December Observations and Discussions

[Geos]

Starting to snow in north central IL this evening. 37° and falling here.

[james1976]

Snow showers here and the ground is a bit white. Snow showers during the afternoon as well. Good way to start off meteorological winter!

PS: Season snowfall total is pushing 13" already.

[Geos]

34° and moderate snow here.

[OKwx2k4]

The OK mesonet is complete BS now. There has been a hard frost on here since 9:00 pm and it still has me at 36°. Absolute sh*t.

[OKwx2k4]

There are a few posters just trying to get a rise of people. It's time to move on. We get it. You believe it is going to be warm, others cold. Big deal and move on. This is just for fun so lets just relax.

This is the reason I have kept my thoughts to myself the past week or so. I didn't join here to argue with idiots who provide little to no intelligent analysis as to why they think the way they do. I came to discuss the weather and provide my opinion on it. I've stated my opinions for December. I believe they'll hold water at the end of the month and I'm going to leave it there. Verification on January 1 and moving on from there. I still think an 09-10 and 77-78 hybrid is possible from DEC-FEB and I'll stand there til proven otherwise.

[westMJim]

This is the reason I have kept my thoughts to myself the past week or so. I didn't join here to argue with idiots who provide little to no intelligent analysis as to why they think the way they do. I came to discuss the weather and provide my opinion on it. I've stated my opinions for December. I believe they'll hold water at the end of the month and I'm going to leave it there. Verification on January 1 and moving on from there. I still think an 09-10 and 77-78 hybrid is possible from DEC-FEB and I'll stand there til proven otherwise.

I like how you will stand by your opinion.  Keep up with that line of thinking.

[westMJim]

Here is a brief summary of November in west Michigan from the NWS.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/November2015ClimateStatistics

Here is Norther Lower Michigan’s summary

http://www.weather.gov/apx/monthlyclimate_november2015

November 2015 will go down as one of the warmest Novembers in Michigan recorded history. Now we will sit back and see how December will play out!

[westMJim]

And here is the summary for the fall season as a whole

Norther lower

http://www.weather.gov/apx/seasonalclimate_fall2015

and western lower

http://www.weather.gov/grr/Fall2015ClimateStatistics

Will have to look back and see how past winters pan out after a warm fall season.

[OKwx2k4]

I like how you will stand by your opinion. Keep up with that line of thinking.

Thank you. I appreciate that. I want people to understand also that I'm not that way out of stubbornness or arrogance at all. It is more out of a desire to learn and improve. If I'm wrong I am more than man enough to accept it and learn from it but you can't measure a moving target. If I change positions or viewpoints every 2 days then I'm not really leaving a solid target to measure from and improve. I admire the way that the folks that see things differently than I do stand pretty solid with their thoughts, I just don't care for the way they've presented them or lack of ways they've presented them. That's all. Didn't come to rant. Sorry! Weather on!

[gosaints]

Thank you. I appreciate that. I want people to understand also that I'm not that way out of stubbornness or arrogance at all. It is more out of a desire to learn and improve. If I'm wrong I am more than man enough to accept it and learn from it but you can't measure a moving target. If I change positions or viewpoints every 2 days then I'm not really leaving a solid target to measure from and improve. I admire the way that the folks that see things differently than I do stand pretty solid with their thoughts, I just don't care for the way they've presented them or lack of ways they've presented them. That's all. Didn't come to rant. Sorry! Weather on!

Raging AO NAO and positive EPO for the foreseeable future plus the influence of nino should kick in.....

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, when that storm hit, we both talked about how if it cycled through, it would bring on a multi-day LES even in MI.  00z GFS just showed it.  Gulf energy phasing with northern piece...bombing out.  Not getting excited, but this was a main feature in this cycle period.

 

Some quotes from the November 11-13th storm thread..

 

James1976      "This is gonna be a windy event with cold rain. This would be an all out blizzard if it was December!"

