December Observations and Discussions

[GDR]

We might as well just skip winter.

[Geos]

That is still above normal

 

 

At least the core of the warmth shifts off to the north and east.

Snowiest winters can be the warmer of winters. Food for thought.

 

[gosaints]

GEOS totally agree.  We are way better have with average to slightly above average temps if we want a real snowy winter here.  

[Maxim]

Extreme cold is the worst. Almost always leads to supression.

[GDR]

Warmer means less money on heating bills

[Tom]

12z Euro looks very disorganized, but one thing is certain, it's definitely starting to hone in on a -AO/NAO pattern around the 12th and the EPO tanking more towards neutral by then as well.

 

It's funny, no warmth on the Euro in the extended and it's quiet by the "warm" singin' boys.

[winterfreak]

Gary over at weather2020 released his winter forecast. It's an interesting read. Says we're headed into a thirty stretch of stormy weather in the Plains/Lakes. Temps will be mild for most of the country, with the exception being the Southwest. Believes that the AO and NAO will stay neutral or positive for most of the winter. When it does dip is when our best chances for widespread snow will be. States we'll have one artic outbreak at best but none like we've experience over the last couple of years. If you don't subscribe to his site already I highly recommend it.

[gosaints]

12z Euro looks very disorganized, but one thing is certain, it's definitely starting to hone in on a -AO/NAO pattern around the 12th and the EPO tanking more towards neutral by then as well.

 

It's funny, no warmth on the Euro in the extended and it's quiet by the "warm" singin' boys.

It will be back... As I have repeated.  There will be cool stretches..... Followed by more above normal.

 

We ended november on a cool stretch as well.

[Tom]

I have been waiting to post on this, but now I'm seeing the Euro show clear signs of rising heights directly over the Pole.  Over the last few days, the Euro begin to show signs that a building area of HP to set up around the 8th and beyond.  I'll show you on maps below what is going to happen over the next 5 days.

 

Current conditions over the North Pole are split, one being a piece of the PV to the east of Greenland and a weak HP just north of Eurasia.  

 

In 4 days, the HP expands over the Pole and kicks out the PV farther to the east of Greenland to just east of Iceland.  Meanwhile, NW NAMER begins to load up with arctic air and the evolution of the pattern is setting up.

 

By Day 8, HP over the Pole is in full control and is becoming stronger.  Day 10, it is strengthening even more.  We'll see how this all evolves over the coming 10 days but it is certainly arranging the pattern in the mid-latitudes towards some fun and games.

[Tom]

It will be back... As I have repeated.  There will be cool stretches..... Followed by more above normal.

 

We ended november on a cool stretch as well.

That was November, this is now December.  Same drivers then, will have a different impact this month.  I've seen this before, we'll see how it turns out now.

[Geos]

Extreme cold is the worst. Almost always leads to supression.

 

Winter of 2002-2003 was a prime example of that - especially the back 2/3rd's of winter. Most of the snow systems traveled off to the east and south. I remember days of highs in the teens with nothing more than a inch of crust on the ground, sometimes straight bare ground.

[gosaints]

Gary over at weather2020 released his winter forecast. It's an interesting read. Says we're headed into a thirty stretch of stormy weather in the Plains/Lakes. Temps will be mild for most of the country, with the exception being the Southwest. Believes that the AO and NAO will stay neutral or positive for most of the winter. When it does dip is when our best chances for widespread snow will be. States we'll have one artic outbreak at best but none like we've experience over the last couple of years. If you don't subscribe to his site already I highly recommend it.

Not another met that thinks the winter as a hole will be above average...

[gosaints]

That was November, this is now December.  Same drivers then, will have a different impact this month.  I've seen this before, we'll see how it turns out now.

Still waiting on the nino release as well.

[OKwx2k4]

I have been waiting to post on this, but now I'm seeing the Euro show clear signs of rising heights directly over the Pole. Over the last few days, the Euro begin to show signs that a building area of HP to set up around the 8th and beyond. I'll show you on maps below what is going to happen over the next 5 days.

