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April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Tyler Mode

By Tyler Mode
in West of the Rockies

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bainbridgekid
bainbridgekid

88 at SEA.   Hotter than it ever got the entire 2011 Summer!   Utterly insane for April 18th.

BLI snowman
BLI snowman

I can't believe how many different great analogs we have this year. Have we ever had a year with so many to choose from? The answer is no, we haven't, because 2016 has more years before it than any ot

Front Ranger
Front Ranger

So much energy being expended on the hopes and dreams of summer 2016.   Tim, you're coming across as a bit desperate here. 2013-15 was an exceptional stretch for warm PNW summers, and you know it. I t

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DareDuck Mentor

DareDuck

Posted
Posted

40 degrees and heavy wet snow in Klamath Falls. Some flakes about the size of a quarter.

I don't think t'storms are very likely east of the cascades with this going on. Maybe if this were early May in a cold core convective setup I could probably achieve thunder-snow a lot easier (I saw that on 05/06/2015 after sunset when storms were already in progress).

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2a0bbq8.jpg

We got about a half inch this morning in Bend then another snow shower this afternoon that turned the ground white. Bachelor has picked up 13" since this morning!

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Not here, it didn't. That stretch was interspersed with a couple days below 70, then followed by mid 50's before warming up again. I'm not complaining, this April has been great so far, days like today just suck, that's all...

Point is, clearly it is possible in our climate.

 

And today was lovely according to the May flowers standard.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

All,

 

I added a few pictures to my spring gallery, including some from my flight back from Boise.

 

http://www.naturespixpdx.com/Landscapes/Spring-2016/

 

http://www.naturespixpdx.com/Landscapes/Spring-2016/i-XqzNztB/0/L/81.%20G%20Hood%20From%20Air-L.jpg

 

Beautiful pics. I wish I had a window seat last week flying into Salt Lake City. But given my minuscule bladder I always take the aisle when I can. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Farmboy Collaborator

Farmboy

Posted
Posted

This is the guy who predicted an average summer last year, meaning the odds of this being record hot have increased significantly. ****!!!!!!

 

I hope so, I'd like to see more long, never-ending stretches of days above 85....

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Wow, Niño 1.2 is already negative. The Equatorial Pacific literally looks like the inverse of 1998, with the cooling in the EPAC. Overall, more analogous to 1988/1973 than 1998/1983 at this point.

 

Solid upwelling oceanic KW ongoing, with a low frequency Niña (IO/MT) forcing component showing up on guidance. Already evidence of developing poleward NPAC anticyclone, in addition.

 

If this weren't evidence enough, the new seasonal UKMET just came in with Niña-conditions by June and a strong -PNA/+EPO type pattern (strong Aleutian ridge) by July, which agrees with the monthly ECMWF.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Coolest thing I have seen in awhile... if you go to Google maps and start scrolling outward you end up getting all the way out to a view from space which happens to be the current satellite image!    You can browse the current clouds and storms over the entire Earth in seconds.   :)

 

http://s24.postimg.org/ru77g3wwk/sat.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Coolest thing I have seen in awhile... if you go to Google maps and start scrolling outward you end up getting all the way out to a view from space which happens to be the current satellite image! You can just browse the current clouds and storms over the entire Earth in seconds. :)

You can also select to have it overlayed with a radar and current temps.

 

I love google earth. I always look at it after going for a hike or a drive in a new location.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Wow, Niño 1.2 is already negative. The Equatorial Pacific literally looks like the inverse of 1998, with the cooling in the EPAC. Overall, more analogous to 1988/1973 than 1998/1983 at this point.

 

Solid upwelling oceanic KW ongoing, with a low frequency Niña (IO/MT) forcing component showing up on guidance. Already evidence of developing poleward NPAC anticyclone, in addition.

 

If this weren't evidence enough, the new seasonal UKMET just came in with Niña-conditions by June and a strong -PNA/+EPO type pattern (strong Aleutian ridge) by July, which agrees with the monthly ECMWF.

 

 

Current SSTA map...  still way behind 1988.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.14.2016.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Current SSTA map... still way behind 1988.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.14.2016.gif

Only by 4-5 weeks now based on thermocline tilt. Looks like PDO SSTAs responding too.

 

#LaNiña #ForcingRegression

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

A lot of blue along our coast. There goes summer.

That's just the change over the last 7 days, not the absolute anomalies. That said, the RNA/poleward anticyclonic bias in the NPAC pattern depicted by long range guidance (next week and beyond) will continue to cool the offshore waters and drop the PDO overall.

 

It's all a product of a growing IO/MT background forcing integral that should lock in permanently sometime during July.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted

That's just the change over the last 7 days, not the absolute anomalies. That said, the RNA/poleward anticyclonic bias in the NPAC pattern depicted by long range guidance (next week and beyond) will continue to cool the offshore waters and drop the PDO overall.

 

It's all a product of a growing IO/MT background forcing integral that should lock in permanently sometime during July.

I know, it was a very light hearted comment about the blue off our coast. Having said that, I'm really not feeling a hot and dry summer here this year. Probably going to end up feeling pretty seasonable, maybe a +1F anomaly for the season, just because it is the 20 teens.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Very calm this morning on the Sound... you can see the wake of the ferry going back probably a mile or more.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/wekpgjx4g/seattle81.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Got into the upper 30s here this morning. Always a nice way to kick off a warm spell.

 

 

Too cold this morning... sort of annoying getting the paper.      And it only got down to 41 here.    

 

Looking forward to more comfortable weather that does not require a sweatshirt.    B)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Too cold this morning... sort of annoying getting the paper. And it only got down to 41 here.

 

Looking forward to more comfortable weather that does not require a sweatshirt. B)

I will try to keep in mind what a little b**** you are before praising any more temperatures. B)

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