December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[High Desert Mat]

0z was sweet. Looks like the ridge is in sweet spot and pretty much stays there for awhile. A little bit more of amplification and were all in business. Best run yet from what I can see, from Saturday -Sunday on.

[Deweydog]

Model talk has to be "vindicated"? What are we, the Seattle NWS?

 

Besides, part of that talk was talking about how unlikely what the 18z GFS was showing would actually happen.

I was just impressed you slummed it with us weenies and looked past 168 hours. Christmas is the season of miracles!

[Front Ranger]

I take it the 0z was not good...

 

It was far different from the 18z in the mid range. Still quite promising at times beyond day 6.

 

One has to look at the GFS as purely entertainment these days. Mostly comedic. As dewey alluded, the run to run non-consistency has been laughable.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z SNOW ALERT! and before day 10...

Massive 929mb bomb off Kamchatka into Bering Sea sets up the pattern. Ridge amplifies, then organizes, then really looks good at day 8-10. Quite close to being very good!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120800/gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120800/gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

[TT-SEA]

It was far different from the 18z in the mid range. Still quite promising at times beyond day 6.

 

One has to look at the GFS as purely entertainment these days. Mostly comedic. As dewey alluded, the run to run non-consistency has been laughable.

 

 

Its been crazy bad.   I have no idea what will happen... just assume it will rain for at least another week.

 

I have actually stopped looking at the details.   Giving me a headache... changing so much on every run.

[Front Ranger]

I was just impressed you slummed it with us weenies and looked past 168 hours. Christmas is the season of miracles!

 

Yep, I was bored. But the map I posted was hour 153. I draw the line on posting GFS maps past hour 168.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep, I was bored. But the map I posted was hour 153. I draw the line on posting GFS maps past hour 168.

But... But... all the good stuff is after FCST HR 300...

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good run to run consistency on some kind of a cold snap this weekend and much of next week.  Some pretty good windows for possible lowland snowfall in there.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty good run to run consistency on some kind of a cold snap this weekend and much of next week.  Some pretty good windows for possible lowland snowfall in there.

 

 

Nothing has been consistent.   

[TT-SEA]

Here is the low that was going to be coming into southern OR on Thursday...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.72.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Here is the low that was going to be coming into southern OR on Thursday...

What model showed it that far South?

 

WRF weakens it and brings it in at the mouth of the Columbia anyway.

[TT-SEA]

What model showed it that far South?

 

WRF weakens it and brings it in at the mouth of the Columbia anyway.

 

 

WRF did at one point (3 days ago).   So did the Canadian.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120412/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

What model showed it that far South?

 

WRF weakens it and brings it in at the mouth of the Columbia anyway.

I can't even think of a situation where that kind of scenario verified. Doesn't mean it can't happen but typically you can come up with some kind of analog.

[snow_wizard]

I just signed up for Weather Bell to help navigate through what will hopefully be a fun period coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Some pretty crazy tracks being depicted on some of the low pressure systems over the next several days.  Should be some fun surprises.

[TT-SEA]

That was 6 model runs ago? Run-to-run consistency would mean it has shown this the past few runs... Not 6 runs ago. That's asking quite a bit from the models especially in an active, dynamic pattern like this where a small change has big implications. For a real comparison here is the 12z run today and the 00z run last night. Looks pretty close/consistent to me when compared to 00z run tonight. I know you like to prove Jim wrong but at least be fair.

 

Well then we should stop posting maps beyond 96 hours.  Because at 144 hours they are complete garbage!    

[snow_wizard]

Looks great, I love that Low sliding down the coast. As of now it looks like it will be cold enough for snow down to the valley floor, maybe even the beaches will score.

 

 

 

The track of that low sucks for the Puget sound region, but a small change could remedy that very easily.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles improved small, tiny, almost midget like toddler steps. Portland down to about -4c, Seattle -5c with several colder members.

[TT-SEA]

Some pretty crazy tracks being depicted on some of the low pressure systems over the next several days.  Should be some fun surprises.

 

 

What are we talking about here?   Wind?

 

Fun surprises from you usually means a chance of snow somewhere below 1,500 feet.

