Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 That purple line may be the -10C 850's. If the storm becomes as big as the Euro is showing, it won't have any problem tugging down the cold air from the HP the NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 EURO clown map. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016010612/michigan//ecmwf_tsnow_michigan_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 That purple line may be the -10C 850's. If the storm becomes as big as the Euro is showing, it won't have any problem tugging down the cold air from the HP the NW.Its surface temperature I am guessing the purple line crosses the dotted line in areas ruling out 850 mb... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 That purple line may be the -10C 850's. If the storm becomes as big as the Euro is showing, it won't have any problem tugging down the cold air from the HP the NW. That sounds right. 850mb temps would be way below 0° by daybreak on Sunday around here. They're already below 0° early Saturday. EURO is over doing the marine influence on that map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 That sounds right. 850mb temps would be way below 0° by daybreak on Sunday around here. They're already below 0° early Saturday.Its a critical thickness line of some sort. Thats the dotted line. Purple line is surface temp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gosaints is that all from this storm pretty much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gosaints is that all from this storm pretty much?Well in michigan it obviously alot of lake effect. I think Wisconsin does pretty good from wave 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Sorry for the vague post earlier. Work is crazy. Somebody covered what I was saying though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 NAM should so something fun again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 NW arkansas at hour 63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Drops about 7-8 mb in 6 hrs and strengthening fast at 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 993.4 in N/NW IN at hr 84 Getting more backside precip towards end of the run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Money, is it looking colder and better phased? Snowfall maps? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 has about an inch on instantweather maps Tom. Perfect track for you just need temps to drop faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 NAM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/24hkucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 All of the models seem to have a wound up system. All of which have the same issue no matter where they track. The airmass is to warm that it is running into. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Radar at HR 84 shows it still snowing with a decent band yet to go through http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/crefptypeconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 All of the models seem to have a wound up system. All of which have the same issue no matter where they tr a ack. The airmass is to warm that ite is running into. Need this thing to phase earlier. Models also have a very tough time with these type of storms. Everything has to go together to get a bomb out of this, but if all the pieces fit together look out. When does sampling of the waves happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Euro ens. mean http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16774-1452112892.png Most amped/NW solutions it shows is sub 985 in western MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Iowa gets missed again, come on. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Iowa gets missed again, come on. You just had a big storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 A really juicy system starting to get it's act together. As some have mentioned, if it can phase sooner/go negative tilt then a few could get hammered in this type of setup. Just need the cold air to filter in quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 of sleet and FZR, amounted to like 5 inches total,. Honestly I wouldn't call that big but I really shouldve rephrased that. Into something more like "It's a shame we get to miss this giant storm" Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 A really juicy system starting to get it's act together. As some have mentioned, if it can phase sooner/go negative tilt then a few could get hammered in this type of setup. Just need the cold air to filter in quicker. A big phased storm should be able to draw enough cold air in, and don't forget that areas will likely receive another 2-4 inches of snow before thos in WI/MN which could draw in the colder air farther south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 CPC took big steps towards the magic combo Euro mean track friendlier to us east of Chicago Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 NAM is awful yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 It looks like all the players for this storm are on the playing field so starting with the 0z runs we should hopefully see better modeling. Only caveat that we won't know for sure will be the setup for the cold air.....this probably won't be know for a few model runs. The best model with regards to the the northern branch of this storm would be the Canadian so look to it for this piece of the puzzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 18z GFS takes it down to about 997 in W. MI 1-3 inch snowband from IA into WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Iowa gets missed again, come on.Up by Waterloo we have done great this year. Only 6-7" away from the avg seasonal total. How much snow have you received so far this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Up by Waterloo we have done great this year. Only 6-7" away from the avg seasonal total. How much snow have you received so far this winter? 15in in 2 storms Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 but it seems linn count always gets the short end of storms Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Really hope we can get some Snow this weekend before the cold sets in bare ground brutal cold the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This system should be getting partial sampling in tonights 00z runs....full sampling by tomorrow's 12z runs...even then, once the energy skirts the 4 corners region we will see some interesting runs. That -NAO is going to help this storm turn due NNE. Haven't seen a Greenland block like this in a while. Those rising heights in SE Canada are going to help slow this system down and dig. Also, the Euro has been weakening the 1st wave and focusing in on the stronger gulf wave which allows the energy to focus in and eventually phase quicker. On the 12z Euro run, the model is still seeing a piece of energy just NW of FL which effects the storm phase earlier. If this comes out of the Gulf in one piece, its going to be a massive storm IMO. This may just be the model "dragging its feet" and leaving energy behind. I don't see why it would do so. Future runs will probably have this energy in one bulk piece. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This system should be getting partial sampling in tonights 00z runs....full sampling by tomorrow's 12z runs...even then, once the energy skirts the 4 corners region we will see some interesting runs. That -NAO is going to help this storm turn due NNE. Haven't seen a Greenland block like this in a while. Those rising heights in SE Canada are going to help slow this system down and dig. Also, the Euro has been weakening the 1st wave and focusing in on the stronger gulf wave which allows the energy to focus in and eventually phase quicker. On the 12z Euro run, the model is still seeing a piece of energy just NW of FL which effects the storm phase earlier. If this comes out of the Gulf in one piece, its going to be a massive storm IMO. This may just be the model "dragging its feet" and leaving energy behind. I don't see why it would do so. Future runs will probably have this energy in one bulk piece. Great insights Tom! Globals against the American models attm. Gonna be quite the ride following this, eh? This is the battle we've talked about for a few months now - Nino vs the blob with the low solar to boot. Battle ground setting up with us smack dab in ground zero like you said. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Somewhat interested in this...but it's got a long ways to go imho. Maybe some light snow in this neck of the woods sat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Great insights Tom! Globals against the American models attm. Gonna be quite the ride following this, eh? This is the battle we've talked about for a few months now - Nino vs the blob with the low solar to boot. Battle ground setting up with us smack dab in ground zero like you said. Bomb's away! The amount of blocking setting up in this pattern is quite unique, in such that, we haven't seen this in numerous years...especially with a strong El Nino in place this year. BTW, it wasn't too many days ago when many believed this storm would be an EC or OTS...LRC/30-day cycle worked like a charm on this one. Also, I'm baffled at how much the Euro Ensembles have shifted NW when the GEFS sniffed it out earlier on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hopefully that Greenland high and heights in eastern CA will be a tad stronger this weekend. Wouldn't be mind seeing an eastward track so that NW IN and the City of Chicago closer to the lake could get a bigger event - and western MI. You guys have been really shafted! lol 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 0z runs going to be very interesting with sampling happening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 The trends in the Euro handling both jet streaks are getting stronger and better phased each run... Notice just 24 hours ago the evolution...look how much stronger the southern jet is along the Gulf coast in today's run and compare it to yesterday's run. Now, also pay attention to the northern jet up near the Great Lakes which was pretty much non existent just 24 hours ago. That's a beautiful sign to see both jets "marry" their energy together. This is how we get monster storm systems to brew. Today's 12z run, clearly is showing "Uccellin's and Kocin's Theory" placing the lower lakes in the regions of both jet streams where maximum lift is produced. I believe the model is digesting the SE Canadian ridge which is amplifying this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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