 

Iowa2015     "Man if this were December this be a all out blizzard with amazing snow totals."

 

 

Tom    "What a way to kick off this season with a storm that is producing Blizzard Warnings for NE CO/NW KS...probably a sign of things to come down the road.  It's hard to ignore."

[Maxim]

This is the reason I have kept my thoughts to myself the past week or so. I didn't join here to argue with idiots who provide little to no intelligent analysis as to why they think the way they do. I came to discuss the weather and provide my opinion on it. I've stated my opinions for December. I believe they'll hold water at the end of the month and I'm going to leave it there. Verification on January 1 and moving on from there. I still think an 09-10 and 77-78 hybrid is possible from DEC-FEB and I'll stand there til proven otherwise.

good luck with your -2 departures that you stated most of the subforum would see.

[Maxim]

Raging AO NAO and positive EPO for the foreseeable future plus the influence of nino should kick in.....

[gosaints]

Severe???http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120212/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[Maxim]

My goodness is that a ginormous trough over the western CONUS on the EURO OP...

[GDR]

[james1976]

Euro now showing a 985mb low in the plains? Nice. Euro and GFS are both agreeing on a system in that time frame.

[Geos]

All kinds of changes in the models. With the SOI rising it will be interesting to see how quickly the models latch onto the changes.

 

West Coast ridge appearing mid month.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

That is a huge trough on the Euro hour 240.  What could that bring in the middle of December?  

[Maxim]

That is a huge trough on the Euro hour 240.  What could that bring in the middle of December?

 

Near record warmth for the eastern half of the nation possibly. Could see a big storm system as well.

[Geos]

First in the west then it nudges eastward.

 

 

GRR 

 

 

.WEEK TWO FORECAST...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS OF A BIG CHANGE
IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND (SAT THE 12TH OF
DECEMBER). A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SIBERIA HEADS
EAST AND BRINGS ONE OF THOSE EAST ASIAN JET FEATURES OVER KOREA
THURSDAY (THIS WEEK) WITH WINDS A JET STREAM LEVELS IN THE 170 KNOT
TO 190 KNOT RANGE. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SO
THERE IS MODEL CONSISTENCE FOR THIS FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO
MOVE EAST BUT REACHES THE DATELINE BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS OF 170 TO
190 KNOTS AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL. AS THIS JET CORE REACHES THE WEST
COAST IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME IT PUMPS UP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HEAD
IF IT (KEEPS IT WARM AND DRY HERE). WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING TO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS AFTER IT COMES ON SHORE IN THE THU/FRI TIME
FRAME A LARGE UPPER RIDGE (SEEN ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS) BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL FORCE A CONSOLIDATION OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. WHICH MEANS A LARGE SCALE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE A
STORMY PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (BUT STILL WARM BUT RATHER
WET). JUST BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE
WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF COLD AIR AND SNOWY WEATHER.

 

[gosaints]

So refreshing to see a trough like this in the winter and have chance at a real storm that wont pull down the north pole behind it.

[OKwx2k4]

All kinds of changes in the models. With the SOI rising it will be interesting to see how quickly the models latch onto the changes.

 

West Coast ridge appearing mid month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120212/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_51.png

I like where that's headed.

[gosaints]

If a trough this strong is only going to bring down 850 temps of this caliber bring it on.....

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120212/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

[jaster220]

good luck with your -2 departures that you stated most of the subforum would see.

 

Thanks, but did you read my post? Read again more closely this time. It says SWMI, that's a very small portion of this Sub. But, if you want to expand my call, that's yours to own.

[Geos]

If a trough this strong is only going to bring down 850 temps of this caliber bring it on.....

 

 

 

A well placed strong low rocketing up into the Canadian arctic can really do wonders in rearranging the pattern, pulling down cold air, and even weakening the polar vortex.

[jaster220]

A well placed strong low rocketing up into the Canadian arctic can really do wonders in rearranging the pattern, pulling down cold air, and even weakening the polar vortex.

