61

94/61

95/63

95/63

95/65

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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15 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

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8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks Doiinko for grading it! I've been busy the past couple days with work.

Congratulations on winning for PDX!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

 

Final results! Someone should probably check these numbers as it's 1 am so I probably made a few errors!
The numbers are degrees of error of highs + lows, lower is better.

PDX:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
Total Error Hi&Lo
1. Frontal Snowsquall 0 4 2 4 4 3 8 10 35
2. BLI Snowman 7 2 2 4 13 3 7 3 41
3. Phil 1 5 3 5 1 5 12 14 46
4. SnowWillarrive 5 5 4 6 11 4 3 8 46
5. Kayla 2 4 3 10 7 1 11 11 49
6. Doiinko 5 5 5 6 8 1 12 11 53
7. Deweydog 2 4 5 4 4 9 16 17 61
8. Cascadia_wx 1 6 6 4 2 8 17 20 64
9. GobBluth 3 7 3 4 3 8 17 20 65

 

 

SEA:

 

  7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 Total Error Hi&Lo
1. TacomaWx 1 3 0 9 4 5 6 12 40
2. Frontal Snowsquall 2 2 3 6 7 5 9 14 48
3. Phil 2 3 2 6 9 8 11 14 55
4. BLI Snowman 7 4 4 10 8 6 11 8 58

 

7/30 and 7/31 definitely had the largest discrepancy between forecasts and what actually happened, most of us didn't expect the heatwave to have lasted as long as it did it seems.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thanks! Now my next goal is to win one of the Arctic Blast/Winter contest. 😁

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Just use the completely accurate and infallible GFS surface temps...

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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