 

Current conditions over the North Pole are split, one being a piece of the PV to the east of Greenland and a weak HP just north of Eurasia.

 

In 4 days, the HP expands over the Pole and kicks out the PV farther to the east of Greenland to just east of Iceland. Meanwhile, NW NAMER begins to load up with arctic air and the evolution of the pattern is setting up.

 

By Day 8, HP over the Pole is in full control and is becoming stronger. Day 10, it is strengthening even more. We'll see how this all evolves over the coming 10 days but it is certainly arranging the pattern in the mid-latitudes towards some fun and games.

Lots of things are looking great for the latter half of December. Getting better down my way also.

[winterfreak]

Not another met that thinks the winter as a hole will be above average...

You could've just ignored the post. Just thought I'd share a respected mets opinion. Like I said he goes much more in depth on his website.

[gosaints]

You could've just ignored the post. Just thought I'd share a respected mets opinion. Like I said he goes much more in depth on his website.

i agree with him

[Geos]

That trough is nuts!

 

 

High over the pole, strong low over Hudson Bay. And all the high pressure over the northern Pacific.

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's pretty incredible!

[Iowa2015]

18Z Still looking on the warm side for the 12-14th storm Rain with plunging temperatures behind the storm with extremely limited moisture by the time cold arrives Looking cold n mostly dry for the mid December cold snap

[Tom]

18Z Still looking on the warm side for the 12-14th storm Rain with plunging temperatures behind the storm with extremely limited moisture by the time cold arrives Looking cold n mostly dry for the mid December cold snap

You can't expect to get details this far out on a system who's energy is yet to even cross the Pacific ocean.  If it turns out to be a dynamic storm, which it was back on November 11th-13th, it will generate enough cold air on its own to produce snow.  I'd wait till 2-3 days out and not worry about it showing more rain, than snow now.  On top of that, during this period the AO/NAO is forecast to be about neutral and heading negative which is very important.  In early November, those teleconnections were sky high....very different and I believe will produce a different result.  We'll see.

[Iowa2015]

Taking with a grain of salt right now considering it's still in lala land. This time next week we should have a good idea if this will be a Snow producer.

[james1976]

GFS showing 3 potential systems from the 12th on. Yup, lala land but something to watch. More importantly, the pattern is set to change after 10 days of spring weather.
That's some crazy stuff on the Euro you guys posted.

[jaster220]

That's pretty incredible!

 

And would surely be lighting up the lakes around MI with a push of cold on its heals. I don't think this is a pattern where the NW flow sets up for days on end, so more likely a fairly short (but perhaps intense) window of LES would be the case. We in SWMI make out best with a low baro. The added bouyancy of the air adds lift that regions further north get via topography. We also don't get that convergence factor like downwind of Lk. Erie so a departing strong Low is my fave option for a true LES "storm". The Dec '09 bliz that closed off early brought 9 inches all the way to mby 80 miles from Lk. Michigan.

[jaster220]

GFS showing 3 potential systems from the 12th on. Yup, lala land but something to watch. More importantly, the pattern is set to change after 10 days of spring weather.

That's some crazy stuff on the Euro you guys posted.

 

What's more crazy about it exactly? Guess I missed your point.

[james1976]

What's more crazy about it exactly? Guess I missed your point.

What Geos posted above. Massive trough. And the stuff Tom posted. The potential is big to me. That's my point.

[jaster220]

What Geos posted above. Massive trough. And the stuff Tom posted. The potential is big to me. That's my point.

 

Ah, k. I heard some of the GEFS members are off the charts with bombs but lacking a true cold connection fwiw. May just be the models are still fumbling the ball with all the parts in motion at that timeframe.

[bud2380]

Here are some of the Euro members 15 day snow forecast.  Some of them showing some snow. Better than it looked a few days ago, when almost none showed any snow in the long terms for the midwest. 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015120312/mc/eps_snow_25_mc_61.png

[bud2380]

And the control run.

