April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

 

Definitely worked in 2015!

You're sweating a little. And it's not just the April heat!

 

April 2015 was relatively cool, fwiw.

[Jesse]

Can someone do me up a simulated post-Yellowstone Caldera eruption forecast for Independence Day?

Scattered ashfall with a high of 36, 80% chance of mass extinction.

[TT-SEA]

You're sweating a little. And it's not just the April heat!

April 2015 was relatively cool, fwiw.

Not in the least.

[Deweydog]

Scattered ashfall with a high of 36, 80% chance of mass extinction.

 

Can't even score stratiform ashfall these days.

 

What a drag.  

[TT-SEA]

Why don't you start a poll and I'll pin it for you.  Then in September you can gloat to everyone how you were right again.

 

 

Good idea.   Although by then nobody will care.   Just like at the end of the record warm summer of 2015.  

[TT-SEA]

65 at Snoqualmie Pass.

 

72 here.  

[TT-SEA]

For those looking for cool thoughts on a warm day... my Aunt posted this pic from their house on a lake in Wisconsin today as they anticipate open water soon (crack has opened in the middle of the lake).    Although they are expecting another 4 inches of snow tonight.   Not my idea of April.  

 

[Jesse]

Score!!!

Close to average April incoming?

[Deweydog]

Close to average April incoming?

Probably will end up warmer than I was thinking. It'll be tough to make up for the first 10 days.

 

Nice to be on the good side of wrong, I suppose.

[TT-SEA]

Probably will end up warmer than I was thinking. It'll be tough to make up for the first 10 days.

 

Nice to be on the good side of wrong, I suppose.

 

True dat.

[Jesse]

Probably will end up warmer than I was thinking. It'll be tough to make up for the first 10 days.

 

Nice to be on the good side of wrong, I suppose.

Mr. Objective himself.

[Deweydog]

Mr. Objective himself.

True. I can objectively say the next ten days will be rather warm.

[TT-SEA]

True. I can objectively say the next ten days will be rather warm.

Good pattern for frosty nights??

[Deweydog]

Good pattern for frosty nights??

Teens and lower 20's due to the low, low, low solar activity.

[Jesse]

True. I can objectively say the next ten days will be rather warm.

Or rather good.

[TT-SEA]

Or rather good.

Pretty nice after being drenched with rain for so many months.

[Deweydog]

Or rather good.

Sometimes you take a guess and it breaks good, breaks bad. happens when you party naked...

 

Doesn't mean the two month period will finish warm, but it's off to a good-bad start it appears.

[Jesse]

Sometimes you take a guess and it breaks good, breaks bad. s**t happens when you party naked...

 

Doesn't mean the two month period will finish warm, but it's off to a good-bad start it appears.

Good and bad weather is subjective.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yeah, check out the new 12z ECMWF 850mb temperature anomalies for next Thursday and Friday. This is insane!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016040112/ecmwf_T850a_nwus_7.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016040112/ecmwf_T850a_nwus_8.png

If that happened in the middle of July or Aug we be around 100..

[Deweydog]

Good and bad weather is subjective.

Yes, it'll be okay. We get it. This isn't your cup of tea.

[Jesse]

Yes, it'll be okay. We get it. This isn't your cup of tea.

It actually has been pretty pleasant. Obviously I would like if it didn't last forever, though.

[Deweydog]

It actually has been pretty pleasant. Obviously I would like if it didn't last forever, though.

As would I. November isn't too far off.

[TT-SEA]

As would I. November isn't too far off.

 

 

Yeah... it will end by November for sure.   That is hardly forever.   

[Tyler Mode]

Who remembers the spring of 2009?  We didn't even break 60 degrees until April 4th.

This year we've hit 60 even at my Battle Ground station 18 times already this year.  And we've hit 70 five times...

[TT-SEA]

Who remembers the spring of 2009?  We didn't even break 60 degrees until April 4th.

 

This year we've hit 60 even at my Battle Ground station 19 times already this year.  And we've hit 70 five times...

 

 

How does that compare to last year?

[Tyler Mode]

Here's a comparison:

 

January 60+ Temps

2015/2016

 

3/0

 

February 60+ Temps

 

8/8

 

March 60+ Temps

 

19/9

 

 

Total:

 

30/17

[MossMan]

Taken from the dock of our lake house on Wednesday morning. Doesn't get any better than this, loving this weather!

[Jesse]

How does that compare to last year?

All I know is that summer 2009 was pretty frigid in these parts. Good thing we aren't following that year!

[Jesse]

As would I. November isn't too far off.

Is that when you give cold the OK again?

[TT-SEA]

All I know is that summer 2009 was pretty frigid in these parts. Good thing we aren't following that year!

 

 

Would be pretty odd to follow a Nina to Nino year.   We have found many different ways to be warm.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF weeklies point to a warm April and then wet weather returning in early May.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-long-range-forecast-pattern-clues-into-may/56432938

 

Either May or June is almost guaranteed to be colder and wetter than normal.     Maybe half of both months.

[Timmy Supercell]

70 / 30 in Klamath Falls today. I love going from freezing to warm all in the same 10-12 hours.

[snow_wizard]

Some pretty good temperature acrobatics coming up.  A decently cool trough followed by an insane rise to nearly 15C on the 850s.  This could easily end up being one of those freaky Aprils where it pushes 80 in Seattle.  I'm betting on a big crash later in the month though.  I'll never forget April 1984 where it reached the low 80s in mid April only to followed by wet snow late in the month.

[Deweydog]

Is that when you give cold the OK again?

It can get cold any time it sees fit, which is a good way to look at it considering there isn't a D**n thing I can do about it.

 

Like I tell my kids, put on sweater.

[Tyler Mode]

Yesterday felt like a summer morning with all of the sunshine.  Today is no different with the low clouds in place.

76 yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday felt like a summer morning with all of the sunshine.  Today is no different with the low clouds in place.

 

76 yesterday.

 

 

Low cloud coverage looks pretty spotty on the first visible satellite.    Sunny here now... just some wispy high clouds.   Should be significantly cooler today though with more marine influence.

[Tyler Mode]

Low cloud coverage looks pretty spotty on the first visible satellite.    Sunny here now... just some wispy high clouds.   Should be significantly cooler today though with more marine influence.

Does anyone have SST for the north Pacific now vs last year at this time?

 

Even water that is 5-7 degrees warmer than normal seems to keep low clouds out of here most of the summer and as a result high temps are 10+ warmer than average.

 

I remember the last two summer forecast highs would always be too low.  They would say around 80, it would be 86-87 etc.

[MossMan]

We are deep in the marine influence up here this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice sunny morning here today but you could gradually feel the air mass cool the last couple of days with a little more marine influence here. Wednesday was the warmest day, Shawnigan Lake was only 1F below the all-time March record high that day.

[ShawniganLake]

Record highs have been widespread in western Canada this week. From southern BC all the way to the Northwest Territories. Temperatures have approached 70F even north of 60N