Tom Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 As promised, we are fast approaching met Summer and it seems like a near average to slightly below normal month may be on tap near the Lakes/Midwest. A slow start to a hot summer??? Most models have been forecasting it to be a hot summer near the Lakes. Let's discuss. CFSv2 and CPC thinking below... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201606.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201606.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif I wouldn't mind a drier pattern. It seems to have rained every other day for the second half of May. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 CFS siding with cool and somewhat wet June then. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'm going avg precip here based on the CFS. I see that it flips every few runs so I'm reluctant to side either way. Regards to temps, I'll side slightly below normal. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I think the CFS actually has a fairly solid call on this one. Starting pretty below normal for me this month and steadily heading towards normal by month's end sounds pretty good to me. Late summer down here is going to be brutal though in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Here is the latest CanSIPS June Outlook...it pretty much nailed May's outlook last month... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016060100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016060100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png Here is the NMME outlook... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016050800/nmme_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016050800/nmme_apcpna_month_us_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 At OKwx, CFSv2 not seeing much heat this summer down by you. It's been pretty steady on this idea for a couple months now. As the jet continues to weaken and retreat north, I'm wondering how much longer this rainy pattern will continue. If it doesn't budge, I doubt you will see much sustained heat this summer down there. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I wouldn't mind a drier pattern. It seems to have rained every other day for the second half of May. it's been a different story for some of us a bit further east haven't had measurable rain in almost 3 weeks now imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 it's been a different story for some of us a bit further east spi.gif haven't had measurable rain in almost 3 weeks now imbyWow, didn't know it was that dry in Michigan. Maybe with the troughy pattern that is poised to head into the Lakes later this weekend will spark some storms and needed rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 At OKwx, CFSv2 not seeing much heat this summer down by you. It's been pretty steady on this idea for a couple months now. As the jet continues to weaken and retreat north, I'm wondering how much longer this rainy pattern will continue. If it doesn't budge, I doubt you will see much sustained heat this summer down there. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gifI guess that'd be fine too. Lol. As long as it doesn't stay cooler than average all summer then "warm up" again during fall and winter I will be a pretty happy camper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 4, 2016 Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 Weather has been perfect the last two days. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Looks like some storms to the west that will make an appearance before dawn? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 4, 2016 Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 I picked up 0.91" of rain early this morning from a decent line of storms. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 Some of the blistering heat in the desert southwest will move east and the Plains will see the heat build in Thu-Sun. Next weekend looks toasty around here as well. The A/C's will be humming for sure. Meantime, looking forward to the "brief" cool down Sun-Wed around here with cool nights and low dewpoints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 4, 2016 Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 2.10" overnight. Looking nice for a few days before the heat builds in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 4, 2016 Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 Some of the blistering heat in the desert southwest will move east and the Plains will see the heat build in Thu-Sun. Next weekend looks toasty around here as well. The A/C's will be humming for sure. Meantime, looking forward to the "brief" cool down Sun-Wed around here with cool nights and low dewpoints. 12z GFS cooled it off again some. Today is really cool. Only at 66°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2016 12z GFS cooled it off again some. Today is really cool. Only at 66°.Got another soaker today with heavy showers, no lighting, just pouring rains. I've never had to water the garden this season yet...bonus. Euro pumps the ridge all the way through the Lakes. Those arctic easterlies and creating so much blocking near Greenland that the GFS is having a tough time trying to figure out what to do near the Lakes. I don't mind if we do get into some heat and a warmer weekend. Might also spawn a summer "ring of fire" pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 5, 2016 Report Share Posted June 5, 2016 0.37" of rain here today. I hope it dries out for several days now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm definitely going to try and enjoy these cooler days before the torch builds in. The Plains are going to see the worst of it. Some very good sleeping ahead Sun-Wed with over night lows in the 50's, parts of MI will probably dip into the 40's for a night or two Tue/Wed. @ Geo's, I agree, we need to dry out a bit around here, but we may be seeing some isolated storms later today and tomorrow. Wonder if we will manage to hit 90F or higher for 3+ days this week/weekend to constitute an official heat wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 5, 2016 Report Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm definitely going to try and enjoy these cooler days before the torch builds in. The Plains are going to see the worst of it. Some very good sleeping ahead Sun-Wed with over night lows in the 50's, parts of MI will probably dip into the 40's for a night or two Tue/Wed. @ Geo's, I agree, we need to dry out a bit around here, but we may be seeing some isolated storms later today and tomorrow. Wonder if we will manage to hit 90F or higher for 3+ days this week/weekend to constitute an official heat wave. I wish this weather could be the rule the rest of the summer. Maybe slightly less windy. Looks like low in the 40s up this way several nights, and 30s in the Northwoods! GFS is showing a really hot day on Saturday, then Sunday it gets interrupted by a NE wind, before coming back on day 8. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2016 I wish this weather could be the rule the rest of the summer. Maybe slightly less windy. Looks like low in the 40s up this way several nights, and 30s in the Northwoods! GFS is showing a really hot day on Saturday, then Sunday it gets interrupted by a NE wind, before coming back on day 8.The battle...Euro has a full blown ridge all the way through the U.S/Canadian border. It's interesting, from the Rockies to the central Plains, CPC says its going to roast with minimal precip. Pattern change from the wet Spring in NE/KS region??