 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015120312/mc/eps_snow_c_mc_61.png

[Maxim]

We'll see how it trends throughout the month. But so far, this doesn't look promising for a cold pattern next month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151203.201601.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take the hour 300 18z GFS please. A ton of snow from OK into AR and MO

[CentralNebWeather]

Bud don't see the maps. Can you repost? Thanks

[westMJim]

I will be soon leaving for Bay City, will be there for a day then back here tomorrow. On the weather front it looks to be a rather uneventful 10 days or more. You know the more I look into it the more this winter reminds me of the winter of 1931/32.  Here in Grand Rapids September 1931 was +6.2.°  this year it was +4.4 in 1931 October was +4.8° this year it was a cooler +1.1° November 1931 was +7.5° this November was +5.4° in 1931 December was +6.6° with 7.1” of snow.  January 1932 was -9.8° with 3.2” of snow. February was +5.0° with 5.2” of snow and I will add March (because that was the coldest compared to average and snowiest month of that winter)    -7.2° and 25.” of snow fell. On a side note since I moved to Grand Rapids in 1984 the only months that have not set new snow fall records are March (current record 36” set in 1965, April current record 18.6” set in 1961, May current record 5.5” set in 1923 and October current record 8.4” set in 1967 the only one of the records that have not been set in my life time in the May 1923 record) my guess the next one to be broken will be the March record. But bottom line is could this winter be like the one of 1931/32!

[Iowa2015]

It's still lala land not taking it seriously But even the cold not as cold right now. Interested to see how this all plays out end of next week into next weekend we should have a good idea.

[WBadgersW]

Roads were frosty/icey this morning. I live at the bottem of a hill where three cars were lined up because they couldn't make it up.

[jaster220]

It's still lala land not taking it seriously But even the cold not as cold right now. Interested to see how this all plays out end of next week into next weekend we should have a good idea.

 

Well, the repeating theme of a strong trough in the central CONUS has not failed to deliver some winter fun to some area of the plains this autumn. It would be a weird departure from that pattern if somehow we get this in December and it doesn't. As Tom pointed out, the earlier system doled out some winter fun even with sky-high AO/NAO indices when it shouldn't have. If we can see those indices going into at least neutral territory, that could help things come together better for your region at least. Not sure when we will score again clear over here in SMI tbh?

[jaster220]

I'll take the hour 300 18z GFS please. A ton of snow from OK into AR and MO

 

Post pls..

[Tom]

00z Euro out of nowhere spins up a strong 988mb Cutter from KC/N MO/S WI next Fri/Sat.  No real cold air to work with right now.  This storm is on the heels of a hemispheric pattern change as the Euro/GFS continue to show the AO tank as well as the NAO around the 11th/12th.

 

00z EPS showing some big hitters in the Plains/Midwest over the next 2 weeks.

 

Something is brewing over Barents-Kara Seas/Scandinavia.  For those who read that article I posted from Dr. Judan Cohen, this is the region where they were paying attn to for mid/late December.  The reason being, there is below normal ice near the Barents-Kara seas.

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure9ad.png

 

 

 

 In addition based on some recent research low Arctic sea ice especially in the Barents-Kara seas favors a negative winter AO

 

Notice what happens over the last 5 days in this region...explosive 30mb warming that seems to be trying to poke into the Arctic and over the Pole.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

These are some very interesting trends and something that is noteworthy as we move deeper into Winter.

 

 

[Tom]

This is a cool video showing the volcanic eruption of Mt Etna in Sicily Italy...

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mount-etna-erupts-dirty-thunderstorm_56613f77e4b072e9d1c59b9b

 

 

 

Might be to late in the season, but I know that if volcanic ash enters parts of the upper atmosphere it blocks the amount of UV rays and actually cools the northern hemisphere.  This looks to be a small event though.  Prob won't have much effect in the northern latitudes this winter season.

[OKwx2k4]

Post pls..

I couldn't post it from my phone. I've tried to post images, never works.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, if those 2 areas of strat warming can converge then they should erupt through the arctic. I would bet at this time that they will accomplish that.