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July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.


TacomaWx

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This was my original prediction though obviously things will change a bit in the next few days as we get closer. hopefully my final one I do at the end of the week and what actually happens is much cooler.

7/24-85/59

7-25 92/64

7-26 98/68

7-27 99/68

7-28-100/69

7-29 95/66

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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SEA

Sun - 84F

Mon - 90F

Tues - 95F

Wed - 99F

Thu - 97F

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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KSEA will record a 70F+ low

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I have no experience doing this but why not try?  PDX:

2/24: 92

2/25: 103

2/26: 106

2/27: 98

2/28: 100

2/29: 90

This seems pretty warm for February...

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

1940s style heat wave.   Much better.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

Lol unless there’s a big model change this seems pretty low. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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tumblr_454260dff7bd97b01dda5e170c185e19_3903a239_540.webp

me validating and celebrating heatwaves by forecasting them

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  • Weenie 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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On 7/19/2022 at 6:23 PM, TacomaWx said:

Hmmm here’s what I think for SEA

Sun-86

Mon-93

Tue-99

Wed-100

Thu-100

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 hours ago, rsktkr said:

This thread will die in a couple of days because bust:

PDX:

Sun - 88

Mon - 91

Tue - 92

Wed - 90

Thu - 89

Fri - 89

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Put yo $ where yo mouth is, big guy!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think PDX will get hotter than that, but I think this is being overblown.  The 500mb pattern never gets THAT impressive and surface gradients are onshore most of the time.

Mark Nelsen mentioned a chance of it being humid because of no surface offshore flow.

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I will bet some $$ that is too high.

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

It was never going to hit 100 here with the upper level setup shown.  There is one or two days things look like they could get pretty toasty in that regard.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Those were based on runs from a couple days ago now. Obviously gonna do my real prediction Saturday night. The way the overnight runs turned out maybe close to 100 still (don’t think we see 100) …and we might even have to extend the contest unfortunately. 

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

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57 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the models aren't showing a clear end to the heatwave yet which is worrying. Maybe Sunday to Sunday?

They are showing a clear end late next week / early next weekend with that shortwave, but I'm not happy about the trend of the ECMWF on duration.

BTW...this Sunday looks fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EPS looks great for the week after next.  I have to admit it looks like we might have 5 days of pretty hot weather.  I'm going 88 to 95 for SEA for Monday through Friday.  Maybe a tad cooler on Monday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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47 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Here’s kinda where I’m at tonight…we will see where we’re at in 48 hours. 
 Tacoma 

7/24 87/60

7/25 90/61

7/26 94/64

7/27 96/65

7/28 94/65

7/29 90/64

SEA

7/24 89/62

7/25 91/65

7/26 95/66

7/27 97/66

7/28 95/66

7/29 92/65

Should our final forecasts include both SEA and PDX or just one of them? Also, should we include low temps? For PDX right now I'm thinking:

7/24: 92/60

7/24: 97/65

7/25: 98/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/70

7/28: 101/67

7/29: 97/66

7/30: 95/65

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On 7/19/2022 at 11:59 PM, Deweydog said:

KPDX:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 100/65

Tuesday: 102/70

Wednesday: 101/69

Thursday: 96/69

Friyay: 93/65

Saturday: 87/62

Sunday: 86/62

Monday (August!): 61/39

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 96/64

Tuesday: 98/67

Wednesday: 98/68

Thursday: 99/69

Friday: 97/68

Saturday: 94/67

Sunday: 88/64

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Are we actually grading this? If so I’ll have a full SEA/PDX forecast by the deadline.

Winner gets a guarantee he/she cannot be banned or mod-previewed for the next 6 months.

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PDX

7/24: 92/63

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 98/67

7/27: 99/67

7/28: 100/67

7/29: 99/66

7/30: 97/64

7/31: 96/63

 

SEA

7/24: 84/61

7/25: 85/65

7/26: 90/66

7/27: 94/67

7/28: 94/66

7/29: 91/65

7/30: 89/64

7/31: 86/63

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