April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Remember the good ol' days when there was supposed to be a decent SW'erly push this evening?  

[Jesse]

Remember the good ol' days when there was supposed to be a decent SW'erly push this evening?

Wish we could turn back time.

[TT-SEA]

Payback will come with chilly and rainy weather for 4 weeks centered around Memorial Day.

 

Then payback for that will be a warm and dry July - September.  

[TT-SEA]

88 here.

[bainbridgekid]

Officially the warmest April day in Seattle history (going back to 1894.) 86 degrees!

 

Warmest April day ever in Bellingham too.

[Jesse]

Payback will come with chilly and rainy weather for 4 weeks centered around Memorial Day.

 

Then payback for that will be a warm and dry July - September.

Quick, everyone dogpile him for pseudoscience and wishful thinking!

 

No takers?

[Phil]

Payback will come with chilly and rainy weather for 4 weeks centered around Memorial Day.

 

Then payback for that will be a warm and dry July - September.

Are you invoking persistence, the law of averages, a combination of both, or is this just some sort of hunch?

 

Regardless, this reads more like something based in numerology or astrology than science. Just my opinion here.

[TT-SEA]

Quick, everyone dogpile him for pseudoscience and wishful thinking!

 

No takers?

 

 

You are the king of wishful thinking.    Credit to Go West.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry4iwzS4Na0

[TT-SEA]

Are you invoking persistence, the law of averages, a combination of both, or is this just some sort of hunch?

 

Regardless, this reads more like something based in numerology or astrology than science. Just my opinion here.

 

 

It will probably be correct.  I am pretty good with these warm season feelings.  

[Jesse]

You are the king of wishful thinking. Credit to Go West.

 

 

Is that why I do so well in forecast contests?

[TT-SEA]

Is that why I do so well in forecast contests?

 

 

Specific forecasts is not my strength.   Plus this event morphed into something more impressive right after the contest started.

 

Last spring I said that it was likely that summer would probably be just as warm as it was in 2014.   Matt said my forecast sounded either like delusion or wishful thinking because it was not going to happen.   

 

I am NOT saying that 2016 will be as warm as 2014 and 2015.   I am saying that there will likely be a very cool and wet period during the last half of May and the first half of June... followed by a generally warmer and drier than normal July-September period.   

 

Again... check back in October for actual results.

[Deweydog]

PDX holds steady at 85.

 

Cold/hot July cancel?  

[TT-SEA]

81 at BLI.    Monthly record smashed.

[Jesse]

Specific forecasts is not my strength. Plus this event morphed into something more impressive right after the contest started.

 

Last spring I said that it was likely that summer would probably be just as warm as it was in 2014. Matt said my forecast sounded either like delusion or wishful thinking because it was not going to happen.

 

I am NOT saying that 2016 will be as warm as 2014 and 2015. I am saying that there will likely be a very cool and wet period during the last half of May and the first half of June... followed by a generally warmer and drier than normal July-September period.

 

Again... check back in October for actual results.

Whatever. You've gotten lucky the past few years. Makes it a lot easier when nature cooperates with your biases to an extreme degree.

 

You still never addressed your original claim that I am the king of wishful thinking. I think a lot of people get preferences and forecasting ability mixed up here. I will openly admit I prefer cooler weather, I am not above being real, like some. There is a difference between openly admitting you like certain types of weather and letting this affect your forecasts/outlooks though. People just assume since I am open about liking cold I must be terrible at predicting things, but if you look at my record here the last 3-4 years ( I may have been worse when I was younger) that simply isn't true.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever. You've gotten lucky the past few years. Makes it a lot easier when nature cooperates with your biases to an extreme degree.

 

You still never addressed your original claim that I am the king of wishful thinking. I think a lot of people get preferences and forecasting ability mixed up here. I will openly admit I prefer cooler weather, I am not above being real, like some. There is a difference between openly admitting you like certain types of weather and letting this affect your forecasts/outlooks though. People just assume since I am open about liking cold I must be terrible at predicting things, but if you look at my record here the last 3-4 years ( I may have been worse when I was younger) that simply isn't true.

