April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully the GFS will come around to the ECMWF. Not happening on the 12Z run.

[Jesse]

Hopefully the GFS will come around to the ECMWF. Not happening on the 12Z run.

Finding warm and sunny weather during one of the warmest, sunniest Aprils in recent memory can be a maddening endeavor.

[TT-SEA]

Finding warm and sunny weather during one of the warmest, sunniest Aprils in recent memory can be a maddening endeavor.

Its been mostly cloudy here for most of the last 6 days. Thursday afternoon was a lucky break.

 

I will take as much nice weather as nature serves up and never feel the need to rush back to crappy. That is the default here.

[Front Ranger]

Its been mostly cloudy here for most of the last 6 days. Thursday afternoon was a lucky break.

 

I will take as much nice weather as nature serves up and never feel the need to rush back to crappy. That is the default here.

 

Someone told me it only rains 10% of the time in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Someone told me it only rains 10% of the time in Seattle.

So. Never feel guilty or anxious about nice weather that nature delivers here.

[Jesse]

So. Never feel guilty or anxious about nice weather that nature delivers here.

Everyone's "nice" is different. Matt has a really hard time with that one too.

[TT-SEA]

Everyone's "nice" is different. Matt has a really hard time with that one too.

So what.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Jesse should move to Barrow, AK or Longyearbyen. South Pole would have the ultimate cold, but I don't think any human could survive that kind of weather.

[Deweydog]

Everyone's "nice" is different. Matt has a really hard time with that one too.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just like the real marine layer kills off the sunshine, I "Mr Marine Layer" have killed off the activity here. Or maybe everyone (Jesse excluded) is outside enjoying the nice weather.

[Jesse]

Beautiful hike in Columbia Hills State Park this afternoon, before heading to the Hood River Cider Fest later on.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Dipped to 41 this morning. now on the rise again. Amazing weather!

[TT-SEA]

Dipped to 41 this morning. now on the rise again. Amazing weather!

 

A little east wind here overnight... low of 54.    Already almost 60.  

[Jesse]

A little east wind here overnight... low of 54.    Already almost 60.  

 

Does your warmer low cancel his out?

 

At least we know that no one sustained any frost bite on the quest to retrieve the paper this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Does your low cancel his out?

 

 

Sensitive about current conditions huh?  

 

Its a noticeably warm morning here.   

[TT-SEA]

 

At least we know that no one sustained any frost bite on the quest to retrieve the paper this morning. 

 

It was a very pleasant walk out there... I even lingered to admire the beauty of the morning.  

[Jesse]

It was a very pleasant walk out there... I even lingered to admire the beauty of the morning.

Mornings of all shapes and sizes are beautiful. Even the curvy ones.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Beautiful hike in Columbia Hills State Park this afternoon, before heading to the Hood River Cider Fest later on.

image.png

Beautiful indeed, but you would like it even better with thick gray skies and some light rain with temperatures in the upper 40s.

 

Some people could not stand to go to a place like Hawaii for vacation due to the warm weather. Then I saw a website that said somebody moved to Seattle because persistent gray skies made them happy

[Jesse]

Would be nice to see some warm core convection coming out of this warm spell.

[Jesse]

12Z EURO says this month could give April 1926 a run for its money.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EURO says this month could give April 1926 a run for its money.

Let's hope we stick with 1926 through the entire year. Just an incredible spring, summer, and fall with a fading strong Nino.

[James Jones]

12Z EURO says this month could give April 1926 a run for its money.

OLM right now is about a degree ahead of its warmest April on record, so the last week of the month would really have to come through in the clutch to avoid it. Front Ranger must be real nervous.

[Jesse]

Let's hope we stick with 1926 through the entire year. Just an incredible spring, summer, and fall with a fading strong Nino.

 

Why weren't those seasons credible?

[TT-SEA]

Why weren't those seasons credible?

 

 

Are you asking why we won't follow 1926?

 

Because clearly we are on a path to follow 1983 and 1983 only.   

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... 76 with an occasional warm east breeze.

 

Its going to be a very warm night out here.   

[Deweydog]

PDX's record high to beat today was from..................................................................................................... 1983.  

[Deweydog]

And... the 1983 world series champion?  The Baltimore Orioles.  

 

They currently lead their division with an 8-3 record.  

[TT-SEA]

PDX's record high to beat today was from..................................................................................................... 1983.  

 

 

Yep... its 1983.

