Jump to content
The Weather Forums

July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.


Recommended Posts

I Think having your predictions in by midnight Sunday morning sounds fair. 

  • Like 2

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was my original prediction though obviously things will change a bit in the next few days as we get closer. hopefully my final one I do at the end of the week and what actually happens is much cooler.

7/24-85/59

7-25 92/64

7-26 98/68

7-27 99/68

7-28-100/69

7-29 95/66

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA

Sun - 84F

Mon - 90F

Tues - 95F

Wed - 99F

Thu - 97F

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmm here’s what I think for SEA

Sun-86

Mon-93

Tue-99

Wed-100

Thu-100

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KSEA will record a 70F+ low

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I have no experience doing this but why not try?  PDX:

2/24: 92

2/25: 103

2/26: 106

2/27: 98

2/28: 100

2/29: 90

This seems pretty warm for February...

Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Phil pinned this topic
  • Longtimer

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

1940s style heat wave.   Much better.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

Lol unless there’s a big model change this seems pretty low. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

tumblr_454260dff7bd97b01dda5e170c185e19_3903a239_540.webp

me validating and celebrating heatwaves by forecasting them

  • Sick 1
  • Weenie 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/19/2022 at 6:23 PM, TacomaWx said:

Hmmm here’s what I think for SEA

Sun-86

Mon-93

Tue-99

Wed-100

Thu-100

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Put yo $ where yo mouth is, big guy!

  • Sick 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KPDX:

Sunday: 92

Monday: 98

Tuesday: 102

Wednesday: 101

Thursday: 101

Friday: 100

Saturday: 98

Sunday: 93

 

SEA

Sunday: 83

Monday: 87

Tuesday: 93

Wednesday: 94

Thursday: 95

Friday: 91

Saturday: 88

Sunday: 86

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Mark Nelsen mentioned a chance of it being humid because of no surface offshore flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Mark Nelsen mentioned a chance of it being humid because of no surface offshore flow.

I think mid 60’s dew points will be a good bet.

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

It was never going to hit 100 here with the upper level setup shown.  There is one or two days things look like they could get pretty toasty in that regard.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

They are showing a clear end late next week / early next weekend with that shortwave, but I'm not happy about the trend of the ECMWF on duration.

BTW...this Sunday looks fine.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS looks great for the week after next.  I have to admit it looks like we might have 5 days of pretty hot weather.  I'm going 88 to 95 for SEA for Monday through Friday.  Maybe a tad cooler on Monday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

Should our final forecasts include both SEA and PDX or just one of them? Also, should we include low temps? For PDX right now I'm thinking:

7/24: 92/60

7/24: 97/65

7/25: 98/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/70

7/28: 101/67

7/29: 97/66

7/30: 95/65

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
On 7/19/2022 at 11:59 PM, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 96/64

Tuesday: 98/67

Wednesday: 98/68

Thursday: 99/69

Friday: 97/68

Saturday: 94/67

Sunday: 88/64

image.gif

  • scream 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are we actually grading this? If so I’ll have a full SEA/PDX forecast by the deadline.

Winner gets a guarantee he/she cannot be banned or mod-previewed for the next 6 months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

PDX ("PHX-north")

7/24: 93/65

7/25: 98/67

7/26: 101/68

7/27: 100/67

7/28: 104/72

7/29: 102/70

7/30: 98/66

7/31: 101/69

 

SEA

7/24: 83/63

7/25: 87/66

7/26: 91/66

7/27: 88/68

7/28: 93/68

7/29: 92/66

7/30: 84/63

7/31: 89/67

 

 

 

  • Sick 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PDX

7/24: 92/63

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 98/67

7/27: 99/67

7/28: 100/67

7/29: 99/66

7/30: 97/64

7/31: 96/63

 

SEA

7/24: 84/61

7/25: 85/65

7/26: 90/66

7/27: 94/67

7/28: 94/66

7/29: 91/65

7/30: 89/64

7/31: 86/63

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like all these forecasts showing SEA not even getting close to 100.

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

Have a little fun, man. None of us will be anywhere close. :lol: 

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PDX:

7/24 93/58

7/25 98/63

7/26 101/65

7/27 103/70

7/28 99/71

7/29 99/69

7/30 94/66

7/31 93/63

 

Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Update:

PDX

7/24: 92/60

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 99/67

7/27: 99/68

7/28: 96/68

7/29: 97/67

7/30: 94/65

7/31: 91/62

 

SEA

7/24: 84/59

7/25: 85/63

7/26: 93/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 90/66

7/29: 88/64

7/30: 85/64

7/31: 83/63

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'll have my final submission with lows tomorrow. 

SEA

7/24: 83

7/25: 85

7/26: 91

7/27: 93

7/28: 91

7/29: 92

7/30: 90

7/31: 86

PDX

7/24: 91

7/25: 94

7/26: 97

7/27: 98

7/28: 99

7/29: 99

7/30: 98

7/31: 94

My final submission with lows. Good luck to all!

SEA

7/24: 82/57

7/25: 86/61

7/26: 92/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 91/65

7/29: 91/64

7/30: 86/63

7/31: 84/62

 

PDX

7/24: 92/59

7/25: 96/65

7/26: 100/67

7/27: 98/69

7/28: 98/69

7/29: 98/68

7/30: 95/68

7/31: 91/66

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...