SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GFS certainly not backing off...Still dry as a bone. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GFS certainly not backing off...Still dry as a bone.Ya, looking pretty cold. Shame about it being so dry... again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Chris c says 46 out of 50 euro ensembles give us wintry precip on days 8-9 with the mean at about 3" of snow. As per the 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Myforecast gives Maple Ridge close to 40 cm by Feb 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Chris c says 46 out of 50 euro ensembles give us wintry precip on days 8-9 with the mean at about 3" of snow. As per the 00z F*** YEA! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow, -20 850s encroaching into eastern Oregon by Thursday afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159? Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift. Pretty close to snow? It will be windy because of the cold east winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hopefully some moisture starts showing in the models soon, I would hate to waste this chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift.I don't think it's Windy. He would have simply said, "score!!!!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pretty close to snow? It will be windy because of the cold east winds. LOL...The 510 line is pretty close to PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've never seen the ensemble mean change that much in just one run.Me neither. I mean a drop of 2 or 4c maybe, but not 6 or 7c. Craziness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hopefully some moisture starts showing in the models soon, I would hate to waste this chance. Me too, who would of thought this time it could even be colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159?And super dry! --- Waiting to see some moisture and then we are talking. I think that is what we all really want... ? If it ends up like the December event I think we are going to be left for wanting. Cold without snow... Yawn! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 What about your hunch that winter was over back in early January? Oh, yeah, about that... I did say to leave the door slightly ajar and to see what the models looked like by the end of the month, ummm, yeahhhhh sounds good. Anyhow So far it looks a touch colder than 6z! 850mb nearly -15c and thickness around 511 I believe. *Rubs eyes* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 And super dry! --- Waiting to see some moisture and then we are talking. I think that is what we all really want... ? If it ends up like the December event I think we are going to be left for wanting. Cold without snow... Yawn! What's crazy is that even Southern California gets moisture as the cold air drops down to them. Actually all of the SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 At hour 216 the overrunning potential looks pretty good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's going to be a race now of how fast the system gets to us before all the arctic cold air retreats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 With the energy heading south this looks like a good overrunning event for W. Oregon...Of course this far out it really means nothing. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Round 2 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 At hour 216 the overrunning potential looks pretty good.A nice snow to rain transition? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEM though HR 144 looks very cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 A nice snow to rain transition? I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso. At face value, we all know it will change from run to run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso. It will stay in place, PDX wont lose the cold gorge east winds. H pressure still in Southern BC feeding cold air through. The Willamette Valley looks like it will get a nice snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS GoodiesCheck out the COLD extracted raw numbersPortland/Troutdale -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttdThe Dalles - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdlsSalem - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kslePendleton - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdtBellingham - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbliMoses Lake - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmwhSeattle - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kseaSpokane - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgegWilliams, Lake BC -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cywl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well it will be nice to have some cold air here... Now lets do our snow dance!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't know what this means for down the road... but this weekend looks pretty messy. The cold air that was supposed to come through today now gets stuck in place and tomorrow there is a band of drizzle and clouds moving NORTH up through Bellingham again. Looks like it will be Monday now before it will get cold enough to scour out the low level moisture for good south of Everett. Could very well drizzle here all weekend. Not what was shown earlier. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow the GFS extracted data is incredibly cold. 512 thickness and -14C 850 mb temps at Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS GoodiesCheck out the COLD extracted raw numbers Portland/Troutdale -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttdThe Dalles - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdlsSalem - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kslePendleton - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdtBellingham - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbliMoses Lake - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmwhSeattle - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kseaSpokane - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgegWilliams, Lake BC -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cywl Check out those east winds from the gorge! High temps below freezing from Wed to at least Friday for much of the western interior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hour 384 is nice! lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12Z GFS looks like it has much more snow potential later next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12Z Canadian at 144 hours: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEM appears ever colder yet.http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=enThickness appears to briefly fall below 510 around 507-508. Very impressive. After day 7-8 a series of very strong low pressure areas rotate up towards Vancouver Island. Appears to me this is setting the stage for a snow/ice event, perhaps major ice storm if things work out right. Heck, may even have to watch out for south wind event/storm potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hour 384 is nice! lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gifCalifornia can start to back off the drought predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 It would be nice to end winter on a bang.March in like a Lion, out like a Lamb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 As we always say, "Let's get the cold air here first, get it firmly in place, then worry about moisture details later." same applies here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z WRFTuesday 10:00 PM COLD!http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z WRFTuesday 10:00 PM COLD!http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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