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Ring of Fire pattern is going to fire up later this weekend into the following week. I like tracking long duration Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). Should be some intense storms in the coming 1-2 week period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 6, 2016 Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 Where are these thunderstorms coming from!? Wasn't forecasted to rain today... weird day. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's going to get hot and humid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 6, 2016 Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 After a nice sunny (but dry) 10 day stretch, we got some much needed rain over the weekend across SMI. In my area, it was the nice steady soaking in style too, not the flash flood 80% runs off type. Noticed when I cut my grass Saturday there were dry spots showing up. This sun angle is an evapo-machine on 'roids right now. Got hit with (3) rounds including a mild T-shower Sunday morning so everything should've been affected in a positive way. The winds were even a bit chilly yesterday with mostly cloudy conditions so the rain that fell wasn't getting immediately hit by the sun and heat again. Gave it some time to linger, then we got that line of dying T-showers overnight to keep the theme playing. With any luck, we get the ring-of-fire storms to do the same and avoid the drought conditions Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 After a nice sunny (but dry) 10 day stretch, we got some much needed rain over the weekend across SMI. In my area, it was the nice steady soaking in style too, not the flash flood 80% runs off type. Noticed when I cut my grass Saturday there were dry spots showing up. This sun angle is an evapo-machine on 'roids right now. Got hit with (3) rounds including a mild T-shower Sunday morning so everything should've been affected in a positive way. The winds were even a bit chilly yesterday with mostly cloudy conditions so the rain that fell wasn't getting immediately hit by the sun and heat again. Gave it some time to linger, then we got that line of dying T-showers overnight to keep the theme playing. With any luck, we get the ring-of-fire storms to do the same and avoid the drought conditions Over here, it seems like we have had the target on our back as we keep getting hit by storms. I was out and about last night in the city enjoying a street fest and we got hit by a quick thunder shower. Never ends! Today, there may be another chance of rain. I'm actually pretty stoked to see some heat this weekend. I want to head out to the beach this Saturday. Wouldn't mind a slight onshore breeze to cool the beaches though. As for the "Ring of Fire" pattern, I'd like to see some large storms...been a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 6, 2016 Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 Nice day today. Mid 70s, nice breezy. Few showers trying to pop up again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 6, 2016 Report Share Posted June 6, 2016 With a "Slight Risk" day over much of the LP of Mich, we're seeing some warned cells firing up and moving west to east. Had a pop-up shower with massive size r-drops within the past hour here in the Capital City. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Almost "fall-like" out there this morning...cool and breezy, reminds me of a mid/late September day. Temps have backed off here on Sun/Mon. Looks like the central/northern Plains are the ones that will feel the heat for a longer period of time. Euro has also backed off on temps here for Sun. GFS had the right idea all along from a few days ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Just looked at the GFS a bit deeper, Sunday may have temps in the 60's lakeside on Sun! What a wild swing if that pans out....the models are having problems in the medium/long range handling the arctic easterlies that have developed near Greenland over the last couple months and troughs that swing down underneath towards the Lakes. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060700/gfs_T2m_ncus_24.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Today feeling like September for sure. Only at 59° here at noon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Wow! Frost advisory for Northeastern Minnesota in June! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Yeah looks like a night to flip the furnace on! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Yeah looks like a night to flip the furnace on! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016060712/rgem_T2m_ncus_8.pngOne day I'm going to have to move to the UP of Michigan. Lol. Would be so nice to feel 30s in June. I guess that would only be nice if you don't live there and have to deal with the cold for 7 months a year though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Just looked at the GFS a bit deeper, Sunday may have temps in the 60's lakeside on Sun! What a wild swing if that pans out....the models are having problems in the medium/long range handling the arctic easterlies that have developed near Greenland over the last couple months and troughs that swing down underneath towards the Lakes. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060700/gfs_T2m_ncus_24.pngYeah, local met was mentioning a cold front moving in Sunday from the northeast. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Quite a powerhouse front for backdoor front standards. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 8, 2016 Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 It has been a very cool June day here in the Great Lakes area. Looks like the high here in Grand Rapids was only 63° and right now here at my house I have a temperature of 56° and not too far to the north of here the temperatures are only in the low 50’s and there are also many that are only in the 40’s. While not unheard of it still not pleasant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 8, 2016 Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 Today feeling like September for sure. Only at 59° here at noon.Here today looked more like late September or early October. Lots of clouds and a cold wind. Right now at my house it cloudy and 56° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2016 Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 Here today looked more like late September or early October. Lots of clouds and a cold wind. Right now at my house it cloudy and 56° Ditto here up until 7pm. Now it is clearing out. High of 62. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2016 Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 That's quite a trough/front. Actually it will be cold enough to snow downwind of Hudson Bay with this!Friday is looking the warmest in the mid 80s, then low 80s on Saturday, then Sunday looks as cool as today was. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 Tomorrow looks stormy for S WI/N IL/NW IN/SW MI. A good chance that someone will get hit hard with "training" thunderstorms as our first "ring of fire" pattern kicks in ahead of the warm up this weekend. First glimpse of our storms already developing in SW MN. Should be here locally just after sunrise or during the morning rush hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 9, 2016 Report Share Posted June 9, 2016 Storms lining up over top of me now. Nothing heavy though. Radar looks more intense than what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 9, 2016 Report Share Posted June 9, 2016 Made it to only 61° here today with upper 50s along the lake front today with sun! That is really something for early June. Pretty much putting all the yard chores on hold until Sunday now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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