 

That is not going to be happening this week.  

[TT-SEA]

How dare we post weather model maps past 96 hours! On a weather forum no less! The nerve...

 

 

That was tongue-in-cheek of course.   More of a rip on the models than anything else.  

[TT-SEA]

The track of that low sucks for the Puget sound region, but a small change could remedy that very easily.

 

 

Those maps are at 240 hours.

 

Are you actually talking about fine tuning the track?   

[Deweydog]

Patio weather out there.

 

Hard to believe it's going to be snowing with temps falling through the 20's next week or three years from now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Patio weather out there.

 

Hard to believe it's going to be snowing with temps falling through the 20's next week or three years from now.

12z runs tomorrow might narrow that down to 7-10 days to 2 years, maybe even 1 1/2.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, lots of time for it to change.

 

Or be 500 miles to the north... or more likely not there at all.     The actual 500mb pattern in 240 hours will be completely different than what the models are showing right now at 240 hours.

 

This analysis of specific low placements and 'time for it to change' is just silly at that range... just like this post having to explain that fact.  

[Front Ranger]

The Canadian looks more like the 12z Euro ensembles days 8-10. I'd lean more toward that than anything the GFS is showing.

 

The good news is that the ensembles for all models are trending better for the extended range. Good signal for some sort of blocking ridge to setup offshore. How strong, where it sets up, and for how long are the biggest questions.

[Gradient Keeper]

Or be 500 miles to the north... or more likely not there at all.     The actual 500mb pattern in 240 hours will be completely different than what the models are showing right now at 240 hours.

 

This analysis of specific low placements and 'time for it to change' is just silly at that range... just like this post having to explain that fact.  

Maybe people like to analyze patterns day 7-10. I know I do since those patterns develop upstream 3 days in advance of over us. Things are likely to change, but ruling out a cold shot, or glancing blow, or modified blast into Columbia Basin at this point is foolish. 14% chance

[TT-SEA]

Maybe people like to analyze patterns day 7-10. I know I do since those patterns develop upstream 3 days in advance of over us. Things are likely to change, but ruling out a cold shot, or glancing blow, or modified blast into Columbia Basin at this point is foolish. 14% chance

Rob... I am not ruling out anything at all.

 

But analyzing detailed low placement at 240 hours and then saying there is still time for things to change as if we are tracking slight shifts in the 1-2 day period? Silliness.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will not have an arctic outbreak. In the next 11-15 days. I can say that with extreme confidence. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe people like to analyze patterns day 7-10. I know I do since those patterns develop upstream 3 days in advance of over us. Things are likely to change, but ruling out a cold shot, or glancing blow, or modified blast into Columbia Basin at this point is foolish. 14% chance

 

That is the chance I date Jennifer Lawrence in the next 6 months. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob... I am not ruling out anything at all.

 

But analyzing detailed low placement at 240 hours and then saying there is still time for things to change as if we are tracking slight shifts in the 1-2 day period? Silliness.

That's true, but we like silliness....

[HighlandExperience]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO sure is neat..............................

[TT-SEA]

00z EURO sure is neat..............................

 

 

That I like to hear... unless you are talking about another south wind rain event.

[liquidsnow]

That I like to hear... unless you are talking about another south wind rain event.

 

He was being sarcastic.

It sucks balls.

[TT-SEA]

He was being sarcastic.

It sucks balls.

 

 

Of course.   

[stuffradio]

That is the chance I date Jennifer Lawrence in the next 6 months. 

That's a pretty high chance...

[liquidsnow]

Can we move to ban the GFS?

[Dave]

65 degrees in Redmond (Oregon) at 11:00pm.  Crazy for mid December.  Redmond was an ice cube only a few days ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a pretty high chance...

 

Not to brag but I am a REALLY good looking guy. And just look at my dog!

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF is a complete mess.   

 

Anyone expecting a solid cold period with lowland snow chances through the end of next week is going to be seriously disappointed in a week.  

 

Maybe we could be set up good by the end of the month?    Getting cold next week would just be too early anyways.   It would be warming up by Christmas.