[Phil]

Let's hope we stick with 1926 through the entire year. Just an incredible spring, summer, and fall with a fading strong Nino.

If you're looking for analogs, I'd recommend avoiding 1926 altogether. Looking at the HADISST dataset, note the warm Equatorial Pacific SSTAs/+ENSO persisting through the summer, with relatively colder SSTAs in the IO/MT domain, where they'll typically warm during a transition into La Niña, which isn't analogous to this year. When you have relatively warmer SSTAs in the Pacific relative to the IO/MT, the low-frequency forcing is diluted w/ relatively stronger Pacific forcing, and relatively weaker IO/MT forcing.

 

April 1926:

 

 

May 1926:

 

 

June 1926:

 

 

July 1926:

 

 

August 1926:

 

[Front Ranger]

OLM right now is about a degree ahead of its warmest April on record, so the last week of the month would really have to come through in the clutch to avoid it. Front Ranger must be real nervous.

 

Super nervous.

 

Sadly, OLM wasn't around in 1926 (no airports in WA then!), so we can't compare directly there.

 

However, there are thankfully a few other non-UHI afflicted stations that were around then and still are now.

[TT-SEA]

If you're looking for analogs, I'd recommend avoiding 1926 altogether. Looking at the HADISST dataset, note the warm Equatorial Pacific SSTAs/+ENSO persisting through the summer, with relatively colder SSTAs in the IO/MT domain, where they'll typically warm during a transition into La Niña, which isn't analogous to this year. When you have relatively warmer SSTAs in the Pacific relative to the IO/MT, the low-frequency forcing is diluted w/ relatively stronger Pacific forcing, and relatively weaker IO/MT forcing.

 

April 1926:

 

image.png

 

May 1926:

 

image.png

 

June 1926:

 

image.png

 

July 1926:

 

image.png

 

August 1926:

 

image.png

 

 

Yep... worst analog ever in the history of analogs.

 

Even though the April 1926 SSTA map looks almost identical to now.

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.14.2016.gif

[Phil]

I never said that, dude. However, there are seasonal limitations to analogs, and 1926 demonstrates/will demonstrate this perfectly, in my opinion.

 

While 1926, along with a slew of additional years, work well as analogs during the spring, their viability rapidly dwindles as their progressions diverge due to differences in external forcings and internal resonances/inertia. While 1926 appears behaviorally analogous now, this will cease to be the case as we go forward, for reasons I'm sure you already understand.

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS Medford has been consistently talking about more thunderstorms on the way Tuesday. I'm already way over average for April t'storm occurrences (avg is

 

To make sure April t'storms are uncommon, just calculated 1980-2015 average looking through weather history. I came up with 0.7 t'storm days in April. Many zero years, occasionally a 2 or 1. There was a 3 in 1990, and that was a huge year for thunderstorms in Klamath Falls (25 recorded that year). So far I'm at 5 this April, first one being on 04/03 and last on 04/12. Interesting that in the entire 1980's only 4 April thunderstorms occurred, and from 1980-1985 none occurred.

[Jesse]

Are you asking why we won't follow 1926?

 

Because clearly we are on a path to follow 1983 and 1983 only.

I just don't know how to take something like the word "incredible" and apply it to objective analog analysis.

[BLI snowman]

I can't believe how many different great analogs we have this year. Have we ever had a year with so many to choose from? The answer is no, we haven't, because 2016 has more years before it than any other year ever. What a time to be alive.

[Jesse]

I can't believe how many different great analogs we have this year. Have we ever had a year with so many to choose from? The answer is no, we haven't, because 2016 has more years before it than any other year ever. What a time to be alive.

I think 2016 actually has fewer years before it than 1926. That was a really incredible year.

[TT-SEA]

I think 2016 actually has fewer years before it than 1926. That was a really incredible year.

It was. Great seasonal extremes including winter.

[Jesse]

It was. Great seasonal extremes including winter.

I get what you're trying to say. But arguing in favor of an analog based on how "incredible" the seasons were doesn't really hold up in what is supposed to be a somewhat scientific discussion of potential analogs. What type of patterns predominated at 500mb? How did the 1926 Niño fade vs how the 2016 one appears to be/is forecasted to?

[Deweydog]

I think we should officially jump the shark and prohibit all present-tense discussion and focus entirely on the past from now on.

[Jesse]

I think we should officially jump the shark and prohibit all present-tense discussion and focus entirely on the past from now on.

Do you think we'll be able to book Henry Winkler?