Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 One caveat..my above analysis is reliant on the GEFS depiction of forcing progression and climatology. The ECMWF/GGEM ensembles paint a different picture, with more IO/MT forcing and less EPAC forcing. Taken verbatim, the analog suite changes somewhat. If you throw in the towel and look at all post-1950 ENSO analogs, you get this for July. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 The best overall matches as far as background forcing/ENSO progression are concerned. Variable-aggregated. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 So, it seems like regardless of how I stack the analogs, a troughy western US is favored in the means. I guess I could try sorting based on antecedent EPO/NAO waves, given they're somewhat anomalous this year. Maybe I'll try that for the heck of it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 So, it seems like regardless of how I stack the analogs, a troughy western US is favored in the means. I guess I could try sorting based on antecedent EPO/NAO waves, given they're somewhat anomalous this year. Maybe I'll try that for the heck of it. I thought you have been saying that for months now? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Latest update: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.30.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 I guess if you're uber-sensitive to it, sure. But really it's just... normal. Other than 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 I thought you have been saying that for months now?I have, yes. What's your point here? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Other than 2015.Hints of the 2050 normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Hints of the 2050 normal. This will likely be the last cold July we will see here. Ever. A cold July in 2042 will look a lot like July 2009. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 This will likely be the last cold July we will see here. Ever. A cold July in 2042 will look a lot like July 2009.At very least it will be the last one Tim sees here, since it's likely his wife will be making him move after this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 At very least it will be the last one Tim sees here, since it's likely his wife will be making him move after this summer. More fun stuff from Jesse! He sure is getting better. For the record... my wife has been praising the weather this summer. She is not a big fan of heat. Sunday and Monday were even too hot for her and she was giddy about the drizzle yesterday morning for her garden. She also runs in the evening and called yesterday "perfect". Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 More fun stuff from Jesse! He sure is getting better. For the record... my wife has been praising the weather this summer. She is not a big fan of heat. Sunday and Monday were even too hot for her and she was giddy about the drizzle yesterday morning for her garden. She also runs in the evening and called yesterday "perfect".Glad to hear it. I'm just remembering toll that 2010 and 2011 took. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Glad to hear it. I'm just remembering toll that 2010 and 2011 took. The worst of it for her was the 32 straight days with rain in May and June of 2010. That really was crazy... you could not get outside at a time of year when you really want to get outside. Marine layer does not usually cause that problem. She is not one to complain unless its really extreme. Thanks for your smarmy concern though! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Looks like, in developing La Niñas, the 180W-90E-90W forcing gradient is a good predictor of the NAO/NAM state. Interesting to note that older La Niñas featured more WPAC forcing vs modern Niñas. Years w/ more dateline forcing and post-90W forcing (somewhat similar to June of this year). Notice the +NAO. Years with less dateline forcing and more post-90E forcing. Notice the -NAO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Looks like, in developing La Niñas, the 180W-90E-90W forcing gradient is a good predictor of the NAO/NAM state. Interesting to note that older La Niñas featured more WPAC forcing vs modern Niñas. Years w/ more dateline forcing and post-90W forcing (somewhat similar to June of this year). Notice the +NAO. image.pngimage.png Years with less dateline forcing and more post-90E forcing. Notice the -NAO. image.pngimage.png Does this mean lots of snow??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Does this mean lots of snow???Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter). The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would. Map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter. The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range: image.jpeg Good thing we're getting it out the way now. Those slick roads make traffic a nightmare! LOL! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Good thing we're getting it out the way now. Those slick roads make traffic a nightmare! LOL!Summer is the new winter (our ancestors living in the early Holocene would agree). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter). The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr! image.jpeg Luckily its the clown GFS at long range! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Does this mean lots of snow??? Possibly mid-August and beyond once Nina forcing becomes the dominant background state. I would not expect much accumulating snow until late August though due to sun angle issues. Possibly earlier with an arctic air mass though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter). The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr! image.jpeg The ECMWF just 36 hours before the time frame on that map is not quite as frigid. Might be able to avoid freezing temps if the ECMWF is correct. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-11astI.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Luckily its the clown GFS at long range! Well, it's the GFS ensemble mean (sum of all members). So there was a notable shift all-around. Still, it's the GFS, so...yeah, need to be careful. