Deweydog Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 Do you think we'll be able to book Henry Winkler?He's fat now and pushing reverse mortgages. Climate change has not been friendly to him. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 I get what you're trying to say. But arguing in favor of an analog based on how "incredible" the seasons were doesn't really hold up in what is supposed to be a somewhat scientific discussion of potential analogs. What type of patterns predominated at 500mb? How did the 1926 Niño fade vs how the 2016 one appears to be/is forecasted to? None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated. I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated. I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence. I agree that this summer could be warm too. I don't know about June being quite near record levels though. June 2015 I smashed my previous record average high by multiple degrees. (84.6 avg high June 2015, 79.8 avg high June 2003) So far there are things looking a lot like 2004 in some aspects. Wintery start in both lowlands and mountains, warm April... etc. Some naysayers think summer is going to be like 2000-2002 but I doubt that. 2004 also brought us a decent summer. Not quite "hot" but decent. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 Impressive day on the coast. Looks like Astoria set a new monthly record. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated. I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence.You are way too arrogant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 You are way too arrogant. Arrogant but also an optimist Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 Arrogant but also an optimist No, he's going for a warmer summer. That's pessimistic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 You are way too arrogant.Would a cold feeling be labeled arrogant, Mr. Objectivity? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 Would a cold feeling be labeled arrogant, Mr. Objectivity?If it wasn't at all based in fact and going against more " scientific" approaches, then yes, yes it would. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 No, he's going for a warmer summer. That's pessimistic. I'm confident we're through with the worst of summer weather for a little while. Maybe in another 5-6 years look forward to some great heatwaves and a June wave or two. A couple weeks of June could still have gloom! That happened even in years such as 2009, what 10-12 days after a severe t'storm outbreak and heat wave? 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 17, 2016 Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 I'm feeling a big mid or late summer cool stretch to attempt to make up for this April ridiculousness. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 If it wasn't at all based in fact and going against more " scientific" approaches, then yes, yes it would. Your history indicates otherwise. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Your history indicates otherwise.Okie dokie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I'm feeling a big mid or late summer cool stretch to attempt to make up for this April ridiculousness.Science! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Science!Law of averages. You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 OLM broke their daily record high today from...1983! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Law of averages. You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.I think it's well established our current cycle of warmth is waning. After all, if it isn't we'd be in pretty much inexplicable territory. Arrogance and opinion-related anxiety notwithstanding. That said, the whole "payback" thing is more of an intraseasonal thing if you ask me. Your extrapolation, based more on wishful thinking of course, is even less scientific. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I think it's well established our current cycle of warmth is waning. After all, if it isn't we'd be in pretty much inexplicable territory. Arrogance and opinion-related anxiety notwithstanding. That said, the whole "payback" thing is more of an intraseasonal thing if you ask me. Your extrapolation, based more on wishful thinking of course, is even less scientific. I would prefer a cooler summer than the last 2 years. Last summer was taxing on the vegetation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Gorgeous weekend... yard is happy now. All the spring weeding and planting is done. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I would prefer a cooler summer than the last 2 years. Last summer was taxing on the vegetation.No doubt. I would just LOVE to do the math on how much we spent on irrigation and now some landscape renovations because of the last two warm seasons. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Law of averages. You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.That's not how the law of averages works. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Law of averages. You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely. FWIW... Top 5 warmest Aprils at PDX: 2004, 1989, 1992, 1941, 1990. 2004 was followed by a warm summer, although it did have a cooler than normal September. 1989 was well below normal in July/August. Warm September, though. 1992 had a warm summer, but was cooler than normal in September. 1941 had a very warm July, but a very cool September. 1990 was a warm summer with a very warm September. 3/5 cooler than normal Septembers. SCORE!! 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I bet we have a wet trough in July. We're due!