July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.

[TacomaWx]

I Think having your predictions in by midnight Sunday morning sounds fair. 

[The Blob]

PDX

Sun- 93

Mon- 98

Tue- 105

Wed- 100

Thur- 96

[TacomaWx]

This was my original prediction though obviously things will change a bit in the next few days as we get closer. hopefully my final one I do at the end of the week and what actually happens is much cooler.

7/24-85/59

7-25 92/64

7-26 98/68

7-27 99/68

7-28-100/69

7-29 95/66

[Meatyorologist]

SEA

Sun - 84F

Mon - 90F

Tues - 95F

Wed - 99F

Thu - 97F

[TacomaWx]

Hmmm here’s what I think for SEA

Sun-86

Mon-93

Tue-99

Wed-100

Thu-100

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA will record a 70F+ low

[Phil]

SeaTac:

Sun: 84°

Mon: 91°

Tues: 94°

Wed: 95°

Thurs: 94°

 

[Doinko]

I have no experience doing this but why not try?  PDX:

7/24: 92

7/25: 103

7/26: 106

7/27: 98

7/28: 100

7/29: 90

[Kayla]

15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I have no experience doing this but why not try?  PDX:

2/24: 92

2/25: 103

2/26: 106

2/27: 98

2/28: 100

2/29: 90

This seems pretty warm for February...

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This seems pretty warm for February...

I have no idea why I wrote 2 lol

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

This seems pretty warm for February...

If that verified I would admittedly go full Jesse.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

I have no idea why I wrote 2 lol

I think you have posts about winter time events on the brain

[Cascadia_Wx]

I refuse to participate in this contest because I will not assist in validating or in any way celebrating potential heat events of this magnitude.

[Deweydog]

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

1940s style heat wave.   Much better.  

[Mr Marine Layer]

No one gave the official date range to predict.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What I'm thinking right now, will update later.

PDX:

Sun-90

Mon-97

Tue-100

Wed-99

Thu-98

Fri-96

[rsktkr]

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

Lol unless there’s a big model change this seems pretty low. 

[GobBluth]

PDX:

Sun-86

Mon-98

Tue-103

Wed-101

Thu-96

Fri-91

[Meatyorologist]

me validating and celebrating heatwaves by forecasting them

[snow_wizard]

On 7/19/2022 at 6:23 PM, TacomaWx said:

Hmmm here’s what I think for SEA

Sun-86

Mon-93

Tue-99

Wed-100

Thu-100

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

[snow_wizard]

12 hours ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Put yo $ where yo mouth is, big guy!

[ShawniganLake]

KPDX:

Sunday: 92

Monday: 98

Tuesday: 102

Wednesday: 101

Thursday: 101

Friday: 100

Saturday: 98

Sunday: 93

 

SEA

Sunday: 83

Monday: 87

Tuesday: 93

Wednesday: 94

Thursday: 95

Friday: 91

Saturday: 88

Sunday: 86

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Mark Nelsen mentioned a chance of it being humid because of no surface offshore flow.

[Doinko]

Based on the new Euro I think I should extend my forecast from Sunday to next Saturday. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Mark Nelsen mentioned a chance of it being humid because of no surface offshore flow.

I think mid 60’s dew points will be a good bet.

[TacomaWx]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

It was never going to hit 100 here with the upper level setup shown.  There is one or two days things look like they could get pretty toasty in that regard.

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

They are showing a clear end late next week / early next weekend with that shortwave, but I'm not happy about the trend of the ECMWF on duration.

BTW...this Sunday looks fine.

[snow_wizard]

EPS looks great for the week after next.  I have to admit it looks like we might have 5 days of pretty hot weather.  I'm going 88 to 95 for SEA for Monday through Friday.  Maybe a tad cooler on Monday.

[BLI snowman]

On 7/20/2022 at 8:20 AM, Mr Marine Layer said:

No one gave the official date range to predict.

Kind of hard when there's no end to the heat!!

[TacomaWx]

Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

[Doinko]

47 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

Should our final forecasts include both SEA and PDX or just one of them? Also, should we include low temps? For PDX right now I'm thinking:

7/24: 92/60

7/24: 97/65

7/25: 98/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/70

7/28: 101/67

7/29: 97/66

7/30: 95/65

[Deweydog]

On 7/19/2022 at 11:59 PM, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 96/64

Tuesday: 98/67

Wednesday: 98/68

Thursday: 99/69

Friday: 97/68

Saturday: 94/67

Sunday: 88/64

[Phil]

Are we actually grading this? If so I’ll have a full SEA/PDX forecast by the deadline.

Winner gets a guarantee he/she cannot be banned or mod-previewed for the next 6 months.

[BLI snowman]

PDX ("PHX-north")

7/24: 93/65

7/25: 98/67

7/26: 101/68

7/27: 100/67

7/28: 104/72

7/29: 102/70

7/30: 98/66

7/31: 101/69

 

SEA

7/24: 83/63

7/25: 87/66

7/26: 91/66

7/27: 88/68

7/28: 93/68

7/29: 92/66

7/30: 84/63

7/31: 89/67

 

 

 

[Phil]

PDX

7/24: 92/63

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 98/67

7/27: 99/67

7/28: 100/67

7/29: 99/66

7/30: 97/64

7/31: 96/63

 

SEA

7/24: 84/61

7/25: 85/65

7/26: 90/66

7/27: 94/67

7/28: 94/66

7/29: 91/65

7/30: 89/64

7/31: 86/63

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'll have my final submission with lows tomorrow. 

SEA

7/24: 83

7/25: 85

7/26: 91

7/27: 93

7/28: 91

7/29: 92

7/30: 90

7/31: 86

PDX

7/24: 91

7/25: 94

7/26: 97

7/27: 98

7/28: 99

7/29: 99

7/30: 98

7/31: 94

[TT-SEA]

I like all these forecasts showing SEA not even getting close to 100.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like all these forecasts showing SEA not even getting close to 100.

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

Have a little fun, man. None of us will be anywhere close.  

[Deweydog]

I’m impressed by the number of entries! We’re quite the morally bankrupt group!

[Doinko]

PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 97/69

7/27: 99/69

7/28: 101/70

7/29: 100/70

7/30: 96/68

7/31: 94/65

 

[Kayla]

PDX:

7/24 93/58

7/25 98/63

7/26 101/65

7/27 103/70

7/28 99/71

7/29 99/69

7/30 94/66

7/31 93/63

 

[Phil]

Update:

PDX

7/24: 92/60

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 99/67

7/27: 99/68

7/28: 96/68

7/29: 97/67

7/30: 94/65

7/31: 91/62

 

SEA

7/24: 84/59

7/25: 85/63

7/26: 93/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 90/66

7/29: 88/64

7/30: 85/64

7/31: 83/63

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'll have my final submission with lows tomorrow. 

SEA

7/24: 83

7/25: 85

7/26: 91

7/27: 93

7/28: 91

7/29: 92

7/30: 90

7/31: 86

PDX

7/24: 91

7/25: 94

7/26: 97

7/27: 98

7/28: 99

7/29: 99

7/30: 98

7/31: 94

My final submission with lows. Good luck to all!

SEA

7/24: 82/57

7/25: 86/61

7/26: 92/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 91/65

7/29: 91/64

7/30: 86/63

7/31: 84/62

 

PDX

7/24: 92/59

7/25: 96/65

7/26: 100/67

7/27: 98/69

7/28: 98/69

7/29: 98/68

7/30: 95/68

7/31: 91/66