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 The ECMWF just 36 hours before the time frame on that map is not quite as frigid. Might be able to avoid freezing temps if the ECMWF is correct. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-11astI.pngWell, the OP ECMWF has been just as chaotic in the skill scores as the GFS since Tuesday. Rough period coming up for the modeling (unstable/transitory in forcing aggregate given ongoing via hi-freq overlap). The noise will lead to medium range chaos, however the overall progression looks the same regardless of how everything shakes out. July should transition into a -AAM/-PNA after an early-month spike in both representative indices. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Through d10, the 12z EPS is a mess, poor agreement after d7. No real trend except for more -EPO/-NAM (higher heights poleward of PNA domain). The one trend I'm seeing across guidance is for a stronger AK/EPO block. The 12z EPS trended much higher with heights from the Aleutians to AK/EPO and the pole/NAM. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Dateline subsidence showing up in the extended range EPS (mid-July). The CCKW/MJO wave causing problems for the modeling (frequency is borderline for classification) is currently propagating into the EPAC. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Dateline subsidence showing up in the extended range EPS (mid-July). The CCKW/MJO wave causing problems for the modeling (frequency is borderline for classification) is currently propagating into the EPAC. image.jpeg This image clears it all up! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 This image clears it all up! Look at the smaller image below the VP/KW diagram as a longitude/latitude reference. The forecasted anomalies are sorted longitudinally with latitudinal averaging between 5N/5/S within that domain space. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Drier air definitely in place up here. Dewpoint is down 1 degree since this time yesterday at SEA. #chappedlips Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter). The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr! image.jpeg What a difference a year makes! Nice to see anomalies like that anytime of year IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 The solar activity has been astonishingly low already. We are seeing major runs of spotless days years before the minimum is expected to occur. Way ahead of the schedule we saw during the last cycle. Hopefully we will finally be able to verify that the recent grand maximum had a lot to do with the warming of the past several decades. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Holy crap! The first half of July actually looks cooler than normal. Pretty big news in what has been a century of mostly torrid summers thus far. I am loving the comfortable temps the past few days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Anomalous strong high pressure over the NE Pacific has dominated much of June and will continue well into July. That should keep things near to below normal most of the time. Mostly dry with comfortable temps is pretty hard to beat in the summer. No need for heat. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows significant cloudiness and cool weather for the next 10 days at least... and probably beyond. Sunshine is going to be hard to come by after today. 4th of July has trended much cooler and cloudier as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows significant cloudiness and cool weather for the next 10 days at least... and probably beyond. Sunshine is going to be hard to come by after today. 4th of July has trended much cooler and cloudier as well.Gotta love that La Niña convective background. I've noticed in cases like this, where we're on the threshold (as far as the feedback loops are concerned), models will underestimate the tendency to return to the said background state after excursions from it (they'll trend stronger with -PNA/-AAM as we get closer to the forecasted excursion). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Gotta love that La Niña convective background. I've noticed in cases like this, where we're on the threshold (as far as the feedback loops are concerned), models will underestimate the tendency to return to the said background state after excursions from it (they'll trend stronger with -PNA/-AAM as we get closer to the forecasted excursion). Definitely has been the case recently. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Definitely has been the case recently.I might've underestimated it myself, slow bias alive and well. The system just wants to build heights out over the Pacific this summer, and that sort of persistence during transitional periods is usually indicative of the background state going forward. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 I should mention that the above outlook was for the Seattle area. Looking at the ECMWF detailed map... the Portland area fares better next week with the main focus of troughing over southern BC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 I should mention that the above outlook was for the Seattle area. Looking at the ECMWF detailed map... the Portland area fares better next week with the main focus of troughing over southern BC.Definitely less precipitation down there, but still solidly below average temperature wise. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Through day11, the 12z EPS has trended somewhat deeper with the western troughing/-PNA, but the bigger shift is a much stronger SE/E US ridge and stronger -NAO. That's two consecutive EPS runs to follow this trend, in regards to both. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 The 18z GFS is attempting a weird vorticity handoff between the western trough and the tropical cyclone in the eastern tropical Pacific. Bizarre exchanges of energy often lead to bizarre patterns later on, so this run should be interesting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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