TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Google is a powerful tool. http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/heavy-snow-hits-western-central-japan-okinawa-feels-chill-tooI googled Okinawa snow and the forecast popped up and some links to climate data... the current temp was way warmer than I expected. I could have done more research obviously! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Barring a failed pendulum cycle (1986-1988, for example), I wouldn't be worried about another potent El Niño next fall/winter. I could easily see a warm-neutral outcome, but am still thinking La Niña. Failed pendulum cycles sound like a drag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Failed pendulum cycles sound like a drag.Long time observations suggest that with each failed pendulum cycle, 3 kittens die. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pretty dark here. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wrf backed way off on snow here from 2-4" to maybe a dusting on the 00z run. That's frustrating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Basically the 00z is crapping on the long range too. Ridge is much further east in the hr 220 time frame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pretty dark here.Solar minimum. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 WRF wants to give me a couple inches of snow Monday morning... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow24.48.0000.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Wrf backed way off on snow here from 2-4" to maybe a dusting on the 00z run. That's frustrating Yeah... the WRF been way to wet for my area as well. There was maybe 2 minutes of ice pellets here today and sun at times. And then it showed a solid c-zone this evening and there is nothing happening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 1-29-16 18z GFS. #inremembrance#neverforget 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Long time observations suggest that with each failed pendulum cycle, 3 kittens die.http://i.gifntext.com/38621-you-think-this-is-a-motherfucking-joke.gif 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Now that is a kitten on a mission! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Basically the 00z is crapping on the long range too. Ridge is much further east in the hr 220 time frame Obviously the uncertainty is huge right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 37 here with chunky rain with shower confirmed by windshield splat test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier. This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries. The torch is fading. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Obviously the uncertainty is huge right now.I'm pretty certain we won't have Arctic air. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier. This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries. The torch is fading.That is good. It's been a bad run. Overall this winter will go down as warm and wet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier. This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries. The torch is fading. The climate is warming and that is probably not going to change. But its not just going upward from the warmest year ever either. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 00Z Canadian is really amplified. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 That is good. It's been a bad run. Overall this winter will go down as warm and wet. It will, but a large chunk of time averaged below normal from mid Dec to mid Jan. We also had a cold run in November and will have some below normal days in Feb. Could have been worse. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm pretty certain we won't have Arctic air. We actually have a better chance than if there was nothing but zonal flow showing up in the models. The ECMWF control model has had many runs showing a major Feb cold wave. Chances are against it, but it's not out of the question. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 We actually have a better chance than if there was nothing but zonal flow showing up in the models. The ECMWF control model has had many runs showing a major Feb cold wave. Chances are against it, but it's not out of the question.100% out of the question. Just being real. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 100% out of the question. Just being real.Based off of what? Your opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 100% out of the question. Just being real. Insane statement. I'm sure you would have said the same in 1962 when it torched for the first 2/3 of Feb. You would have been very wrong. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Insane statement. I'm sure you would have said the same in 1962 when it torched for the first 2/3 of Feb. You would have been very wrong.Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb? Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February. Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb? Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February. Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month. There are 3 Nino winters that had Arctic air in February. All mid month for some strange reason. We have an impressive MJO forecast to go through regions 4 through 6. Somewhere in there should be favorable for a cold Western trough. Any Western ridge should collapse or retrograde rather quickly. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 The ECMWF Nino plumes are going to be updated tomorrow. Can't wait to see how they look. Kind of a bummer they don't update that every day like the CFS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Snowing nicely above 1000ft in Vancouver this morning. Too bad most people live below that elevation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Geeze. I was just looking at my weather records for last Feb and it was one ugly turd to say the least. Absolute torch with drizzly rain every single day the first half of the month. This one looks worlds better for the first half at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Snowing nicely above 1000ft in Vancouver this morning. Too bad most people live below that elevation. sfu.jpg Nice. It managed to drop to 34 here in spite of cloud cover this morning. A decently chilly air mass. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb? Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February. Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month.A SSW/wind reversal in the polar stratosphere says nothing about where the cold air will go. That will be determined by other factors like tropical forcings/QBO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 There are 3 Nino winters that had Arctic air in February. All mid month for some strange reason. We have an impressive MJO forecast to go through regions 4 through 6. Somewhere in there should be favorable for a cold Western trough. Any Western ridge should collapse or retrograde rather quickly.Intraseasonal/MJO forcing will affect poleward circulation differently in a strong El Niño than it will in a strong La Niña, for example. Looking at unfiltered phase diagrams and ignoring the antecedent forcings/niño isn't smart, in my opinion. As I've been regurgitatinf for awhile, I February will probably be both warmer and drier than both December and January in the western U.S. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Phil, when do you think our next best shot at a cooler than average month is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Phil, when do you think our next best shot at a cooler than average month is?For the foreseeable future, any "cool" months will be wet with plenty of zonal flow and relatively small temperature anomalies, so it's tough to say. I'm not predicting any significantly cooler than average months until the summer. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 For the foreseeable future, any "cool" months will be wet with plenty of zonal flow and relatively small temperature anomalies, so it's tough to say. I'm not predicting any significantly cooler than average months until the summer. Probably a good call. I think we could come up with one or two below normal months between now and autumn. By then I think we will be seeing a sharp drop in anomalies. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 The ECMWF and GEM are in solid agreement with strong ridging along the Western Canadian coastline up into Alaska ten days from now. The GFS is different. The GFS needs to get another upgrade. The other day I was reading that the ECMWF will be undergoing some huge upgrades over the next couple of years that should make that model much better than it is now. The GFS could be left in the dust. That having been said the GFS still outperforms the ECMWF in some situations and in general from time to time. The ECMWF is supposedly going to upgrade their parallel model to high res in March. I'm not sure if that will become their main operational model or not, but I have been impressed with its performance a number of times. That brings up the question of whether or not I want the models to become that accurate. It would take some of the fun out of things knowing exactly what will happen IMO. Some winters the model false alarms are the only fun part of the winter. I figure we are probably at least 50 years from any model being able to accurately forecast Western lowland snowfall though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Was at Snoqualmie Summit skiing and it's raining up here. Cold spell did not trend colder it seems.Jimtastic! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 The other day I was reading that the ECMWF will be undergoing some huge upgrades over the next couple of years that should make that model much better than it is now. The GFS could be left in the dust. That having been said the GFS still outperforms the ECMWF in some situations and in general from time to time. The ECMWF is supposedly going to upgrade their parallel model to high res in March. I'm not sure if that will become their main operational model or not, but I have been impressed with its performance a number of times. That brings up the question of whether or not I want the models to become that accurate. It would take some of the fun out of things knowing exactly what will happen IMO. Some winters the model false alarms are the only fun part of the winter. I figure we are probably at least 50 years from any model being able to accurately forecast Western lowland snowfall though.Very interesting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 -1 at PDX today... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Here's a little fun fact to close out the month... PDX's high today was 44. PDX has not had a high cooler than 44 degrees on January 31st since a chilly high of 28 in 1996. #due 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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