Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Another snow system for Nebraska and points north is on the table mid week. So far the GEM is more bullish and southeast with the snow than the GFS.Not much rain out front with this system. Moisture transport is partially cut off by the departing system earlier in the week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Congrats (to some of the) NE peeps. That track that lays down snow from eastern CO and north-east through MN and clips the west end of Michigan's UP is what I remember the most active snowstorm track being in the strong Nino of '82/83. And Ghosts of Christmases past if that area gets another bliz (ala 2009) at Christmas this year. Had a bunch of snow in SCMI over the past two winters, but brown Christmases are running rampant since 2011. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 why the hell is this system cutting so sharply right behind the first system? I keep waiting for the models to change but they're not budging an inch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 winter storm watches for the Nebraska panhandle for 5-9" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 All snow chances have been removed for Omaha for this storm too. Just a chance of light rain now. Of course after this storm moves through it finally gets below freezing with highs only around 30 for Thursday and Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 This is the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 NWS Hastings questioning the accuracy of the computer models for this next system: OFCOURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE MODEL ACCURACY OF THE TRACK OF THE LOWAND JUDGING THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...MIGHT WANTTO GIVE THIS SOME LEE WAY FOR VARIATION. IN OTHER WORDS...HEAVIERBAND OF SNOW MIGHT BE 60 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF CURRENT PROJECTION. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 NWS Hastings questioning the accuracy of the computer models for this next system: OFCOURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE MODEL ACCURACY OF THE TRACK OF THE LOWAND JUDGING THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...MIGHT WANTTO GIVE THIS SOME LEE WAY FOR VARIATION. IN OTHER WORDS...HEAVIERBAND OF SNOW MIGHT BE 60 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF CURRENT PROJECTION.I'd believe that more if the models had been jumping all over with this system, but it's been basically the same track on every run for days now. At least out this way 60 miles isn't going to make a difference anyway too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Your right. If you read their latest scientific forecasts they seem very frustrated that this storm has given them so many fits so it is hard to have total confidence in storm number 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 System at 6pm Tuesday - NAM Low really takes a hook towards Sioux Falls, which is really unusual given the track of the storm that just went by. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Are there any western NE, SD, or ND members out there that will get to enjoy this storm system? Central NE looks to be right on the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't know of any west of me. They have me in the maybe 1 inch (doubtful) and Dawson County to my northwest may get 3 inches. Will have to look down the road to our next chance. Hard to miss 2 storms like this but we did it again here. I think that is at least 5 misses of potential major storms going way back to early November for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Per Intellicast future-cast, it's oh SO close to at least giving you guys a consolation coating. Hoping it does! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 The Low is basically right on top of my house, ha. For our best snow storms, yes it does snow some years, or it used to anyways, we need that low about 100 miles straight south of its location on that map above. Keep hoping that the models will shift south but they are staying firm, even the latest 12Z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 I have kept hoping for that same shift, it is interesting to me with how crazy the models have been with numerous storms so far this season and that the GFS has locked and not budged a bit for the past week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 12z RGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121412/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 A 50-75 mile shift south would make a big difference for those Nebraskans on here but models seem firm. I don't think the GFS or NAM have budged in days. Much different than our previous storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 The NAM is coming in juicy for western NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Dang, you're not kidding. Western NE would be a nice place to be for this storm. http://i.imgur.com/m4Jh1hj.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yes sir. They have been in a great spot a few times since November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 0z GFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Shows 1 inch over me according to gfs. I am not holding out much hope of more than just flurries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 That is a beautiful area of snow in Nebraska this morning.Too bad we don't have any members that far out. Would love to hear some reports from that area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Geos, this map would show me at 3 inches. It has been freezing drizzle, snow, off and on for hours. It is very slick. I teach and several have slipped in the parking lot and a couple of students that live in the country had a fender bender on there way to school this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 That is a beautiful area of snow in Nebraska this morning.Too bad we don't have any members that far out. Would love to hear some reports from that area. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2015121500/wrf-nmm_asnow_ncus_48.png Neat how it has that LES stripe hugging Lk. Superior on an easterly wind.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Trees getting glazed with ice here. Streets are slick, several accidents from what I hear. Just can't get it snow. This might now be 6 storms where you would have expected snow but it is rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle or sleet. Might catch some snow as a band in Colorado and SW Nebraska tries to move east, but I assume that will fizzle out or move northeast. Have heard of many schools closed again west and northwest of me. I know of districts in southwest Nebraska that have already had 3 full snow days and several late starts and early dismissals. Seems like that area, northeast through South Dakota, is the prime spot this year as I just miss out and many others east and northeast have little chance unless a big change happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Trees getting glazed with ice here. Streets are slick, several accidents from what I hear. Just can't get it snow. This might now be 6 storms where you would have expected snow but it is rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle or sleet. Might catch some snow as a band in Colorado and SW Nebraska tries to move east, but I assume that will fizzle out or move northeast. Have heard of many schools closed again west and northwest of me. I know of districts in southwest Nebraska that have already had 3 full snow days and several late starts and early dismissals. Seems like that area, northeast through South Dakota, is the prime spot this year as I just miss out and many others east and northeast have little chance unless a big change happens. Sounds like a rough travel day there. I hate freezing drizzle and rain. Sure it's pretty to see a light coating of ice on the trees, it's always a pain to clean up after an ice event though. Yeah western South Dakota is getting a good dumping today. Sioux Falls missing the heaviest band I think. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 It will be interesting to see if the storm underperforms in the Nebraska panhandle. There are sure a lot of open holes in the radar. Looks like heaviest is in South Dakota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Nice snow falling here. Actually starting to accumulate. May last a couple more hours. At least it can still snow here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 A little Christmas snow cheer here the last hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Still snowing. Pictures don't do justice to the blowing snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 We had another bout of rain tonight. Didn't last long but man it came down hard. Checked the radar and it looked like a line of storms in the summer. No lightning though this time. Can it snow please?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 That band coming through Holdrege is such a tease...nice to see you got to at least see some snow out of this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Nice pictures of the snow. It's not much but we would all take it I'm sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 This morning looks like Christmas. Nice little snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 We have school on time this morning but many districts around us have 10 AM starts. I live on a snow route so they came buy with salt, sand, but side streets are like glass with ice under the 1 inch or so of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 You are right Tom. About 10:30 last night it was really coming down with low visibility but only lasted about an hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 We have school on time this morning but many districts around us have 10 AM starts. I live on a snow route so they came buy with salt, sand, but side streets are like glass with ice under the 1 inch or so of snow. I can tell from the second to last picture there is ice under that snow. The street are shiny.I hope no pet was spending the night in that carrier! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 No for some reason that pet carrier has sat there for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 No for some reason that pet carrier has sat there for a long time. Just messin' Saw the little paw prints in the snow there. Probably a little more accurate this time around. Missing some data in eastern SD... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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