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 That's not how the law of averages works."Law of Averages: Noun The principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average." Seems like it fits to me. We are so crazy warm right now that some sort of other shoe dropping in the coming months seems likely. Matt calls it payback theory and usually is a big proponent of it if it means warmth down the road or if I'm not saying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 "Law of Averages: Noun The principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average." Seems like it fits to me. We are so crazy warm right now that some sort of other shoe dropping in the coming months seems likely. Matt calls it payback theory and usually is a big proponent of it if it means warmth down the road or if I'm not saying it. "As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages Warm months are not more likely to be followed up by cool ones. Nor are warm Springs. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 "As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages Warm months are not more likely to be followed up by cool ones. Nor are warm Springs.Looking at the big picture things tend to average out toward climo. You are either reading too much into this statement or you are being purposefully obtuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Looking at the big picture things tend to average out toward climo. You are either reading too much into this statement or you are being purposefully obtuse.Of course. But it isn't that short term anomalies get "balanced out" by opposite anomalies. It's just that they become insignificant over the long term. If the balancing out theory were correct, warm months/seasons/years would be more likely to be followed by cool ones and vice versa. That just isn't the case. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Of course. But it isn't that short term anomalies get "balanced out" by opposite anomalies. It's just that they become insignificant over the long term. If the balancing out theory were correct, warm months/seasons/years would be more likely to be followed by cool ones and vice versa. That just isn't the case.You are correct, it isn't. But if you looked at our climate on a large scale you would likely see that multi-year stretches of warm years are more likely to be followed by multi-year stretches of cool ones. Lots of ups and downs oscillating around a steadily climbing mean, but long periods of up generally are answered by longish (but perhaps not completely equal) periods of down. It is really just a question of time scale. Obviously a warm spell in April is not going to clench a cool summer period for us. Just like a troughy spring and summer does not statistically make a warm autumn more likely, but people throw that kind of thing around all the time here and don't really catch a lot of flack for it. It is kind of interesting to use logic similar to those prognosticating another warm warm season, and seeing how much scrutiny a forecast using the same "methodology" is put under for simply going the other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 FWIW... Top 5 warmest Aprils at PDX: 2004, 1989, 1992, 1941, 1990. 2004 was followed by a warm summer, although it did have a cooler than normal September. 1989 was well below normal in July/August. Warm September, though. 1992 had a warm summer, but was cooler than normal in September. 1941 had a very warm July, but a very cool September. 1990 was a warm summer with a very warm September. 3/5 cooler than normal Septembers. SCORE!!I believe that 1934 is the April benchmark here. Before pdx's time or did it not make the grade down that way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I believe that 1934 is the April benchmark here. Before pdx's time or did it not make the grade down that way? PDX records only go back to 1940, but Aprils 1926 and 1934 were first and second warmest in downtown history (records back to 1871), with respective monthly averages of 60.2 and 59.8 PDX could end up somewhere in the 58-60 degree ballpark for average temp if some warmer models are to be believed. The next few days are going to do a number on an already ridiculously inflated monthly average for many stations. Even with a close to average last week or so of the month it would be tough to recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Kelso has been a hot spot lately. 86 there today. Also hit 86 in Newport, perhaps even more impressively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Visible daylight in the western sky at 9 p.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Visible daylight in the western sky at 9 p.m. Could be a bright summer on the way. A lot of 9:00pm+ sunset days possible this year if offshore SSTs cooperate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Also of interest in the sky this evening is a very close Moon and Jupiter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Spectacular weekend! Not often you can be outside wearing shorts and a short sleeved shirt at 8pm on a mid April evening and be comfortable! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 I bet we have a wet trough in July. We're due!!! Or another long series of wet ULL's feeding t'storms into Klamath Falls. That happened last year Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 Could be a bright summer on the way. A lot of 9:00pm+ sunset days possible this year if offshore SSTs cooperate.So the sea surface temperatures would determine what time the sun sets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 A low of 62 here. 67 right now in the valley and the sun has not even cleared Mt. Si yet down there. Also... the sun sets at 8 p.m. here now. http://s4.postimg.org/5114bbp6l/Untitled.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 So the sea surface temperatures would determine what time the sun sets? Sarcasm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 18, 2016 Report Share Posted April 18, 2016 It is really difficult to get to upset over really nice weather in April. Yesterday was so gorgeous. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.