GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Geos]

So the GFS just shifted the 12"+ snow band roughly from SE MN to NW IL in 12 hours...hmmmm

 

150-175 miles. About how far the low shifted south along the front range. Now we know where we want this thing to come out.

[Money]

I'm really exited for this storm. Whoever gets it is going to cash in huge

 

You just threw in the towel 6 hours ago 

[james1976]

Most of IA 12+. Sign me up

[Tom]

I'm really exited for this storm. Whoever gets it is going to cash in huge!

Reverse psychology is working for you...something you and GDR are pretty good at...j/k...pulling your chain.  Would like to see this trend continue through tomorrows 00z runs and make sure it aint a fluke run. 

[Money]

Here was 12z at HR 156

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif s

 

3 MB stronger and way NW than 12z at hr 144

[Iowa2015]

Better run Still need a shift south/east really close to the cutoff

[hlcater]

You just threw in the towel 6 hours ago

Yea....... Ummmmmm.. Yea.. I did, didn't I?

[hlcater]

I'm as trigger happy as a 15 year old kid that goes off what they see.

[Tom]

Kinda odd that the GFS leaves energy behind near the NM/TX border...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_189_500_vort_ht.gif

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[Money]

12z at HR 192:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[Tom]

150-175 miles. About how far the low shifted south along the front range. Now we know where we want this thing to come out.

Ya, first run we saw it has the SLP near AMA...

[winterfreak]

The EURO should be interesting later on. Let's see what the king has to say.

[gosaints]

Well the gfs and ggem rubs tonight show well that no model is locked in

[6789]

I know this question may seem pretty comical but are we thinking this will be an overnight threat on Monday or pushing into a Tuesday /Tuesday night event, for Cook county and the city of Chicago? It looks like the cut-off gradient is steep with people to the N/W of the city cashing in (at least on this run). Hopefully, the city can get something going if not so much with the storm, at least some LES. 

[Money]

GGEM is just a huge blizzard for a lot of people

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Money]

40 mm in Iowa/Wisconsin which is about 1.57 QPF 

[Tom]

I wonder how many more pages we will add to this storm thread by Sat...

 

I know this question may seem pretty comical but are we thinking this will be an overnight threat on Monday or pushing into a Tuesday /Tuesday night event, for Cook county and the city of Chicago? It looks like the cut-off gradient is steep with people to the N/W of the city cashing in (at least on this run). Hopefully, the city can get something going if not so much with the storm, at least some LES. 

Too far out to say when the storm hits in Chicago.  Tonight's GFS run shows precip knocking on the door just after 6pm Tuesday. 

[Maxim]

I know this question may seem pretty comical but are we thinking this will be an overnight threat on Monday or pushing into a Tuesday /Tuesday night event, for Cook county and the city of Chicago? It looks like the cut-off gradient is steep with people to the N/W of the city cashing in (at least on this run). Hopefully, the city can get something going if not so much with the storm, at least some LES. 

Lol LES

[Tom]

00z GGEM...showing a double barrel low...

 

Edit: Actually, a triple...lol...one piece down near the Gulf...

[Money]

The one thing that will be working against a southern shift of the system is the lack of snowcover across the area.

 

GGEM showing temps in the 50's in IL a few days before the system:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160127/00Z/f114/sfctconus.png

[gosaints]

The one thing that will be working against a southern shift of the system is the lack of snowcover across the area.

 

GGEM showing temps in the 50's in IL a few days before the system:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160127/00Z/f114/sfctconus.png

You are in a really good spot...

[Money]

You are in a really good spot...

 

I'm hoping. I like the fact that the high should hopefully be far enough south to funnel in colder air and hopefully we have some snowpack left yet which will also keep temps a bit colder. 

 

I like your area as well. 

[gabel23]

I just need to stop watching the models because I have been sitting in the sweet spot for way to long. I just hope I don't get really disappointed.....been a while since I have seen a monster. 

[jcwxguy]

gem

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/output_GEhkuY_zpsyedl7jxc.gif

[gosaints]

I'm hoping. I like the fact that the high should hopefully be far enough south to funnel in colder air and hopefully we have some snowpack left yet which will also keep temps a bit colder.

 

I like your area as well.

Ya I like my spot if it is wound up storm

. The first wave and northern stream strength will have alot to say in the final outcome.

[ToastedRavs]

The EURO should be interesting later on. Let's see what the king has to say.

 

I hope this is tongue in cheek as the Euro has been anything but the king this winter. Ask Jim Flowers.

[Money]

Ya I like my spot if it is wound up storm

. The first wave and northern stream strength will have alot to say in the final outcome.

 

Pretty much.

 

Wound up system, plus strong gulf moisture, plus no snowpack at all up until Wisconsin/Iowa just screams NW trend to me as we get closer to the event at least until it feels effects from that high. 

[Geos]

I ride the rain/snow line through the whole storm pretty much. - on the GGEM.

50 miles farther south and this area gets clocked.

 

 

 

[gosaints]

The vort is only 22 gfs runs from being onshore

[Money]

Through HR 162 with another 24-30 hours of snow in some areas:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160127/00Z/f162/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[hlcater]

Well, if the high is far enough south andstrong enough it will take a lot to trump it's infuence on the low.

[Geos]

The vort is only 22 gfs runs from being onshore

 

5.5 days away.

[OKwx2k4]

The euro has been craptastic.....

Yeah. Not even a close argument there. It's telling when I haven't seen a skill score posted touting the Euro supremacy since like November. Lol

[gosaints]

5.5 days away.

Haha

[Money]

10:1 ratio:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160127/00Z/f186/acc10_1snowmw.png

[gabel23]

Pretty much.

 

Wound up system, plus strong gulf moisture, plus no snowpack at all up until Wisconsin/Iowa just screams NW trend to me as we get closer to the event at least until it feels effects from that high. 

We have a 5-8" snow pack in parts of Eastern/Southeast Nebraska, although I would expect most if not all of the snow to be gone by this weekend. The snow pack has a weird glaze to it around my area, almost like it's completely crusted over/frozen. I'm hoping that can lncrease the albedo affect, I want to keep some of my snowpack! 

[Money]

So, GFS went SE quite a bit, GGEM went NW quite a bit and now are pretty much in agreement.