April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Euro shows the last 1/3 of the month being generally near normal.

 

I certainly don't get the sense that any significant troughing or cold anomaly period awaits us on the back end of this ridge. More like last year in the sense that the peaks are long lived and significant and the valleys are just relatively brief periods of near normal or even slightly above normal temperatures. We simply aren't seeing -PNA patterns right now. Maybe that will change by the time summer wavelength season is upon us. 

[IbrChris]

I certainly don't get the sense that any significant troughing or cold anomaly period awaits us on the back end of this ridge. More like last year in the sense that the peaks are long lived and significant and the valleys are just relatively brief periods of near normal or even slightly above normal temperatures. We simply aren't seeing -PNA patterns right now. Maybe that will change by the time summer wavelength season is upon us. 

Yeah a couple days (2-3) of showers and cool temps...maybe some cold-core tstorms. Highs mainly mid-upper 50s.

[Jesse]

I certainly don't get the sense that any significant troughing or cold anomaly period awaits us on the back end of this ridge. More like last year in the sense that the peaks are long lived and significant and the valleys are just relatively brief periods of near normal or even slightly above normal temperatures. We simply aren't seeing -PNA patterns right now. Maybe that will change by the time summer wavelength season is upon us. 

 

No doubt. You would think that we would see some substantial troughing or something on the backside of a warm spell of this magnitude (law of averages!), but as you said, near to slightly below average will likely be the best we can do. Story of the last few years.

 

I could definitely see that last part coming to fruition. Things feel ripe for some sort of large scale change in the coming months.

[BLI snowman]

No doubt. You would think that we would see some substantial troughing or something on the backside of a warm spell of this magnitude (law of averages!), but as you said, near to slightly below average will likely be the best we can do. Story of the last few years.

 

I could definitely see that last part coming to fruition. Things feel ripe for some sort of large scale change in the coming months.

 

Well I certainly tend to think that the collapse of such a strong ENSO event will yield a more legitimate shakeup at a certain point this year, as opposed to last year when we were seemingly on pretty similar footing in terms of persistent warm anomalies and +PNA heading into the warm season, but also were going into a warm ENSO event.

 

This year it's more a matter of when than if. I could really see mid-summer going either way at this point. 

[Jesse]

Well I certainly tend to think that the collapse of such a strong ENSO event will yield a more legitimate shakeup at a certain point this year, as opposed to last year when we were seemingly on pretty similar footing in terms of persistent warm anomalies and +PNA heading into the warm season, but also were going into a warm ENSO event.

 

This year it's more a matter of when than if. I could really see mid-summer going either way at this point. 

 

Yeah, summer is definitely a question mark. The later in the season it gets the more likely it is that we see things start to shift.

 

2007 could be a good analog for this summer.

[MossMan]

 Could get a little exciting!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
  347 PM PDT TUE APR 19 2016

  LOOKING LIKE A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
  THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS ON WED EVNG. A NEGATIVELY TILTED
  SHORTWAVE --- CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CAL COAST --- WILL LIFT N-NE
  THROUGH WRN WA WED NGT. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...THE AIR MASS WILL
  BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF
  OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND POSSIBLY THE OLYMPICS. SE FLOW ALOFT
  WILL THEN WANT TO TAKE STORMS OUT ACROSS THE WRN WA LOWLANDS...
  PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO PUGET SOUND. SOME SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
  SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL FAVOR LOOSE ORGANIZATION
  OF THE STORMS...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES OF
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
 

[Front Ranger]

Even 4-6 degrees cooler up north would still be in (former) monthly record territory, oh downplaying one.

 

Not for most stations.

[Jesse]

Not for most stations.

Score!!

[IbrChris]

88 at PDX...this looks like the 2nd warmest April day in the PDX era after April 30, 1998 (90).

[IbrChris]

I am ready for some normal April weather. I miss the cold-core Cu and hit/miss showers. Not a big fan of stratiform rain but even our weak convection is something mildly interesting. 

[IbrChris]

 Could get a little exciting!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

  347 PM PDT TUE APR 19 2016

 

  LOOKING LIKE A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN

  THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS ON WED EVNG. A NEGATIVELY TILTED

  SHORTWAVE --- CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CAL COAST --- WILL LIFT N-NE

  THROUGH WRN WA WED NGT. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...THE AIR MASS WILL

  BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF

  OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND POSSIBLY THE OLYMPICS. SE FLOW ALOFT

  WILL THEN WANT TO TAKE STORMS OUT ACROSS THE WRN WA LOWLANDS...

  PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO PUGET SOUND. SOME SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL

  SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL FAVOR LOOSE ORGANIZATION

  OF THE STORMS...WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES OF

  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

 

All depends on timing...Portland NWS thinks the neg-tilt trough impacts areas north of Salem during late afternoon/early evening peak heating but IMO the more exciting weather in terms of convection would be discrete elevated cells that form ahead of the shortwave...although given the relatively decent strength of the feature elevated convection could form in a semi-linear mode along the front. I'm not sold on much excitement in western OR...personally I'd think Kelso-Seattle tomorrow evening for a chase target.

[Front Ranger]

All depends on timing...Portland NWS thinks the neg-tilt trough impacts areas north of Salem during late afternoon/early evening peak heating but IMO the more exciting weather in terms of convection would be discrete elevated cells that form ahead of the shortwave...although given the relatively decent strength of the feature elevated convection could form in a semi-linear mode along the front. I'm not sold on much excitement in western OR...personally I'd think Kelso-Seattle tomorrow evening for a chase target.

 

 

I laugh, but then I remember when I lived there I used to go on snow chases all the time. One night I drove from Tacoma all the way past Yelm hunting flakes.

[IbrChris]

 

I laugh, but then I remember when I lived there I used to go on snow chases all the time. One night I drove from Tacoma all the way past Yelm hunting flakes.

I use the term "chase" loosely...seeking out some lightning and maybe a bit of structure from an elevated storm or two.

[Front Ranger]

I use the term "chase" loosely...seeking out some lightning and maybe a bit of structure from an elevated storm or two.

 

Hey, I want to see a PNW storm chasing video! Make it happen, forum.

[Phil]

I use the term "chase" loosely...seeking out some lightning and maybe a bit of structure from an elevated storm or two.

If you're willing to chase for a few lightning bolts, throw your chips in and seek out the big stuff OK/KS/AR/MO. I'm headed back out next month after my semester ends. Literally took one supercell to reel me in, now nothing else satisfies my storm craving.

 

All you really have to do is pick a good week, try to avoid core punching, and make sure to always have an escape route when in the vicinity of a meso/supercell.

[Front Ranger]

If you're willing to chase for a few lightning bolts, throw your chips in and seek out the big stuff OK/KS/AR/MO. I was hooked instantly after my first chase, and nothing else satisfies my storm craving now.

 

I'm headed back out next month after my semester ends. All you really have to do is pick a good week, try to avoid core punching, and make sure to always have an escape route when in the vicinity of a meso/supercell.

 

Not to be local-centric, but the plains of eastern CO is one of the best parts of the country for beginning storm chasers. It's very flat, the storms tend to be slow-movers, and while you still get lots of EF-1 and EF-2 tornadoes and supercells, the chances of getting in the way of an extremely dangerous storm are less than if you're further east in Tornado Alley.

 

I've never been storm chasing in OK, KS, AR, MO, but I hear that the further east you go, the harder it gets due to terrain. Especially AR and MO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not to be local-centric, but the plains of eastern CO is one of the best parts of the country for beginning storm chasers. It's very flat, the storms tend to be slow-movers, and while you still get lots of EF-1 and EF-2 tornadoes and supercells, the chances of getting in the way of an extremely dangerous storm are less than if you're further east in Tornado Alley.

 

I've never been storm chasing in OK, KS, AR, MO, but I hear that the further east you go, the harder it gets due to terrain. Especially AR and MO.

 

I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. 99% of the storms I saw were garden variety, even the warned storms. I lived in kind of a dead zone, further west toward Enid and OKC sees huge storms and further east toward Joplin sees them blow up. The Picher tornado in 2008 spawned from a thunderstorm that went just north of where I lived and absolutely exploded about 50 miles east. 

[Timmy Supercell]

77/33 in Klamath Falls today. Now onto wishing for t'storms late tonight into tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. 99% of the storms I saw were garden variety, even the warned storms. I lived in kind of a dead zone, further west toward Enid and OKC sees huge storms and further east toward Joplin sees them blow up. The Picher tornado in 2008 spawned from a thunderstorm that went just north of where I lived and absolutely exploded about 50 miles east. 

 

And I will assume even Oklahoma City sees more than you did. There are a lot of youtube videos of hail big enough to smash windows in OKC on numerous occasions. What was your biggest hail that whole time?

[Phil]

Not to be local-centric, but the plains of eastern CO is one of the best parts of the country for beginning storm chasers. It's very flat, the storms tend to be slow-movers, and while you still get lots of EF-1 and EF-2 tornadoes and supercells, the chances of getting in the way of an extremely dangerous storm are less than if you're further east in Tornado Alley.

 

I've never been storm chasing in OK, KS, AR, MO, but I hear that the further east you go, the harder it gets due to terrain. Especially AR and MO.