 

Yep... I am always lucky.  

 

You are defending yourself while accusing me of the exact same thing on the warm side.   I certainly recognize when things are stacked cold and/or wet and usually I am too pessimistic in those situations.   I have no problem assuming the worst (for my preferences).   

[Deweydog]

Is that why I do so well in forecast contests?

No way.

[Jesse]

No way.

On my way to being two for two with you.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Abbotsford was officially 83.3 at their last hourly so they smash their previous record of 77.

 

The all-time April record is 85.6, so it could end up close, if not today then possibly tomorrow or Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

On my way to being two for two with you.

 

Matt will make up ground tomorrow with the strong marine push tonight!

 

Who figured he would predict a premature end to a warm spell while you assumed it would last longer.   Sometimes your pessimism (based on your preferences) serves you well.

[Deweydog]

On my way to being two for two with you.

I was more referencing your quick discount of the last event. You eventually warmed up to it a bit more (no pun intended) but your max temps for the peak of the event were still a long way off.

 

Everyone is different and has different thresholds of humility, but yeah... I don't think you're quite as born again, or for the first time, as you think.

[Jesse]

Matt will make up ground tomorrow with the strong marine push tonight!

 

Who figured he would predict a premature end to a warm spell while you assumed it would last longer. Sometimes your pessimism (based on your preferences) serves you well.

Or maybe I saw that Tuesday had the potential to go either way, so I decided a middle of the road approach would be the best bet?

[Jesse]

Yep... I am always lucky.

 

You are defending yourself while accusing me of the exact same thing on the warm side. I certainly recognize when things are stacked cold and/or wet and usually I am too pessimistic in those situations. I have no problem assuming the worst (for my preferences).

Work on your short term forecasting skills and maybe that will give more credence to your long term abilities. Long term stuff is much more ethereal than a basic 4-5 day outlook. Basically like reading tea leaves.

 

I will say that you know this climate very well and will sometimes totally nail things, but you do let your biases get in the way more than you should sometimes.

[Jesse]

I was more referencing your quick discount of the last event. You eventually warmed up to it a bit more (no pun intended) but your max temps for the peak of the event were still a long way off.

 

Everyone is different and has different thresholds of humility, but yeah... I don't think you're quite as born again, or for the first time, as you think.

I guess two degrees is the new "long way". I had 83 and PDX hit 85, which was also within the range of my earlier 80-85 prediction for PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Work on your short term forecasting skills and maybe that will give more credence to your long term abilities. Long term stuff is much more ethereal than a basic 4-5 day outlook. Basically like reading tea leaves.

 

I will say that you know this climate very well and will sometimes totally nail things, but you do let your biases get in the way more than you should sometimes.

 

 

My biases tend to make my forecasts more pessimistic (to me) overall.    

 

I don't think being able to better forecast 82 or 86 at SEA on specific day based on the whims of breeze in either direction means anything in terms of being able to gauge long-term trends and seasonal forecasts.    

[Phil]

On my way to being two for two with you.

I might top you in the end.

[Deweydog]

I guess two degrees is the new "long way". I had 83 and PDX hit 85, which was also within the range of my earlier 80-85 prediction for PDX.

You were off by eight for the two warmest days of a warm event. An event that was much more consistently well-handled by models with respect to its peak intensity and duration. A few days prior you were quick to dismiss it as a pretty typical April event, even though the models showed it to be one of if not the warmest air mass we've seen so early. Then you saw you were the only one jumping on score-boy's supposed outlandish claims, then had to do smoothing over to try to salvage some objectivity.

 

Not a big deal.

[Phil]

I don't think being able to better forecast 82 or 86 at SEA on specific day based on the whims of breeze in either direction means anything in terms of being able to gauge long-term trends and seasonal forecasts.

