December Observations and Discussions

[gosaints]

Interesting look...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120412/gfs_z500a_us_45.png

[Geos]

Too bad that AO wasn't dropping a little earlier. That 12th-13th system would have a better shot at becoming a snowstorm for some members here.

 

It was very frosty here this morning. Sun feels good today.

[gosaints]

Too bad that AO wasn't dropping a little earlier. That 12th-13th system would have a better shot at becoming a snowstorm for some members here.

 

It was very frosty here this morning. Sun feels good today.

Ya that amount of energy is loaded with potential

[Tom]

TBH, I wouldn't mind the first storm to take a more northern track so it can lay down a big swath of snow in the northern Plains/Southern Canada and fill up those snow holes.  There is going to be a west/east storm train once this pattern revs up mid month and plenty more chances of snow for most of our members once the blocking rocks.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201512/nsm_depth_2015120405_National.jpg

 

The cold air dome won't have time to warm and bodes well to supply future storm systems with cold air down the road.  All in all, I am please where this pattern is heading and its no surprise here as ridging will continue to pull farther north/east and the jet does its dirty work cutting underneath .  Seems like all the variables are coming together, including, minor SSW that is showing signs of development...which was always an "iffy" variable.

[gosaints]

Up to 45 here already today.  Should be some decent overachieving today

[Maxim]

GFS showing something that could break records late next week.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a 986mb bomb in W KS Day 9...here we go!

[Tom]

First run we see the potential of this storm.  Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast!  Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again???

[Tom]

Another system digs farther south into the 4 corners region right on its heels.  Pattern is loaded up...its about time...this time, blocking will be locked and ready to rock!

[gosaints]

Oh good some cold rain.  Not much to stop that thing from cutting

[Tom]

Oh good some cold rain.  Not much to stop that thing from cutting

Yup, that's what this first storm is looking like and I don't expect snows out this way.  This has the Plains and maybe parts of the Midwest written all over it.  Once this storm departs, that's when we out here stand a better chance at snow systems.

[gosaints]

GEFS has a nice el nino look to it

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015120412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=160

 

If one plays scrolls through this the influence of nino is obvious

[CentralNebWeather]

First run we see the potential of this storm.  Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast!  Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again???

Like usual Tom you have me excited to start tracking again next week.  Love the potential of this pattern for my region of Central Nebraska.  We have actually warmed to 50 at 1:15 PM.  Snow on the north side of buildings and houses and in piles.  I assume by next week it will all be gone but hoping we can pile it up thereafter.

[Tom]

Haven't seen a 500mb pattern like this all season long where we have a classic banana "hook" of blocking over the top from NW NAMER across into Eastern Canada.  Meanwhile, a parade of systems cross the Pacific and the Aleutian Low "hands off" storms underneath into the west coast.  Great pattern for storms/cold for the snow lovers out there.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120412/ecmwf_mslpa_sd_nhem_11.png

 

That intensifying 1045mb HP just north of Hudson Bay may "push" on the overall track of the storm late next weekend and trend it from cutting to soon, but I don't think its a Lakes special.

[Maxim]

over amplified

[GDR]

Way over done

[Tom]

over amplified

 

 

Way over done

 

 

Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct???  Might not be so smart.  This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise???  Reverse Psychology....???  

[Maxim]

Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct???  Might not be so smart.  This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise???  Reverse Psychology....???  

I was mainly referring to the 500 mb pattern and heights.

[james1976]

Man, this pattern is looking interesting. Even though its quiet for the next week, we will be able to track this pattern shaping up. Not boring at all! GFS has a storm parade starting next weekend.

[Tom]

I was mainly referring to the 500 mb pattern and heights.

Gotcha...keep note, that as we head deeper into Winter towards Feb...the jet has been continuously intensifying since early Autumn and doesn't begin to weaken until late Jan/early Feb.  Highly amplifying patterns going forward is the way to go, IMO.  Crashing SOI, Blocking, SSW all will play major roles to what happens as we move along.

[GDR]

[NEJeremy]

Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct???  Might not be so smart.  This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise???  Reverse Psychology....???  

They're saying it just to be negative Nancy's.

[centralweather44]

First run we see the potential of this storm. Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast! Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again???

Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter.

[Tom]

Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter.

Need the blocking to be in place at the right time.  Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend regarding teleconnections.

[NEJeremy]

Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter.

I think that was November 11th if I remember right?! So 30 days would be pretty spot on

[GDR]

Cold rain! I love it.

[Tom]

18z GFS with a 986mb SLP near C WI on the 13th...let the model watching begin!

[winterfreak]

If we have to rely on transient cold shots for these storm to produce snow my area is screwed.

[Geos]

Could hold potential later down the road.

 

 

Over achieved today with it hitting 49°.

[Tom]

Could hold potential later down the road.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_44.png

 

Over achieved today with it hitting 49°.

 

This is the next system in the cycling pattern that produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE on Nov 16th/17th.  It was another dynamic storm system that tapped tons of gulf moisture.  Once the first storm departs, this one will eventually track farther south.

[Niko]

This is the next system in the cycling pattern that produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE on Nov 16th/17th.  It was another dynamic storm system that tapped tons of gulf moisture.  Once the first storm departs, this one will eventually track farther south.

Hmm??!! Is that snow headed for SEMI? It looks like a potent system.

[Niko]

Today felt like October. I saw people in their shorts jogging and start thinking to myself...is this really December?! It was nice though. Believe it or not, I still have small piles of snow from November's snowstorm couple of weeks ago.

[GDR]

[OKwx2k4]

I'd take that storm suppressed south into my area.

[GDR]

I'd take that storm suppressed south into my area.

will give it to you

[james1976]

18z GFS is loaded up with juicy systems. Bring it!

[ingyball]

I don't think it got above 32 here in Columbus, if it did it was between the NWS recordings. Clouds lasted a lot longer than expected.

[Geos]

I don't think it got above 32 here in Columbus, if it did it was between the NWS recordings. Clouds lasted a lot longer than expected.

 

This are was socked in with clouds yesterday and only reached the mid 30s. This time of year you need the sun or a strong southerly wind to warm up.

[Geos]

Seeing some more Arctic looking air moving southward at 240 hours on the 0z GFS.

 

Definitely some colder air at and after day 10.

 

 

[GDR]