Interesting.

 

Thing is, the topographical aspect is all relative. Having chased in my area for years beforehand (terrible area for chasing), I found AR/MO to be much easier comparatively. I actually had my closest brush with big trouble in rural VA after making a wrong turn and ending up in an RFD just south of the velocity couplet.

 

I know a lot of people who will avoid chasing in these supposedly "challenging" areas without ever having been there. Yeah, MO/AR are topographically challenging in spots (trees, towns, and skinny/windy roads), but I'm sure it's topographically easier than say, the PNW, for example.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

77/33 in Klamath Falls today. Now onto wishing for t'storms late tonight into tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

 

And I will assume even Oklahoma City sees more than you did. There are a lot of youtube videos of hail big enough to smash windows in OKC on numerous occasions. What was your biggest hail that whole time?

 

 

It hailed once in the 4 years I lived there pea sized, with a couple dime size. Just for a few minutes. 

[TT-SEA]

Convection moving up from the south at 5 p.m. tomorrow per the HRRR...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016042000/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f24.png

[Deweydog]

Convection moving up from the south at 5 p.m. tomorrow per the HRRR...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016042000/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f24.png

Seems like a pretty decent setup. Good diffluence, trigger mechanism with the marine push.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like a pretty decent setup. Good diffluence, trigger mechanism with the marine push.

 

 

00Z GFS is even more bullish and faster,

[Jbolin]

00Z GFS is even more bullish and faster,

Yes but necessary parameters are less favorable. LI's have decreased, CAPE is laughable and the LFC/LCL's are not favorable IMHO

 

Add into the mix the increased dry air over the area and this could be a minuscule if any event.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the last third of April is going to be cool and showery per the 00Z GFS.

 

Going to put a good dent in the warm monthly departures.   

[Deweydog]

Looks like the last third of April is going to be cool and showery per the 00Z GFS.

 

Going to put a good dent in the warm monthly departures.

Too soon! Too soon!

 

Would someone please think about the paybacks???

[Jesse]

Too soon! Too soon!

 

Would someone please think about the paybacks???

 

Don't worry Matt, this summer will still probably be warmer than an average one in Chinook.

[Deweydog]

Don't worry Matt, this summer will still probably be warmer than an average one in Chinook.

Lots of 69/49 spreads will do it!

 

I can hook you up with a good realtor down there...

[Jesse]

Lots of 69/49 spreads will do it!

 

I can hook you up with a good realtor down there...

 

I am fine with our normal summer weather in the Portland area.

 

Don't need to pull Redding up here every year to find contentment.

[TT-SEA]

Both the 00Z GFS and Canadian put us in a long-term trough position through the end of their runs.

 

Looks like summer is over.   Back to school sales coming soon?   Have to get the winter stuff back out... seems like we just put it away.     Goes by faster every year.

[Deweydog]

Both the 00Z GFS and Canadian put us in a long-term trough position through the end of their runs.

 

Looks like summer is over. Back to school sales coming soon?

Are you kidding? Back to school sales start before we even hit summer's peak.

[TT-SEA]

Are you kidding? Back to school sales start before we even hit summer's peak.

 

 

We are past peak now.   Trees look a little stressed... might be the heat or could be the first sign of fall?    All part of the circle of life.

[Jesse]

Both the 00Z GFS and Canadian put us in a long-term trough position through the end of their runs.

 

Looks like summer is over.   Back to school sales coming soon?   Have to get the winter stuff back out... seems like we just put it away.     Goes by faster every year.

 

I envision another, non-sarcastic version of the post somewhere around the beginning of August.

[Deweydog]

We are past peak now. Trees look a little stressed... might be the heat or could be the first sign of fall? All part of the circle of life.

That's what I'm saying. Sales should have started weeks ago. Target merchandisers really dropped the ball on this one.

[Deweydog]

I envision another, non-sarcastic version of the post somewhere around the beginning of August.

A repeat of last August?

[Jesse]

A repeat of last August?

 

We all know that's what you are pulling for.

[Deweydog]

We all know that's what you are pulling for.

Last August was pretty blah. Unremarkable month in a remarkable season.

 

And pulling for weather? Dumb.

[Jesse]

Last August was pretty blah. Unremarkable month in a remarkable season.

 

And pulling for weather? Dumb.

 

Are you hoping to see thunderstorms tomorrow? Better get the dunce cap ready if so, then.

[Deweydog]

Are you hoping to see thunderstorms tomorrow? Better get the dunce cap ready if so, then.

No.

 

I have no input on the issue. Fun to track either way, hit and miss.

[Jesse]

No.

 

I have no input on the issue. Fun to track either way, hit and miss.

 

Ok.