 

And by the 17th, there's some of that being advertised. Does not look like a boring 2nd half. Kinda like a Lion's game/season - all the action to finish.

[OKwx2k4]

And by the 17th, there's some of that being advertised. Does not look like a boring 2nd half. Kinda like a Lion's game/season - all the action to finish.

Yup. Mid-month is game time. Also, given euro biases have to assume all major players are shifted a little farther east as time goes. It's already in the processes of disagreeing with its own monthlies which I expected.

[Maxim]

Thanks, but did you read my post? Read again more closely this time. It says SWMI, that's a very small portion of this Sub. But, if you want to expand my call, that's yours to own.

I was quoting Okwx2k4...

[OKwx2k4]

I was quoting Okwx2k4...

If you're going to quote me, actually quote me so it can be read the way it was written. Thanks.

[james1976]

That looks massive! Nice to see some offices ALREADY talking about it.

[Tom]

A well placed strong low rocketing up into the Canadian arctic can really do wonders in rearranging the pattern, pulling down cold air, and even weakening the polar vortex.

Well said, in fact, today's 12z suite run of the GFS/EURO/GGEM all show a -AO developing on the 12th.  We will certainly keep on eye on a SE shift in the large system that is being forecast on the 11th/12th.  BTW, it's right on schedule and was predictable given the pattern! I love when a pattern comes together...don't you???

 

17th, there's some of that being advertised. Does not look like a boring 2nd half. Kinda like a Lion's game/season - all the action to finish.

 

It is becoming more evident that hemispheric blocking is going to setup over the next 10+ days...along with a solid SE ridge signal (-PNA) this pattern is going to be conducive for a very stormy/colder regime for the west/central CONUS.

 

 

And by the 17th, there's some of that being advertised. Does not look like a boring 2nd half. Kinda like a Lion's game/season - all the action to finish.

Amen!  Month-long torch is out of the question, IMO.

 

SOI continues the sudden crash...

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 02 Dec 2015

Average for last 30 days -4.80

Average for last 90 days -14.40

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -33.68

 

[gosaints]

To expect a wall to wall torch would unrealistic. Overall the month will most likely be a torch. Definite windows for storms with unseasonable warmth to go with it

[Tom]

To expect a wall to wall torch would unrealistic. Overall the month will most likely be a torch. Definite windows for storms with unseasonable warmth to go with it

Most likely it will be from the Appalachians and points East that will torch the most this month..  Overall storm track will be west of the Appalachians with a persistent SE ridge after Dec 10th which would suggest more rain than snow for that part of the CONUS.

 

I really think your positive departures will be erased significantly by months end after this 10/11 day torch coming.

[gosaints]

If the positive departures get erased round here I wont post for a month

[Maxim]

If the positive departures get erased round here I wont post for a month

JB says so, so he must be right... 

[Tom]

JB says so, so he must be right... 

Ouch!  BTW, JB absolutely NEVER talks about the cyclical nature of the LRC or Jim Flower's 30-day cycle.  How can you say such a thing?  There are points which he does mention that I do take into consideration.  However, this month, I do not agree with him that the trough will advance towards the East Coast.  Jan/Feb different story.  Now, with all joking aside, maybe your "warm" bias should be checked at the door because you can obviously see where this pattern is heading.

[gosaints]

Ouch! BTW, JB absolutely NEVER talks about the cyclical nature of the LRC or Jim Flower's 30-day cycle. How can you say such a thing? There are points which he does mention that I do take into consideration. However, this month, I do not agree with him that the trough will advance towards the East Coast. Jan/Feb different story. Now, with all joking aside, maybe your "warm" bias should be checked at the door because you can obviously see where this pattern is heading.

So you think we lock into a below average temp pattern?

[Andrew NE]

If the positive departures get erased round here I wont post for a month

[Andrew NE]

Not likely to erase positive departures but if it does could you pledge not to post for 3 months?? That would be great.