I kind of agree with this take, however, typically I try avoid making forecasts based on "warm season feelings", or whatever other hunches may manifest themselves in my conscious mind. Just a personal preference.

[Jesse]

You were off by eight for the two warmest days of a warm event. An event that was much more consistently well-handled by models with respect to its peak intensity and duration. A few days prior you were quick to dismiss it as a pretty typical April event, even though the models showed it to be one of if not the warmest air mass we've seen so early. Then you saw you were the only one jumping on score-boy's supposed outlandish claims, then had to do smoothing over to try to salvage some objectivity.

 

Not a big deal.

Whatever helps you sleep at night. I still managed to put together a better forecast than yours.

 

I guess that makes your two losses even more pathetic if my methodology is indeed so hopelessly fraught with error.

[Phil]

Specific forecasts is not my strength. Plus this event morphed into something more impressive right after the contest started.

 

 

I think it can be argued both seasonal/LR forecasting and specific/short range forecasting requires a certain degree of elemental pattern recognition. What those elements are, what they signify and where/if they meet is something else.

[Deweydog]

Whatever helps you sleep at night. I still managed to put together a better forecast than yours.

 

That you did, but for some reason you still seem desperate for my opinion.  Shouldn't it be the other way around?  

[Deweydog]

Second 90 of the month in Kelso.

 

Not bad for June.  

[Jesse]

That you did, but for some reason you still seem desperate for my opinion. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

I respect and see the value in the opinions of others, and will seek them out even if I am confident in myself. You walk around always thinking you are the smartest guy in the room, surrounded by a bunch of drooling plebs. I think there is actually more strength in the first way of thinking.

[Deweydog]

I respect the opinions of others, and will seek them out even if I am confident in myself. You walk around always thinking you are the smartest guy in the room, surrounded by a bunch of drooling plebs. I think there is actually more strength in the first way of thinking.

 

I figured that would activate the victim reflex.

 

I do no such thing.  I just think it's ironic someone with such forecasting prowess would need so much help.  

 

I'm a novice just like almost everyone else here and my "track record" shows it.  

[Jesse]

I figured that would activate the victim reflex.

 

I do no such thing. I just think it's ironic someone with such forecasting prowess would need so much help.

 

I'm a novice just like almost everyone else here and my "track record" shows it.

Not once did I ever say I was a pro. I am just thing to defend the idea that my doing well on the contests is some sort of fluke. You know that is unfair.

 

And don't be so humble. You are no doubt one of the best forecasters here. Attitude could use some adjusting sometimes though. One reason I PM you is because you seem to be a little more civil in that format. Perhaps you feel you have a reputation to uphold here at this point?

[Deweydog]

Not once did I ever say I was a pro. I am just thing to defend the idea that my doing well on the contests is some sort of fluke. You know that is unfair.

 

And don't be so humble. You are no doubt one of the best forecasters here. Attitude could use some adjusting sometimes though. One reason I PM you is because you seem to be a little more civil in that format. Perhaps you feel you have a reputation to uphold here at this point?

 

I gave the same opinion as I did yesterday.  Payback from one season to the next is a logical idea but physically speaking I doubt it holds water to any appreciable degree.  It's a nice idea if you don't like what's happening now and like the opposite of what's happening now.  

[bainbridgekid]

88 at SEA.

 

Hotter than it ever got the entire 2011 Summer!

 

Utterly insane for April 18th.

[Timmy Supercell]

Second 90 of the month in Kelso.

 

Not bad for June.  

 

I know this is pretty early for 90+ but why not quote the month of May? lol May waves aren't as uncommon as you think. 

[Deweydog]

88 at SEA.

 

Seriously impressive.

More importantly, 87 in Oly.

[Jesse]

Some downright ridiculous numbers trickling in.

[Deweydog]

The lack of a north/south gradient is impressive. Two degrees warmer in B-ham compared to Eugene.